Well I guess, I'm an outlier, started speed sailing when the GPSTC was formed, in 07, I was 62 then and just over 70kg. I hit 30kts almost straight away, then was stuck on 36kts for several years, had a high 36 in late 2012 at Exmouth. Then managed a 39 at Lake George early 2013 when I was 68. After that I lost some weight, down to mid 60s.
Then I was stuck on 38kts, until this February at Albany I finally had a 40.5 max and 40.2 2second at 68kg and 77 years old.
Yes I'm sure my gear has improved. I was using some strange stuff at the start.
Albany was very special conditions, and I just happened to have the optimum combo for the day.
I'm not sure what can be read into this, except it's very hard to draw any conclusions from a bunch of numbers.
There are too many variables.

I believe the question itself is misleading as it is based on the "TOP" performers of each year.
At this level increases are minimal, in other sports world records can hang around for decades before someone knocks it over.

It is better to take a look at individual sailors then analyze the data, then you have a more accurate vision. My data below
Unfortunately we play in a weather based sports, there needs to be a lot of holes in the Swiss cheese metaphor needed to line up for the possibility of a PB.

Wind (we all get bad years where your small 6m sail is still to small)
Flat water (we get lots of wind, but its a motocross track which only Slowy can sail))
Availability (you can hear the wails and teeth grinding of those of us who can't escape work when it's happening).

All these things need to align so we have a chance of PB'ing.

Myself, I've been GPS speeding from around 2004 and get bored chasing flat water speed and will go a whole season just playing in the lumpy goodness with the occasional blat when enthused.

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LeeD said..
You guessed wrong, then.

He guessed wrong!!!!!????

BUT, no data to back it up!!!!!???

"When the data drops, the BS stops!!"

POST YOUR DATA or it's TOTAL BS!

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LeeD said..
But now at 210 lbs, could be very fast. A Cal Cup racer 1st
Greg is a current Cal Cup foiler, New blue Tillo.
And of course I know the rest, about 3 mph always separated us....
GPS was new then, but worse, sailing sites gave inconsistent wind, unlike steady Lake George.
Last Ponds day I competed in, super gusty 22-37 knot switch wind, my buddy Fat Dave clocked 40-44 repeatedly, the NP trio around 37, me 36 max, a bunch of guys over 37, and only the NP team was invited to stay for "official" timing the next day.
I have sailed with Roddy, Fred and Laird dozens of days on Maui. No biggie.

BS!!! Show us the data. Show us how you measured these fantasy speeds that are in MPH, (Miles per hour), not Knots, so 44 is barely over 38 knots, a speed that scores of intermediate sailors post here on GPSTC every month from real world venues! Why do you bother LeeD? Just digging a bigger embarrasment hole for yourself.

If it is not on the internet, it means it cannot exist, never happened, and no way in heck could have have occurred.
I already stated I live on 600 a month. Probably a 300 buck Garmin is not on my bucket list. Ya dink?
Thatxs why I use lots of old gear.
I have some 2020 stuff in the van, but the old crap works just fine, I'm hardly ever passed by anyone in the water.
And guaranteed the guy passing me is a sponsored sailor currently competing at a high level, like Xavier.

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elmo said..
I believe the question itself is misleading as it is based on the "TOP" performers of each year.

First chart is the average best performance each year of all the sailors. In 2017 for example the average of 472 sailors.
Second chart is the average best performance each year of the of the top 25% sailors. In 2017 for example the highest ranked 118 sailors.

I suppose the upper speed limit is constrained so diminishing rate of return is inevitable.

Also, median speed instead of mean speed might be more informative.

I started windsurfing in the early 80's but am relatively new to this speed sailing caper. So I thought I would plot my monthly average for 5x10, thinking that it would average out a lot of the peaks and dips, but it was all over the place with a pretty flat trendline. So I switched to monthly 2 sec average and then monthly max 2 sec, they all looked like little improvement. So I went for fastest 2 sec for each year. (northern hemisphere folk should remember that our summer sailing season spans years)

I think my first few years went downhill because I was using inappropriate, old secondhand equipment. I then replaced everything with new slalom gear and drove further to specialised speed sailing locations. I reckon my most recent improvement of 4 knots over a few months is due to switching to a dedicated speed board and fin. I can't see my top speed getting any better so 5x10 and Alpha could be a good focus next season.

