"Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
Note: Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100km of a reporting land station."

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Pcdefender said..

Do you realy have that much underwear?

Dr. David Dunning has won the Society of Experimental Social Psychology (SESP) Scientific Impact Award. According to the SESP, this award "honors the authors of articles or chapters that provide a theoretical, empirical, and/or methodological contribution that has proven highly influential over the last 25 years." Dave Dunning along with his collaborator, Justin Kruger, were honored for their paper that gave rise to the concept of the Dunning-Kruger effect. More specifically, the citation for the paper is:

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121-1134.

Not only has this paper been cited 9461 times, but it has also accomplished the rare feat of creating a concept that has been thoroughly adopted in the broader society.

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remery said..
....

Not only has this paper been cited 9461 times, but it has also accomplished the rare feat of creating a concept that has been thoroughly adopted in the broader society.

Don't assume that this is a good thing. I am sure I have heard/read someone saying that they were at the top of the Dunning-Kruger chart. Which is worrying when you look at what it really means. I am sure lots of people are interpreting it the wrong way.

It is admirable though that you continue to use logic to try and argue against someone that doesn't care for logic as it pollutes his fantasies.

Although I think he thinks the sun was merely a 'light on the dome', so can't we just turn it down when the world heats up too much?

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remery said..
No it's not.
How much are are are the fossil fuel companies paying you?

Its interesting isn't it, just how far the fossil fuel companies reach extends and interwinds in our everyday lives.

Take one of the largest for example, which also happens to be the world's second largest polluter - Chevron.

Their tactics in Ecuador make just about anything else in this world seem like fluffy kittens.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/08/chevron-amazon-ecuador-steven-donziger-erin-brockovich

They are one of, if not the most, criticized companies in world.
earthworks.org/blog/why-were-holding-chevron-accountable-for-its-greenwashing-campaigns/

Their attitude to social license and justice is contempt. Except contempt isn't a strong enough word.
news.mongabay.com/2021/10/a-new-100-page-report-raises-alarm-over-chevrons-impact-on-planet/

Their greenwashing almost redefines the concept.
www.clientearth.org/projects/the-greenwashing-files/chevron/


Yet here they are, intertwined in everyday West Australian life. Even going so far as teaming up with Murdoch University to sponsor the Harry Butler Institute and pretend they have some sort of commitment to the environment and sustainability.

You'd think that any academic worth their salt would refuse to have anything to do with them. Yet there are plenty willing to pretend none of this exists, so they can sit back in semi-retirement and take the cash. It would appear the fossil fuel cash is more important than academic or social integrity.

I'd invite all Seabreeze forumers to call shame on those academics who should know better, not only for being happy to be paid by the fossil fuel industry, but by one of its worst members and for assisting in the greenwashing of the world's second worst polluter and probably worst corporate citizen.

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Carantoc said..

remery said..
No it's not.
How much are are are the fossil fuel companies paying you?

Its interesting isn't it, just how far the fossil fuel companies reach extends and interwinds in our everyday lives.

Take one of the largest for example, which also happens to be the world's second largest polluter - Chevron....

Totally agree on Chevron. I would be keen to stick my hand up more for a more principled approach to my life. And then with some introspection and thought, I find, along with just about everybody else, that I am a hypocrite at some level. Sometimes intentional, sometimes not. I just need to have a think before I throw stones in the glasshouse these days.

Rather sad that there are still some who think farting cows and burning. fossil fuels are causing the sea to rise.

I should not call them fossil fuels as that is a wild theory in itself.

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Pcdefender said..
Rather sad that there are still some who think farting cows and burning. fossil fuels are causing the sea to rise.

I should not call them fossil fuels as that is a wild theory in itself.

The end of the month approaches. What is your guess at Perth temperatures? Warmer or collier than average?

OK, my estimate is 3.8 degrees warmer October than average. But let's see what BoM decides.

If I'm not mistaken, since you made the claim, "May and June have average max temperatures of 22.3 and 19.5 yet nearly every day it seems the max has been around 17C. No let up in sight for the next week also."

Only one month has been cooler than average.

