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pete53 said..
Sounds dull I know but the current set up is so often a lottery.
It looked tough out there thats for sure.
The WQS though is the biggest lottery I have ever seen - one good result can set you up really nicely - Just one. So one nice piece of luck in a heat can make a whole world of difference. Just ask Jesse Mendes. Who? Exactly. But I can tell you right now he is counting his blessings like no one else. But on the CT its a whole different story.
It might be a lottery in some situations but on the whole its a lottery for everyone in a strange kinda way - you get to drop your two poorest events over the year (plus you get to loose at least one heat a comp (sometimes two) and it costs you nothing except an extra heat in sometimes perfect waves in unreal locations) - so across the law of averages its nicely balanced almost. Its like the law of large numbers - which argues that if a random experiment is repeated a large number of times, the variance around the mean of the random variable of interest, or the coefficient of variation, decreases as the number of trials increases. So in a surfing term - the more heats we have then the number of absurd results impacting a surfers standing will converge proportionally to the number of heats they have participated in. Therefore the more heats you have the closer it will resemble your true level. Take Slater for example. He has won 11 titles. If a couple of other heats had gone his way he might have had 14 or if not 9. Does 11 sound about right? Probably if you ask me. Most times since I have been following it closely the best / most consistent surfer has finished at the top of the tree after the year is done. Yeah there was a short year there when Mr Hobgood cleaned up. And others might think he did not deserve it. JJF - might be the best surfer out there at the moment but he has never done enough in a 12 month period to deserve to be champ. Neither has Jordy or Dane before that or Cheyne before them all. But Adriano has. MR did it 4 times. Its subjective - thats for sure. But the competitors have time to adjust and make changes accordingly most of the time. Sometimes they get the short end of the stick - other times they benefit. On the whole though over a long period of time it balances out I reckon. A part of me really felt for Ricardo Christie last year - he surfed well all year and in several events you could argue that he would have won any other heat in that round but he didn't. Why? Because the other person was better in that heat. He was also pretty lucky to even make the CT when you think about it. He got in by the skin of his teeth and it proved to be a step too far when you added it all up. A shame for him - but its a pretty simple game of math. He was the last qualifier (bottom of the barrel) and had to then play the guys at the top to earn his stripes. So although he might have beaten a few others along the way if he had been a different seed - the reality was he wasn't and didn't deserve to be. He had to earn his stripes first.
Yeah there were a few big blow ups after that last event - but I reckon if you look at the reasons behind those big results at the end of the year or over a two or three year period it really doesn't have that much impact. Look at the blokes who consistently do well year in and year out. Are you saying they have never had any luck go against them or for them? Look at someone like Bede - consistently up there - he never sets the world on fire when he surfs compared to a few others - but he never lets you down either. He is super consistent. So over time he is rewarded with consistently high ratings - if not by his sponsorship arrangements. People love to remember the times they got done by a bad result but are quick to forget when it benefits them.
Anyway its just sport and it really doesn't matter too much at the end of the day. Much more important things to worry about. Where shall we start - Trump in power? SA, QLD and Tassie have all had power issues in recent months. Nuclear Power - ummmmm, Political power - ahhh lets not touch that one. Solar power - nice idea but super expensive. And thats just a few power issues that have been swarming round this week. Lots of bigger problems out there to keep you up at night
Like how on earth does he escape from this so easily
www.theinertia.com/surf/laurie-towners-magical-escape-from-the-impact-zone/ I would like to see Matty W win just to stick it to the establishment - but the judging is biased so he has no hope