I exported all my data with gpsteamchallenge.com.au/sailor_session/export_session_csv?sailor_id=xxxx and used Excel's subtotal function.

The other issue might be as we improve our Pb,s it gets harder to get that perfect wind/water and daylight window. Any improvement's in speed for me are a faster run in less wind. No Pb in numbers but a faster run anyway. The body is also getting a bit older/ slower too

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LeeD said..
And while Lake George is a great, treasured venue, it's not real world conditions, is it?

I think that is a fairly weak argument, because a lot of sports have artificial environments as well (eg Golf, Tennis, MotoGP). GPSTC is what it is. it's a sport that assumes an environment to conduct that sport.

You will always be faster on gear that is comfortable for you. Generally a sailor that is comfortable on new gear will be faster than a sailor that is comfortable on old gear. Everyone is fast now

ANY discussion about speed must include a gps measurement (or a radar measurement). Doesn't matter whether the gps device is official or appoved or whatever. Use a gps device. Otherwise anybody's speed claims are bogus.

In God we trust. All others bring data.

I do know that I am going slower since going hard over into foiling. I know this from 15 years of gps data in my archives.

Lots of bs here.
A fast sailor is fast, regardless of having, or not having, GPS readings.
Very few fast sailors around SF Bay, maybe a tiny pond in your ratings. But lots of newer slalom boards and slalom sails. Yes, most switched to course foil, and there are few slalom races.
At 73, on old gear, legs not able to run in 14 years

Decrepit.... kudos and congrats!
I want to be like you when I get old!

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PhilUK said..

duzzi said..

PhilUK said..

LeeD said..
20 year old gear goes as fast as 2021 gear.

Jim Crossley is the fastest currently in the UK and sometimes takes out 20 year old kit for fun. He says his speeds are 10% slower on old kit. Thats a fact.
Places like Luderitz might have faster speeds from a few years ago as conditions were better then.
In the UK I think there are fewer serious speed sailors than 15-20 years ago, so a UK average trend could well be stagnant or even downward.

This thread is a very good example of what is wrong with the Web.

With all due regards and trying to be nice: somebody posts a graph that is based on messy aggregate data that any statistician would toss in a garbage can. The data is meaningless when it comes to answer the question: "Is 15-20 years old equipment faster or slower than current equipment".

But still the graph is there! Published! and it shows, contrary to all evidence, that older equipment is as fast. (Or, mysteriously, faster if you are in the upper 25%!). As a result we are at page two of a meaningless discussion trying to refute (or support) a conclusion that is based on what statisticians would call "garbage data collection". [Yes, before you ask, I am (was) a professional statistician.]

Its an interesting discussion though.
Thread title "Are we going faster?"
The answer appears to be not really, even if you take the top 25% as a measure. Its not down to kit though.
Sailquik's first post listed possible variables, I cant thing of any others.

Yes it is. I think the main problem with speed is that any venue has sort of an upper speed limit. You can push it up ... but the room for improvement gets thinner and thinner (just look at word speed records.)

BTW: Lot's of references to the San Francisco Bay in this thread ... well, the Bay does not have a single real speed spot. Chop is everywhere, and as a result I never seen 5x10 more than 31-33 knots. From anybody, including VERY good sailors who spent a season try to brake 35 and never made it. (And there is no 500 meter strip to talk of in the area.) Go back 10 years and it was the same 31-33 knots. Go back 14 and I clocked (by magic) a few 2 seconds 36. That with a HSM GPS 4 cams that was built, and sailed, like a tank. The limiting factor is obviously not the equipment.

Select to expand quote

duzzi said..