BoM is forecasting a hot summer for the Perth (and most of Australia). I was hoping that might mean our (Perth) sea breezes might be stronger because of the land heating, but I suspect this optimism is misplaced. That is, it will be hotter because the easterly winds hold out the sea breeze for longer and more often. Can anyone confirm, deny, or shed more meteorological insights?

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fangman said..



BoM is forecasting a hot summer for the Perth (and most of Australia). I was hoping that might mean our (Perth) sea breezes might be stronger because of the land heating, but I suspect this optimism is misplaced. That is, it will be hotter because the easterly winds hold out the sea breeze for longer and more often. Can anyone confirm, deny, or shed more meteorological insights?

The following confirmation bias has developed over many seasons of careful observation. Note: take this system of belief with the largest grain of salt.
My own research tells me to sail when its windy and drink beer when its not. Rarely do I consider atmospheric conditions other than more beer gets consumed when the outside temperature increases and the windier it is the more I enjoy sailing. Note this win-win situation does not require the need to worry about meteorological forecasts.

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Brent in Qld said..
...My own research tells me to sail when its windy and drink beer when its not...

...Aha! That's where I have been going wrong. I have been doing the sailing and beer all on the same day.

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fangman said..

Brent in Qld said..
...My own research tells me to sail when its windy and drink beer when its not...

...Aha! That's where I have been going wrong. I have been doing the sailing and beer all on the same day.

and not necessarily in that order

"Beer is the reason I get up in the afternoon."

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fangman said..

Brent in Qld said..
...My own research tells me to sail when its windy and drink beer when its not...

...Aha! That's where I have been going wrong. I have been doing the sailing and beer all on the same day.

My experience with that scenario was it lead to down time where the mind wilts under the weight of beer-less, wind-less weeks, even months. That can get damn ugly to the point where you'll take comments in water sports forums seriously even going as far as discussing toe in or boom grip etc...

The solution I've arrived at is to move next to a pub that isn't too far from a reasonable windsurfing spot. Win-win!

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fangman said..



BoM is forecasting a hot summer for the Perth (and most of Australia). I was hoping that might mean our (Perth) sea breezes might be stronger because of the land heating, but I suspect this optimism is misplaced. That is, it will be hotter because the easterly winds hold out the sea breeze for longer and more often. Can anyone confirm, deny, or shed more meteorological insights?

Given that the October average maximum was the same as early December, it's not looking promising.

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Sublime said..

Not only completely dishonest, but so ignorant that anyone who believes it must be as gullible as a four year old. The truth (not that conspiracy liars know what truth is) is that LOTS of people study what causes bushfires, and they are NOT being started by some minions of a nameless conspiracy.

Lawyers from both sides often get investigators in to work out where bushfires start and create major insurance claims. The insurers and their investigators and consultant scientists sometimes have many millions on the line. You'd have to be a complete tool to think that they wouldn't have uncovered evidence of a conspiracy.

The police also investigate how bushfires start. So does the fire brigade and the BOM and the Fire Control Centres know that they are often started by lightning strikes, for example, because they can detect lightning and try to get into the fires it causes ASAP.

But it's at ground level - or actually fire ground level - where we know that anyone who believes in this meme is a complete fool or completely dishonest. Volunteer firefighters - the ones who actually get out with a hose in front of the flames and lose their own time and money putting themselves at risk to help others - get DEEPLY pissed off at the people who start fires. As soon as the situation gets under control one of the first questions that gets asked amongst the smoke and water is "what caused this".

For example, a few weeks ago there was a fire two properties down from mine. Our brigade was just on standby in case the fire jumped the river, but afterwards I went around to see if the neighbour wanted to put any stock on my place. Within a couple of minutes I'd found out exactly where and how the fire had started and been shown the exact spot where a car in an amateur rally had come off the road and sparked off the fire in deep dry grass, because to people on the land and firefighters this information is vital and very interesting.

