theconversation.com/we-found-a-secret-history-of-megadroughts-written-in-tree-rings-the-wheatbelts-future-may-be-drier-than-we-thought-160526

This is about the best study Ive seen on the subject.
If you can find the paper there's a cool chart in it (no hockey sticks).
Don't think its ever possible to predict the future though.

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Carantoc said..

Carantoc said..
If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent...

says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist

Been a bit busy to flog a dead horse, so haven't been noting the daily situation across the country for the last few months.

But suffice to say that record flooding on the Murray-Darling from Menindee to coast and beyond to the largest flows ever recorded on the Fitzroy River in the north and widespread flooding across the Kimberley seems to provide some evidence the models are wrong (at least) stand corrected.

Is a peer reviewed paper required to prove that Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist was wrong ?

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/cbs-60-minutes-promotes-scientist?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Flannery is a lightweight in failed predictions but it does'nt stop them , the more they make the more attention they get.

www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-04/bom-forecasts-40-per-cent-chance-el-nino-august-drought-fears/101826780

You do understand there is a difference between 'climate' and 'weather'?

Yeah, I understand the difference between climate and weather.

Timescale and averaging. That's the difference.

Climate is the weather averaged out over periods of time and areas or regions.



I guess we could argue forever what the minimum timescale and area is for weather to become climate. 10 years, 30 years, 100 years, 1 million years ?

But I ain't got time to argue about that forever, too many threads about bitcoin to keep me busy.


Anyways you'se say BOM predicting 40% chance of upcoming el-nino making dryer than average weather eh ?

So that's 60% chance of not upcoming el-nino then.


40% dryer than average / 60% not dryer than average. Wows. Pretty good models they got.

I could have forecast 50% dryer than average / 50% not dryer than average at some time in the future using nothing but my magic wand. I wouldn't be that far off what the BOM supercomputer says. And Macro recons AI is smarter than the ol' Carantoc. Seems not so much eh ?

Fears drought could follow floods as BOM forecasts chance of El Ni?o arriving off back of La Ni?a

www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-04/bom-forecasts-40-per-cent-chance-el-nino-august-drought-fears/101826780


Just read your climate weather climate weather news article MSN.

Wowsers,

Hot Australian headline news. Drought may follow flood ?

Whoa. this is news.

Also, can anyone confirm if the recently deceased pope was catholic and if bears do **** in the wood because the floods has washed all the **** away and I can't see any.

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Carantoc said..
Fears drought could follow floods as BOM forecasts chance of El Ni?o arriving off back of La Ni?a

www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-04/bom-forecasts-40-per-cent-chance-el-nino-august-drought-fears/101826780


Just read your climate weather climate weather news article MSN.

Wowsers,

Hot Australian headline news. Drought may follow flood ?

Whoa. this is news.

Also, can anyone confirm if the recently deceased pope was catholic and if bears do **** in the wood because the floods has washed all the **** away and I can't see any.

Two posts in a row, lol!

I'm glad my post got you all triggered. Take it easy on those angry pills.

I wonder if blocking sunshine would have anything to do with all this strange weather we are having.


When a rookie co-pilot flipped the chemtrail switch before taking off - GoyimTV

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myscreenname said..
I'm glad my post got you all triggered. Take it easy on those angry pills.

Angry ?

Sincere apologies if my posts come across as angry.

I'd offer the opinion Carantoc is one of the least angry people in the world. Although that hasn't been peer reviewed so can't be trusted.


No, no. The theme I am trying to capture is extreme sarcasm and over-inflated self-righteousness.

And this stems from sanctimony, not anger.


Peace and love to all, and may your bitcoins forever expand in heaven.

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Carantoc said..
Angry ?

Sincere apologies if my posts come across as angry.

I'd offer the opinion Carantoc is one of the least angry people in the world. Although that hasn't been peer reviewed so can't be trusted.


No, no. The theme I am trying to capture is extreme sarcasm and over-inflated self-righteousness.

And this stems from sanctimony, not anger.


Peace and love to all, and may your bitcoins forever expand in heaven.

Who needs red thumbs?

Anyways back on the subject. Which was I recall :

If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia



Mmm, how east does it need to be the east ?

www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-09/evacuations-amid-unprecedented-gulf-flooding/102074770

The Gregory River at Riversleigh, near Lawn Hill, reached 18 metres high, surpassing the 1971 flood record of 10.8m.

18m up from 10.8m record seems like a fair old whack, although maybe this isn't a permanent drought, it is just weather and not in the east..

"Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. A region's weather patterns, usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate."

