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Carantoc said..
Anyways - back on topic :

April 25th 2005 :
...says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum......

If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

News 10th January 2022 :

Warning we could be in for 'one of the wettest Januarys on record' in parts of Australia

It's only ten days into the new year but so much rain has pounded parts of Australia that forecasters are now predicting it could be one of the wettest Januarys on record.

It comes as tropical cyclone Tiffany steams towards the Queensland coast, Maryborough's CBD flooded and areas near Gympie recorded more than half a metre of rainfall in a single 24-hour period.

And yet, it's not these regions that could see record breaking rain, but parts of south eastern Australia. Another storm outbreak will see rain gauges fill again this week.

"We're looking at one of the wettest Januarys on record for parts of New South Wales," said Sky News Weather senior meteorologist Tom Saunders on Monday..

.....

"We're looking at one of the wettest Januarys on record now for parts of NSW and perhaps northern and eastern Victoria due to all this rain."

www.news.com.au/technology/environment/warning-we-could-be-in-for-one-of-the-wettest-januarys-on-record-in-parts-of-australia/news-story/c9399b3902760db88ab3fb46aaa1563d

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..
Anyways - back on topic :

April 25th 2005 :
...says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum......

If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

BOM December 2021 :

New South Wales in spring 2021: fourth-wettest on record

It was the fourth-wettest spring for New South Wales since national records began in 1900

- For New South Wales overall, spring was the fourth-wettest since national records began in 1900, 69% above the 1961-1990 average.

- It was the wettest spring for the state since 2010.

- Inland of the Dividing Range, rainfall in most areas was at least 50% above average.

- A few areas had their wettest spring on record, notably around Canberra and adjoining parts of the Southern Tablelands

.....

www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/nsw/summary.shtml

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Carantoc said..
"There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, " yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable . If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

Meanwhile up and down the coast :

Townsville hit by 'intense' downpour

Almost 280 millimetres of rain fell over parts of north Queensland in just three hours last night in an intense downpour brought by a monsoonal trough.

The Bureau of Meteorology said more than 200mm of rain have fallen in parts of the Bohle Catchment since 9:00am yesterday.

Meteorologist Harry Clark said rain was likely to continue in the area for the next few days. "There's probably the potential for another 100 or 200 millimetres today and tomorrow as well," he said.

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/bom-rain-weather-townsville-qld-forecast/100784382



Rainfall approaching 'once-in-a-century' levels

The storm cells brought heavy rainfall, with some parts of Victoria recording more than 50mm in the space of an hour

"We've seen rainfall rates approach what we would expect to see once in a century," Jackson Browne, a senior forecaster for the bureau, told ABC News Breakfast.

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/very-dangerous-thunderstorms-hit-melbourne-and-vic/100784278



Territory-bound road trains blocked by flooded Stuart Hwy make 3,000km detour

The situation was being compounded by the flooding on the transcontinental railway line, which was closed between Adelaide and Tarcoola, he said." That means there is no rail freight moving from Adelaide to Darwin, or Adelaide to Perth," he said.

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-26/flooded-stuart-highway-blocks-freight-trucks-northern-territory/100782544



[b]South Australia on flood watch

[/b]Communities along the Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Flinders Creeks, Yorke Peninsula, and Broughton River on Monday remained at risk of flooding[b]

[/b]"Roxby Downs is now an island and cut off from civilisation. We are in our own Bubble," posted Simon Darling on Saturday night.

"It just keeps coming," posted the Cudgee Bar in Woomera as the rains slammed down."Wild to see water cascading down Christmas Hill Road, Opal Creek Boulevard, School Road and Dodgy Drive," wrote the Andamooka Observatory.

The South Australian State Emergency Service on Monday said multiple roads and towns on the Yorke and Eyre peninsulas may be damaged or covered in debris, with residents urged to prepare their homes for flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology said some inland areas of South Australia copped an all-time record drenching.

www.news.com.au/technology/environment/south-australia-on-flood-watch-as-forecasters-reveal-where-wild-storms-will-hit-next/news-story/50db4fe7ff45ed3df5ff968875cb3dc8



The prayers of graziers in Queensland's central-west have been answered after the region received its biggest drenching in more than 10 years.

