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remery said..
The trend line is a trend line calculated by Excel. Here's the equation for the line if you would like to check...

Not sure how you think anyone can check without the base data. Unless we are supposed to scale the values from the chart.

So, I have now scaled all the values from the chart and can confirm that the pre-1965 data is taken from a weather station on the seafront and the post-1965 data is taken from a totally different weather station 12km inland. Further, if I use Excel to apply a trend line to each set of data from the two different stations they show pre-1965 was flat and post-1965 is a declining trend in the number of days=>30 at Albany airport.

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remery said..
To put the impact of climate change into windsurfing perspective I got to thinking about the graph above of days at or above 30 degrees in Perth. It occured to me that the change from when I started windsurfing in 1982, represented about 20 less sailing days over summer (days are hot in Perth generally because the seabreeze is weak).

I decided to increase the temperature threshold to >=32 degrees. The graph indicates that we are now missing out on about two weeks of sailing each summer.

I have also scaled this provided picture of data from several different weather stations all plotted on the one graph and concluded (mine is an empirical conclusion by the way) :

a) remery using a thermometer to determine trend in wind speeds is akin to PM33 using a spirit level to measure the flatness of the earth
b) The average 3pm wind strength for all individual Perth region coastal BOM weather stations and also for Rottnest shows a slight increasing trend from 1982 to 2024.

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remery said...
... Previously I have compared trend lines generated by Excel graphs with calculated regression lines, and they are the same, so you can relax.

Hey remery,

I know I ain't no scientist like you but I like to think I can count to potato. And I do knows that if you compare a potato to an apple you are gonna get very funny tasting apple pie.

Here are your Albany charts, but split into the data from each actual weather station, at the same location. And even then probably should be careful comparing the pre-1960s station and the post 2000s station at Albany town, without further details of what and where.

Trend lines are same as you did before.

Yes, you are correct. I'm happy you now realise that I don't draw trend lines by eye as you suggested.

Now do the same for Perth with the switch over in 1947 (I think).

As you would know, when the west coast trough forms, Perth swelters and Albany is windy and cold.

So to my thinking, more very hot days in Perth over summer, results in more cold days at Albany.

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remery said..
So to my thinking, more very hot days in Perth over summer, results in more cold days at Albany.

okee dokee..... let's investigate..

What if we looked at a plot of maximum temperature in Perth to maximum temperature in Albany. If your theorem were true then when Perth gets above a certain high point there would be a reduction, or atleast a reduction of the increasing rate, in the Albany values.

so.......scatter plot of daily maximum temperature for BOM station 009021 Perth Airport on X axis versus daily maximum temperature for the Albany stations on the Y axis.

The Albany zero values are when Perth (operating 1944 to yesterday) recorded a value but the Albany station didn't (functioning various dates between 1907 and yesterday).

mmm, I am not seeing the trend expected. Neither a reduced rate of increase or a reduce absolute value.



Theorem busted.

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remery said..
As you would know, when the west coast trough forms, Perth swelters and Albany is windy and cold.
So to my thinking, more very hot days in Perth over summer, results in more cold days at Albany.

Arggh... summer only.

okeey, same-same but Perth maximum daily temperature set to zero for everything except Dec, Jan and Feb.

meh, still not seeing it.

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remery said..
As you would know, when the west coast trough forms, Perth swelters and Albany is windy and cold.
So to my thinking, more very hot days in Perth over summer, results in more cold days at Albany.

..so the more days in Perth over 32 = less days in Albany over 30 degrees ?

Nope, not seeing that either....

Cam-on, give me hint remery, I'm dying here man. Someway of looking at it must fit your theorum ....... I gotsta know...

Australian climate extremes in the 21st century according to a regional climate model ensemble: Implications for health and agriculture
N. Herold, M. Ekstr?m, J. Kala, J. Goldie, P. Evans

Heatwave frequency, number and duration will increase significantly in the near and far future, with greater increases in the north than south. All capital cities will experience at minimum a tripling of heatwave days each year by the far future compared to the recent past. For example, the number of heatwave days in Sydney each year will increase from 5.5 in the recent past to 23 in the far future. Implications for mortality are also severe, with projected future climates leading to increases in mortality due to high temperatures in all examined capital cities. The number of days at or above 30??C in the major wheat growing regions will also increase substantially, particularly during spring when wheat is most vulnerable to temperature. Projected decreases in precipitation would decrease the likelihood of meeting historical production levels. Australian national wheat yields will have less than a one quarter chance of exceeding the annual historical average under projected far future precipitation change. Though this does not take into account the increases in heat stress, decreases in frost damage, increases in CO2 fertilization and acclimatisation that would also occur under a future climate.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209471730169X

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Carantoc said..