A couple of weeks ago I was driving to go sailing in a howling north westerly and ran into smoke coming across the highway and a grass fire getting into the trees to windward of the highway. A guy from another brigade also hit the brakes and we whacked out spot fires getting across the road with boots and branches until the town brigade and an RFS truck got there and I helped them bowl the hoses out. The RFS captain asked us how the fire started and when we told him that a fencing contractor had been sparked it by using a grinder (against the law because there was a total fire ban) he got narked and went to give the guy a piece of his mind and a fine. As I was walking back to my car I heard the captain of the town unit get the same news and announce to his guys that he was also going over to make sure the contractor got all the penalties he could cop, because the fire damn near got away big time. Within a couple of days people from the sailing club who work in the regional fire control unit were mentioning the muppet with a grinder.

That is the sort of thing that makes this meme such a liar's or fool's fantasy. There's 144,000 average Aussies who are bushfire fighters (and lots of farmers with their own firefighting gear) who are out there on the fire ground and trying to work out who caused fires. No conspiracy can be out there lighting fires en masse without them finding out.

The scum who create memes like these are claiming that hundreds of thousands of their normal fellow men and women are either morons who have failed to see this BS conspiracy, or they are part of it for reasons the cowardly lying conspiracy theorists won't reveal.

If the conspiracy liars are going to throw such vile insults at volunteers who risk their lives then the volunteers should let anyone who is a conspiracy liar protect their own property themselves. Since conspiracy theorists are almost by definition cowards, I bet they'll run screaming.

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Pcdefender said..
For the last 2 months it seems Perth has been freezing.

May and June have average max temperatures of 22.3 and 19.5 yet nearly every day it seems the max has been around 17C.

No let up in sight for the next week also.

Global Warming it seems also causes significant cooling.

We should all do our part to reduce our carbon emissions.

15 minute cities with carbon credits points for each individual. Seems like a good idea on the face of it.

Any takers?

Any concerns?

"Australia's climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ? 0.24 ?C since national records began in 1910." - Bom.

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remery said..

Pcdefender said..
For the last 2 months it seems Perth has been freezing.

May and June have average max temperatures of 22.3 and 19.5 yet nearly every day it seems the max has been around 17C.

No let up in sight for the next week also.

Global Warming it seems also causes significant cooling.

We should all do our part to reduce our carbon emissions.

15 minute cities with carbon credits points for each individual. Seems like a good idea on the face of it.

Any takers?

Any concerns?

"Australia's climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ? 0.24 ?C since national records began in 1910." - Bom.

What was March and April 23 ? Might as well average over a full 12 months.

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Ian K said..
What was March and April 23 ? Might as well average over a full 12 months.

mmmmm.... include an incomplete Feb, but completely ignore a complete March and April.

Is that because the figures look more like you want them to or because somebody is just lazy ?

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Carantoc said..

Ian K said..
What was March and April 23 ? Might as well average over a full 12 months.

mmmmm.... include an incomplete Feb, but completely ignore a complete March and April.

Is that because the figures look more like you want them to or because somebody is just lazy ?

Feb 24 is incomplete because today is only the 20th day of the month. Pcdefender brought this topic up in May 2023. You learned about numbers right?

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Ian K said..

What was March and April 23 ? Might as well average over a full 12 months.

As you wish...

Not easy to track atmospheric temperature. It's not like the baby's bath, you can't just give it a good stir until it's evenly mixed and poke a thermometer in. But Co2 is closer to being well mixed. When did we become aware CO2 might be the problem? Making good progress aren't we?

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Chris 249 said..

Sublime said..

Not only completely dishonest, but so ignorant that anyone who believes it must be as gullible as a four year old. The truth (not that conspiracy liars know what truth is) is that LOTS of people study what causes bushfires, and they are NOT being started by some minions of a nameless conspiracy.

Lawyers from both sides often get investigators in to work out where bushfires start and create major insurance claims. The insurers and their investigators and consultant scientists sometimes have many millions on the line. You'd have to be a complete tool to think that they wouldn't have uncovered evidence of a conspiracy.

The police also investigate how bushfires start. So does the fire brigade and the BOM and the Fire Control Centres know that they are often started by lightning strikes, for example, because they can detect lightning and try to get into the fires it causes ASAP.