Now, record-breaking rainfall has filled rivers and dams, bringing sweet relief to the drought-stricken area.Between 50mm to 100mm fell across the Hughenden and Richmond region overnight, with Hughenden picking up 107mm, the heaviest rainfall recorded there since February 2009.

A monsoon trough will bring further rain throughout the week.

Richmond grazier Rob Ievers said the steady nature of the rain meant it was soaking into the soil, not running off as can happen with big downpours

Meteorologist Helen Kirkup from the Bureau of Meteorology predicted the wet weather would continue.

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-26/outback-queensland-graziers-get-biggest-rainfall-in-a-decade/100782182

Monthly update and the rain keeps falling :

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Carantoc said..
"There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, " yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable . If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

Not a lot can be said about the situation up in Qld. The three largest SE Qld water supply dams - Wivenhoe at 170% capacity, Hinze and Somerset at 116% and 156%. Just about every SE qld dam is spilling.

www.seqwater.com.au/dam-levels


I am beginning to suspect either the computer models were wrong, or the person "interpreting" them was wrong.

I'm beginning to suspect that it's impossible to know what the weather will be like in ten years' time.

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..
April 25th 2005 :
"Perth is facing the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the city's water supply," says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist

"I'm personally more worried about Sydney than Perth," Flannery told me.

"There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, " yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable . If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

New day, new expert, new story.

For every degree of global warming, the atmosphere holds 7 per cent more water. Climate models show global warming increases the risk of intense rainfall by more than 20 per cent. Extreme rains and record floods have increased since 1950.

High intensity rainfall and flooding are becoming worse and breaking records

www.smh.com.au/national/the-facts-we-need-to-face-if-australia-s-coastal-towns-are-to-survive-devastation-20220228-p5a0cj.html


Seems the models show you anything you want to see - so long as it is at the extreme ends. When there is drought the models show drought. When there are floods the models show floods.

I am beginning to suspect these computers are actually crystal balls next to a window and the high profile scientists and experts reading them were trained by Mystic Meg and her tarot cards.

Don't forget though, the science is in, so no point refining the models.



oh yeah, to keep Him happy - also if my sails says I need a 430 mast would a 460 and long piece of string work ?

Yes, you need a 60cm length of string to use the 460 when a 430 mast is needed.

Is this all part of Macros plan to flood the Australian interior? Is it going to start at Brisbane?

These events only ever happen after some government somewhere in Aus has given the green-light to a new desalination plant or dam. Who was it?

I would have thought a 30 cm piece of string ????

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actiomax said..
I would have thought a 30 cm piece of string ????

Hah, you are clearly a beginner, when I know you need to use a loop. Don't start asking me about how I tie a knot in it as I don't have an answer for that and will fusion-weld it.

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..

Carantoc said..
April 25th 2005 :
"Perth is facing the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the city's water supply," says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist

"I'm personally more worried about Sydney than Perth," Flannery told me.

"There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, " yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable . If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

New day, new expert, new story.

For every degree of global warming, the atmosphere holds 7 per cent more water. Climate models show global warming increases the risk of intense rainfall by more than 20 per cent. Extreme rains and record floods have increased since 1950.

High intensity rainfall and flooding are becoming worse and breaking records

www.smh.com.au/national/the-facts-we-need-to-face-if-australia-s-coastal-towns-are-to-survive-devastation-20220228-p5a0cj.html


Seems the models show you anything you want to see - so long as it is at the extreme ends. When there is drought the models show drought. When there are floods the models show floods.

I am beginning to suspect these computers are actually crystal balls next to a window and the high profile scientists and experts reading them were trained by Mystic Meg and her tarot cards.

Don't forget though, the science is in, so no point refining the models.



oh yeah, to keep Him happy - also if my sails says I need a 430 mast would a 460 and long piece of string work ?

One thing that "the science" seems clear on is that only bad stuff will happen. Wet areas will get wetter, dry areas drier, hot areas hotter and cold areas...I dunno...colder?

It wouldn't suit my heavily-taxpayer-subsidised investments in renewable energy if it were suggested that climate change could lead to dry or frozen areas becoming arable, so let's not go there.