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Carantoc said..
Anyways back on the subject. Which was I recall :

If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia



Mmm, how east does it need to be the east ?

www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-09/evacuations-amid-unprecedented-gulf-flooding/102074770

The Gregory River at Riversleigh, near Lawn Hill, reached 18 metres high, surpassing the 1971 flood record of 10.8m.

18m up from 10.8m record seems like a fair old whack, although maybe this isn't a permanent drought, it is just weather and not in the east..

Don't worry WA has new super computer to predict the apocalypse,
will sleep well tonight.

Facts... Truth.

Planes flying at high altitude produce oxidane which falls to earth and impacts organisms.

Few planes fly at high altitude over the south west of Western Australia, so contrails are rarely seen.

The south west of Western Australia is low on oxidane.

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remery said..
Facts... Truth.

Planes flying at high altitude produce oxidane which falls to earth and impacts orgasims

Few planes fly at high altitude over the south west of Western Australia, so contrails are rarely seen.

The south west of Western Australia is low on oxidane.

Select to expand quote

remery said..
Facts... Truth.

Planes flying at high altitude produce oxidane which falls to earth and impacts organisms.

Few planes fly at high altitude over the south west of Western Australia, so contrails are rarely seen.

The south west of Western Australia is low on oxidane.

oxidane (uncountable) (inorganic chemistry) An IUPAC-compliant name for water, H2O.

Repent, the end is nigh

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TonyAbbott said..
Repent, the end is nigh

No problem, we've got 3 months up our sleeves.

Last chance to make a killing on crypto?

Bitcoin and Greta.

When you think of those things you can't help also wondering about handbrakes on canoes, chocolate fireguards and tits on bulls.

And Shooting the breeze

climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/#:~:text=As%20the%20atmosphere%20warms%20and,a%20very%20strong%20positive%20feedback.

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remery said..
climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/#:~:text=As%20the%20atmosphere%20warms%20and,a%20very%20strong%20positive%20feedback.

So, would it be feasible and effective to just cover a large expanse of the earth with reflective polyester film?

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TonyAbbott said..
Repent, the end is nigh

The end could still be a while away, just unavoidable if we don't stop using fossil fuels by June. a comma would have helped with some clarity but probably too late now

did your hear the one about the comma and the apostrophe that went to couples counselling, the apostrophe was possessive but the comma wouldn't end things

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Harrow said..

remery said..
climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/#:~:text=As%20the%20atmosphere%20warms%20and,a%20very%20strong%20positive%20feedback.

So, would it be feasible and effective to just cover a large expanse of the earth with reflective polyester film?

If you have the time to waste on one of your office commutes, you might read Termination Shock, Neal Stephenson. Near future, say 2030s, oil billionaire decides to solve global warming by shooting sulphur into the stratosphere. Fights follow. About 700 pages

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Mr Milk said..
If you have the time to waste on one of your office commutes, you might read Termination Shock, Neal Stephenson. Near future, say 2030s, oil billionaire decides to solve global warming by shooting sulphur into the stratosphere. Fights follow. About 700 pages.

My initial reaction is, "Solve global warming with acid rain?"

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Harrow said..

Mr Milk said..
If you have the time to waste on one of your office commutes, you might read Termination Shock, Neal Stephenson. Near future, say 2030s, oil billionaire decides to solve global warming by shooting sulphur into the stratosphere. Fights follow. About 700 pages.

My initial reaction is, "Solve global warming with acid rain?"

The theory is albedo increases due to sulphate aerosols. Real world evidence came from Pinatubo eruption that was correlated with a small pause in warming.

surely Spock would know...

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Rango said..

surely Spock would know...

The "In Search Of..." theme music brought back unexpected memories.

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Rango said..
theconversation.com/we-found-a-secret-history-of-megadroughts-written-in-tree-rings-the-wheatbelts-future-may-be-drier-than-we-thought-160526

This is about the best study Ive seen on the subject.
If you can find the paper there's a cool chart in it (no hockey sticks).
Don't think its ever possible to predict the future though.

I have been aware of that one for a while. lots of other studies support it. Natural changes to the worlds climate are significant if you simply look back a little, and you don't have to go far back to see it.

We don't appear to be doing anything in comparision to the background changes that happen, in fact there is no actual observed changes to the worlds climate apart from the slight warming we have seen in the last 40 years and perhaps a slight increase in global percipitation (not extreme, just wetter in general). The data is pretty clear on that. www.news.com.au/national/study-suggests-1500-year-long-mega-drought-killed-off-original-australians/news-story/125f5ee0fed2295bc7f2453624f08ca8?sv=13fab1a7cfaffa2253b06e28ce857b7e