PhilUK said..

duzzi said..

PhilUK said..

LeeD said..
20 year old gear goes as fast as 2021 gear.

Jim Crossley is the fastest currently in the UK and sometimes takes out 20 year old kit for fun. He says his speeds are 10% slower on old kit. Thats a fact.
Places like Luderitz might have faster speeds from a few years ago as conditions were better then.
In the UK I think there are fewer serious speed sailors than 15-20 years ago, so a UK average trend could well be stagnant or even downward.

This thread is a very good example of what is wrong with the Web.

With all due regards and trying to be nice: somebody posts a graph that is based on messy aggregate data that any statistician would toss in a garbage can. The data is meaningless when it comes to answer the question: "Is 15-20 years old equipment faster or slower than current equipment".

But still the graph is there! Published! and it shows, contrary to all evidence, that older equipment is as fast. (Or, mysteriously, faster if you are in the upper 25%!). As a result we are at page two of a meaningless discussion trying to refute (or support) a conclusion that is based on what statisticians would call "garbage data collection". [Yes, before you ask, I am (was) a professional statistician.]

Its an interesting discussion though.
Thread title "Are we going faster?"
The answer appears to be not really, even if you take the top 25% as a measure. Its not down to kit though.
Sailquik's first post listed possible variables, I cant thing of any others.

Yes it is. I think the main problem with speed is that any venue has sort of an upper speed limit. You can push it up ... but the room for improvement gets thinner and thinner (just look at word speed records.)

BTW: Lot's of references to the San Francisco Bay in this thread ... well, the Bay does not have a single real speed spot. Chop is everywhere, and as a result I never seen 5x10 more than 31-33 knots. From anybody, including VERY good sailors who spent a season try to brake 35 and never made it. (And there is no 500 meter strip to talk of in the area.) Go back 10 years and it was the same 31-33 knots. Go back 14 and I clocked (by magic) a few 2 seconds 36. That with a HSM GPS 4 cams that was built, and sailed, like a tank. The limiting factor is obviously not the equipment.

I sailed at Larkspur near San Quentin Prison the spot had some nice flattish areas for speed sailing, best place with potential was Bodega Bay.

Wasted $ on 2 speed events at Bodega events, one sailing with 22 mph max gusts, the other 4-11.
Wind does not cooperate with events. Both predicted gale force NW in Spring.
R&G, low tide, upwind and inside coming down from the boat channel.
Larkspur running down from school low tides S wind.
Crissy on flood. Mike P won last one, 36 mph.
Palo Alto mid/low tide, running inside the tules.

That vid is low tide Harts Beach, good wind, but angle and space does not allow broad reach speed.
Better on ocean side, skimming near shore and reaching off near launch.
Avery is king there.

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choco said..

duzzi said..

PhilUK said..

duzzi said..

PhilUK said..

LeeD said..
20 year old gear goes as fast as 2021 gear.

Jim Crossley is the fastest currently in the UK and sometimes takes out 20 year old kit for fun. He says his speeds are 10% slower on old kit. Thats a fact.
Places like Luderitz might have faster speeds from a few years ago as conditions were better then.
In the UK I think there are fewer serious speed sailors than 15-20 years ago, so a UK average trend could well be stagnant or even downward.

This thread is a very good example of what is wrong with the Web.

With all due regards and trying to be nice: somebody posts a graph that is based on messy aggregate data that any statistician would toss in a garbage can. The data is meaningless when it comes to answer the question: "Is 15-20 years old equipment faster or slower than current equipment".

But still the graph is there! Published! and it shows, contrary to all evidence, that older equipment is as fast. (Or, mysteriously, faster if you are in the upper 25%!). As a result we are at page two of a meaningless discussion trying to refute (or support) a conclusion that is based on what statisticians would call "garbage data collection". [Yes, before you ask, I am (was) a professional statistician.]

Its an interesting discussion though.
Thread title "Are we going faster?"
The answer appears to be not really, even if you take the top 25% as a measure. Its not down to kit though.
Sailquik's first post listed possible variables, I cant thing of any others.