...and I think I may have too much downhaul on my wingding.

i think these are kite spots

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..
oh yeah, to keep Him happy - also if my sails says I need a 430 mast would a 460 and long piece of string work ?

Not sure how long your piece of string needs to be, but it will be able to forecast the weather better than those models you speak of. If your piece of string is wet, then it's raining.

"Decades of Ignored Warnings are leaving towns with flood refugees"

"The flood trauma runs right across Australia's east coast"

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-11/four-corners-flood-investigation-lismore-western-sydney/101217494




But....but... I'm confused. 'Decades ago' the warnings we all ignored were ones of permanent drought....

Select to expand quote

April 25th 2005 :
says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist

"There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, " yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable . If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

In 2011 if you dared to question the insanity of Tim Flannery, the Chief Commissioner of the Climate Council (a federal government body providing information on climate change to the Australian public) you were sure to be declared a denialist and an enemy of society.

The boy who cried wolf did nobody any favours. Not himself, not the villagers, not the wolf and not even the sheep.

Can u send some of the dam water over to Perth?
We need a pipeline but our Govt won't do it, as it takes longer than one term in office

Did you know Mark_A the snowy scheme is not running at full capacity because there is too much water in the system.

Yep, hydro plant can't discharge to produce power as everything downstream is chockers.

Bet if it was the other way round it would be making headline news for days on end and would signal the immanent end of the world.

Select to expand quote

Mark _australia said..
Can u send some of the dam water over to Perth?
We need a pipeline but our Govt won't do it, as it takes longer than one term in office

Whole Europe was running on natural gas from pipelines directly.

Now they found that like more a liquid one not gaseous gas.
So at first it will be liquid natural-LNG , then LPG from 4kg bottles
and next year whole Europe will buy all cigarete lighters from US and release gas to power homes and industries.

No doubt. Europe is going to save US economy now!
We did our bit too, in saving them from economic catastrophe in 200 bln submarines order.

Ukraine is saving by ordering half a trillions in weapons _ BUY NOW PAY LATER.

By the same example I suggest we could bottle this excess water from Snowy Hydro and ship by trucks ( or even better Australia Post) to Perth and then release to rivers there . Empty bottles we could then dump into ocean. This way we could stimulate economy by providing so needed job , for people to bottle the water, truck drivers, emptying and dumping bottles people.




Now we could see how everything come together nicely. Our submarines could be useless if rivers in Perth ,where submarines are hiding becomes dry. We could refill those rivers from those bottles and save from Chinese eyes. We could make more bottles and refill Sydney harbor too, looks too shallow for me to hide nukes.





Then we could employ our frigates to fish those emptied bottles from ocean!
This way we could save marine life ! What a great story !

Sydney set to record its wettest year in history

Despite it being just early October, the harbour city is already experiencing its second-wettest year in history in 164 years of records dating back to 1858

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-set-to-record-wettest-year-in-history-as-major-weather-system-smashes-nation-s-east-20221005-p5bndb.html




Nah.

Can't be

No way.

Must be more of that fake news. 17 years ago experts told us Sydney would be out of water by 2007. And the experts told us the politicians weren't listening.

Oh hang on, no that "expert" was a politician. Just an unelected one. Politicking for their own personal benefit.

Lucky nobody listened to the iduts.

Select to expand quote

April 25th 2005 :
says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist

"There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, " yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable . If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."

Were in our third consecutive la Nina which means higher than average rainfall.

Select to expand quote

myusernam said..
Were in our third consecutive la Nina which means higher than average rainfall.

Might be why summer was so wet here then.

All that water vapor won't be good for the global warming...

Select to expand quote

Macroscien

Ukraine is saving by ordering half a trillions in weapons _ BUY NOW PAY LATER.

Ukraine is borrowing money from US taxpayers to pay US weapon producers. Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

No one really gives a damn whether they can ever pay back the loans to the taxpayers, is all just a transference on the balance sheet.

Select to expand quote

Rails said..

Macroscien

Ukraine is saving by ordering half a trillions in weapons _ BUY NOW PAY LATER.