I'm not sure what you are trying to show. My comment (not an analysis) was about sweltering, heat-trough days in Perth often have cool days in Albany, on that same day. It's just a comment on a windsurfing forum, not a peer-reviewed publication.

It is getting a bit ridiculous when climate change deniers are claiming that it's not getting hotter; and that BoM are rigging climate change analysis by moving stations and homogenising the data. Maybe they should just walk outside. The need for homogenisation is agreed upon internationally and has been very well explained by BoM through FOI responses to time-wasters like Marohasy.

What is backed by data, is that the number of very hot days in Perth over summer is increasing. Hot days in Perth are often because there is a weak or non-existent sea breeze. That is afterall, why they call it "The Fremantle Doctor". Less moderate-to-fresh+ sea breezes means less sailing days in my book. I believe that is what I am seeing over 40+ years of windsurfing in Perth.

Using Multivariate Time Series to Estimate Location and Climate Change Effects on Historical Temperatures Employed in Future Electricity Demand Simulation

Ross S. Bowden and Brenton R. Clarke

Long-term historical daily temperatures are used in electricity forecasting to simulate the probability distribution of future demand but can be affected by changes in recording site and climate. This paper presents a method of adjusting for the effect of these changes on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The adjustment technique accommodates the autocorrelated and bivariate nature of the temperature data which has not previously been employed. The data is from Perth, Western Australia, the main electricity demand centre for the South-West (of Western Australia) Interconnected System. The statistical modelling involves a multivariate extension of the univariate time series "interleaving method", which allows fully efficient simultaneous estimation of the parameters of replicated VARMA processes. Temperatures at the most recent weather recording location in Perth are shown to be significantly lower compared to previous sites. There is also evidence of long-term heating due to climate change especially for minimum temperatures.

www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-change/climate-change-hyden-area-western-australia

Climate change deniers use projection to tell others to "follow the money". Apparently they believe this leads to fat cat scientists. However...Climate denier biggest anti-Voice funder
ANTHONY KLAN

A notorious climate denier with deep ties to US-style dark money outfit the "Institute of Public Affairs" was the biggest funder of the "No" campaign against the Indigenous Voice in the six months before the referendum.

The next biggest funders - who tied with multi-millionaire Simon Fenwick and tipped in $500,000 - were mega-rich Melbourne pair Anne Neate and Richard Harbig, who inherited a family property empire.

Figures released yesterday by the Australian Electoral Commission show "The B Macfie Family Foundation" made eight donations of $100,000 each to "Australians for Unity", the charity arm of "No" campaign group Advance.

Bryant Macfie himself made a further $100,000 donation, taking the total to $900,000.

Macfie, a Perth-based medical doctor and "honorary life member" of the "IPA", made headlines in 2008 when he channelled $350,000 via the IPA to the University of Queensland for "climate research".

In launching the funding Macfie likened "climate activism" to a new religion, declaring "the crucifix has been replaced by the wind turbine".

"The crucifix has been replaced by the wind turbine" - Bryant Macfie

Macfie is one of just three "honorary life members" of the IPA, along with mining billionaire Gina Rinehart.

As previously revealed by The Klaxon, the "No" campaign was deeply tied to the fossil fuels and mining sector.

Advance, the main No campaign group, operates a climate denial and anti-renewables arm called "Not Zero".

The Voice would have given Indigenous Australians a centralised and more prominent say in public affairs, although government would not have been required to follow any of its recommendations.

Internationally, one of the biggest impediments to fossil fuels expansion - and so profits - has been Indigenous land rights.

"One of the biggest impediments to fossil fuels expansion globally has been Indigenous land rights"

Fossil fuels executives, behind closed doors, discuss "black tape" as a "risk" and potential impediment to profit.

The IPA is central to Australia's climate denial movement. It refuses to say who funds it but in 2018 - as a result of court action - it was revealed Rinehart gave it $4.5m between 2016 and 2017, more than one-third of its income over the period.

Fund manager Fenwick, who gave $500,000 in the six-month period in two payments, is one of the IPA's directors.