But it's at ground level - or actually fire ground level - where we know that anyone who believes in this meme is a complete fool or completely dishonest. Volunteer firefighters - the ones who actually get out with a hose in front of the flames and lose their own time and money putting themselves at risk to help others - get DEEPLY pissed off at the people who start fires. As soon as the situation gets under control one of the first questions that gets asked amongst the smoke and water is "what caused this".

For example, a few weeks ago there was a fire two properties down from mine. Our brigade was just on standby in case the fire jumped the river, but afterwards I went around to see if the neighbour wanted to put any stock on my place. Within a couple of minutes I'd found out exactly where and how the fire had started and been shown the exact spot where a car in an amateur rally had come off the road and sparked off the fire in deep dry grass, because to people on the land and firefighters this information is vital and very interesting.

A couple of weeks ago I was driving to go sailing in a howling north westerly and ran into smoke coming across the highway and a grass fire getting into the trees to windward of the highway. A guy from another brigade also hit the brakes and we whacked out spot fires getting across the road with boots and branches until the town brigade and an RFS truck got there and I helped them bowl the hoses out. The RFS captain asked us how the fire started and when we told him that a fencing contractor had been sparked it by using a grinder (against the law because there was a total fire ban) he got narked and went to give the guy a piece of his mind and a fine. As I was walking back to my car I heard the captain of the town unit get the same news and announce to his guys that he was also going over to make sure the contractor got all the penalties he could cop, because the fire damn near got away big time. Within a couple of days people from the sailing club who work in the regional fire control unit were mentioning the muppet with a grinder.

That is the sort of thing that makes this meme such a liar's or fool's fantasy. There's 144,000 average Aussies who are bushfire fighters (and lots of farmers with their own firefighting gear) who are out there on the fire ground and trying to work out who caused fires. No conspiracy can be out there lighting fires en masse without them finding out.

The scum who create memes like these are claiming that hundreds of thousands of their normal fellow men and women are either morons who have failed to see this BS conspiracy, or they are part of it for reasons the cowardly lying conspiracy theorists won't reveal.

If the conspiracy liars are going to throw such vile insults at volunteers who risk their lives then the volunteers should let anyone who is a conspiracy liar protect their own property themselves. Since conspiracy theorists are almost by definition cowards, I bet they'll run screaming.

settle down princess
so you got a couple of local examples
but that's a hell of a lot more going on behind the scenes
don't forget, it was these conspiracy sum you speak of that were warning you about the safe and effectives you were forced not forced to take

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remery said..
Feb 24 is incomplete because today is only the 20th day of the month. Pcdefender brought this topic up in May 2023. You learned about numbers right?

Yeah, once I learnt to count to at least potato. I also learndid about statistics. And the months of year.

It seems to me PM33 started this thread towards the end of June 2023 and spoke about "the last 2 months".

.....And so if you did a fact check on what PM33 actually said, using the numbers you presented, then the monthly average was -1.0 degree, i.e cooler than average. And fact is confirmed. I guess PM33 has to get something right sometime, You know that infinite monkeys at typewriters analogy.

Now, I don't think PM33's general intent of opinion is correct, and somewhere along the line I recall somebody also argued about what climate meant, and over what time period climate could be measured. Two cool months don't make a trend or conclude anything about climate. But if you argue this, then how do you also argue that two hot weeks in February do indicate a trend ?

Humans do their thing
planet more and more hot now
there will be some death

planet has been here before, remember Permian extinction, life will go on. In some form. Wind patterns may vary.

PM33 claimed that May and June 2023 in Perth were unusually cold. May was actually a tiny bit warmer than average; and that, "Global Warming it seems also causes significant cooling." He asked if there were any takers or concerns.

My point is that, yes I have concerns so I showed that every month since he made that claim has been warmer than average.

The 10 day forecast for February looks to be about 31 so I have little doubt that Feb 24 will also be warmer than average. Resulting in 1 month in 10 (since PM33's claim) being cooler than average.

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CH3MTR4IL5 said..
Humans do their thing
.
.
.
Wind patterns may vary.

This windy season has sucked. Should I blame El Ni?o, La Ni?a, CO2 or the gal down the street with a 5.7 L Hemi that she uses to take her kid to preschool every day? Murica'!