Yes it is. I think the main problem with speed is that any venue has sort of an upper speed limit. You can push it up ... but the room for improvement gets thinner and thinner (just look at word speed records.)

BTW: Lot's of references to the San Francisco Bay in this thread ... well, the Bay does not have a single real speed spot. Chop is everywhere, and as a result I never seen 5x10 more than 31-33 knots. From anybody, including VERY good sailors who spent a season try to brake 35 and never made it. (And there is no 500 meter strip to talk of in the area.) Go back 10 years and it was the same 31-33 knots. Go back 14 and I clocked (by magic) a few 2 seconds 36. That with a HSM GPS 4 cams that was built, and sailed, like a tank. The limiting factor is obviously not the equipment.

I sailed at Larkspur near San Quentin Prison the spot had some nice flattish areas for speed sailing, best place with potential was Bodega Bay.

You need at least 20-25 knots to reach, say, sup-30/sub-35 knots ... and a very flat spot. Few places in the Bay Area (Candlestick/Larkspur/Tiger) offer that, if you go at the right time. They all have 200-400 meters reaches which preclude any 500 meters attempt.

Nobody I am aware of ever posted a 5x10" of 35 knots in the Bay, but to go faster than that you would need 25-30 knots of wind, which we very rarely see, and flat. No spot in the Bay, including Bodega and Sacramento Delta, offers that.

Dave, don't give up yet.
Steve S, the North sponsored sailor GPS ed 37 at Berkeley, lower tide, strong SW wind, water shadowed by Ashby shoals.
As did the 1st guy on 2010 readouts locally.
Mike P won the last speed event at Crissy, flood tide maybe 11 years ago, 36 mph. Following season I bought that board, 300 bucks, fat bottom blue label sLab.

If you want speed, you gotta create your own locals loop, be ready to drive 2 hours, and of course know local conditions.
Spring is most predictable.

Just head up to Oregon, its way faster up here on the Columbia River. Speed capital of the USA!

Yes, more talented big guys, better gear, more strong wind, more guys sailing for 35+ years who still want the adrenalin from speed.

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LeeD said..
If you want speed, you gotta create your own locals loop, be ready to drive 2 hours, and of course know local conditions.
Spring is most predictable.

I'm sure a good statistician could tease out a correlation between the rate of setting a new pb and the price of petrol (that's gas for our San Francisco Bay colleagues)

What price, glory?
Regular is $5.65 a gallon at the cheapest station, premium 75c more.

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LeeD said..
What price, glory?
Regular is $5.65 a gallon at the cheapest station, premium 75c more.

And then there's range anxiety. Plenty here not looking forward to electrification I'd guess?

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LeeD said..
Mike P won the last speed event at Crissy, flood tide maybe 11 years ago, 36 mph. Following season I bought that board, 300 bucks, fat bottom blue label sLab.

But you told us "20 year old gear goes as fast as 2021 gear."

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LeeD said..
Dave, don't give up yet.
Steve S, the North sponsored sailor GPS ed 37 at Berkeley, lower tide, strong SW wind, water shadowed by Ashby shoals.
As did the 1st guy on 2010 readouts locally.
Mike P won the last speed event at Crissy, flood tide maybe 11 years ago, 36 mph. Following season I bought that board, 300 bucks, fat bottom blue label sLab.

Lee ... units!!!! 36-37 mph is rather pathetic (by Australian standards) 31-32 knots. But it confirms exactly the point: in the Bay Area top speeds by top sailors are VERY low, and it is simply because conditions are great for B&J but simply suck for speed.

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remery said..

LeeD said..
Mike P won the last speed event at Crissy, flood tide maybe 11 years ago, 36 mph. Following season I bought that board, 300 bucks, fat bottom blue label sLab.

But you told us "20 year old gear goes as fast as 2021 gear."

Who really takes the time to properly dial in a 20 yo board when doing a back to back comparison with the one you sail every day?