Advance's "Not Zero" site provides a "fact sheet" - which has been written by Advance and the IPA.

"They call it 'Net Zero'.but there is a cost.and you'll be the now who'll pay," says the site, which is riddled with climate disinformation.

"Get the facts. This is what the climate elites don't want you to know".

theklaxon.com.au/climate-denier-biggest-anti-voice-funder/

www.notzero.com.au/facts

My pacifism ideals are severely strained, when it comes to vested interests stuffing the planet up for future generations.

I envy your free time.

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Pcdefender said..
For the last 2 months it seems Perth has been freezing.

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Next 27 Pages said..
Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...Climate change deniers...

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remery said..
My comment (not an analysis)..... It's just a comment on a windsurfing forum, not a peer-reviewed publication..... I believe that is what I am seeing over 40+ years of windsurfing in Perth.

And somewhere there-in lies a point.

Roy Spencer will be busy explaining away his own graph."Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures - Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere."

... However Roy Spencer, American meteorologist. Principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA's Aqua satellite. Who served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, known for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work, for which he was awarded the American Meteorological Society's Special Award.... Wouldn't know his arse from his elbow. Here is remery's real indicator of climate change based on PCdefender's May 2023 base-line...

Wow. A year or so of data. Time to draw a conclusion of some sort! Did you or your source "pcdefender" exclude Perth's urban heat island effect before posting that?

Spencer "wouldn't know his arse from his elbow".

Goodness me, how ridiculous. It's amusing to see people defend the indefensible Climate Change Cult theories. No wonder the topic stopped here - with that absurdity. I reckon Spencer's work has hit a nerve for Remery. Maybe Remery thinks Spencer is also "an idiot", despite being at the forefront of atmospheric research and pioneering weather satellite technology since the 1970's.

While we wait for Remery to get out of the naughty bin, here's the relevant inconvenient truths the Climate Change Cult doesn't want to acknowledge - and there are many.

?si=KTzIf9brnEGojxqa

Nature.The international journal of science / 13 February 2025

"Actionable implications
Acknowledging the need for Geological Net Zero makes clear what it takes for any continued fossil fuel use to be consistent with Paris Agreement goals. Offsetting emissions with enhanced CO 2 uptake in the oceans and biosphere can provide immediate benefits30 if and only if it is genuinely additional to passive CO 2 uptake. In a durable net-zero world, 100% of the CO2 generated by any continued fossil fuel or fossil carbonate use will almost certainly need to be either captured at source or recaptured from the atmosphere and committed to geological-timescale storage. A commitment from high-ambition participants to report and scale up this 'geologically stored fraction'92is needed urgently: it is currently about 0.1% globally 93, even including CO 2 injection for enhanced hydrocarbon recovery, and accelerates smoothly over time to reach 100% at the date of Geological Net Zero in cost-effective scenarios that meet the goals of the Paris Agreement 92,94. This implies, in addition to reducing emissions, achieving a 10% geo-logically stored fraction by the mid-2030s95 and investing now for a further 10-fold increase in the stored fraction over the following 20 years, including demonstrating secure and verifiable geological CO2 storage capacity to match any new fossil fuel reserves. These are ambitious but achievable goals for the fossil fuel industry and its customers."

library.wmo.int/viewer/69455/download?file=WMO-1368-2024_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1

I just went to look at your 'trigg' &hillaries the other day when in P for job.. with a beanie on so I could stay disguised
I was freezing .blustery...***t

But it's honestly not as cold as I remember it to be late June july so am sure you are correct

Whereas last week I was in geraldton and was swimming at 23degrees one day it was amazing for june

Whereas further up from that where I normally hangout... it's been raining alot.. more than normal and mosquitos and even cases of influenza B which may have come from the horses...and it's not as cold there as I remember it to be ten +yrs ago

Watch the doco The Agenda to find out their global boiling BS is a sham.

Peter, you're back, and you haven't changed.

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Pcdefender said..
Watch the doco The Agenda to find out their global boiling BS is a sham.

So I watched it. My review, half star. Hysterical CT bull.

It's has been absolutely freezing this month. Even my dog won't go outside without his fleecy-lined jacket.

Surely this month will be below Perth's climate average.

(Spoiler, it won't be)

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decrepit said..
Peter, you're back, and you haven't changed.

..oh dear. Will this last long enough this time for me to get the popcorn on?