Ukraine is borrowing money from US taxpayers to pay US weapon producers. Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

No one really gives a damn whether they can ever pay back the loans to the taxpayers, is all just a transference on the balance sheet.

Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

Wouldn't that be one of the many?

Select to expand quote

bobajob said..

Rails said..

Macroscien

Ukraine is saving by ordering half a trillions in weapons _ BUY NOW PAY LATER.

Ukraine is borrowing money from US taxpayers to pay US weapon producers. Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

No one really gives a damn whether they can ever pay back the loans to the taxpayers, is all just a transference on the balance sheet.

Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

Wouldn't that be one of the many?

Yeh, but inflation, maybe east India company has them beat in real terms

Select to expand quote

Rails said..

bobajob said..

Rails said..

Macroscien

Ukraine is saving by ordering half a trillions in weapons _ BUY NOW PAY LATER.

Ukraine is borrowing money from US taxpayers to pay US weapon producers. Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

No one really gives a damn whether they can ever pay back the loans to the taxpayers, is all just a transference on the balance sheet.

Greatest transfer of national wealth into private hands the world has ever seen and one of the greatest scams.

Wouldn't that be one of the many?

Yeh, but inflation, maybe east India company has them beat in real terms

With such difference that was 1 bln hard working people to sustain empire lifestyle and now campus of enslaved countries shrinks to mere 14 colonies. We have to work twice as much and sacrifice even more. I wonder which one of those 14 will vote for independence first. If that will be N Z or Aussie to vote Republic?
But it looks that national referendum are not really supported now , rather becomes suppressed.
btw Looking at historical highest prices of everything we do export and greatest volume one may wonder how we managed to produce the greatest's national debts? Where all the money goes?


australiandebtclock.com.au/

tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports





Definitely not on my DC high voltage network we urgently needs. But there is nice example where Egypt is actually building such cable to supply Europe with green energy.

www.africanews.com/2022/09/15/undersea-power-cable-to-connect-egypt-to-europe-via-greece//



www.euronews.com/2022/09/17/this-1373km-long-undersea-cable-will-bring-green-energy-from-egypt-to-europes-electricity-


But I think I resolved that mystery of missing Australian billions, where gigantic budget surplus becomes converted into monstrous deficit!
Since Egyptians build 1300 km long undersee transmission line we need to build 20.000 km to supply London with free green energy!


But there is also big opportunity for savings ! Since we may have this undersee electric cables running from Australia , spanning whole globe,
We don't need nuclear powered subs anymore.
Our subs can crawl on the bottom of the ocean and feed on our green electricity. We just need to build next cable running from London to Chinese Sea

Select to expand quote

Macroscien said..
.... But there is nice example where Egypt is actually building such cable to supply Europe with green energy

Hey Macro, I googled that article and it seems to say Greece is building the cable not Egypt. So the consumers not the retailers. But anyways...

It also say $3.5bln euro for 1373km. That feeds into a network of 450 million EU consumers, so that's like somewhere about $12 each equivalent ?

But here in Aus if you scale that then you get $15bln to go 4,000km Sydney to Perth to feed 2 million people on the WA grid.

That's like 600 and something times more expensive.


You sure local generation isn't a better idea than covering the world in cables ?


Oh yeah, also says 1,300km will take 7 to 8 years to build. So that would be like 21 years to build the same from east to west Aus. Surely in 21 years time your fellow extra terrestrials will have given us the gift of eternal energy ?

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..

Macroscien said..
.... But there is nice example where Egypt is actually building such cable to supply Europe with green energy

Hey Macro, I googled that article and it seems to say Greece is building the cable not Egypt. So the consumers not the retailers. But anyways...

It also say $3.5bln euro for 1373km. That feeds into a network of 450 million EU consumers, so that's like somewhere about $12 each equivalent ?

But here in Aus if you scale that then you get $15bln to go 4,000km Sydney to Perth to feed 2 million people on the WA grid.

That's like 600 and something times more expensive.


You sure local generation isn't a better idea than covering the world in cables ?


Oh yeah, also says 1,300km will take 7 to 8 years to build. So that would be like 21 years to build the same from east to west Aus. Surely in 21 years time your fellow extra terrestrials will have given us the gift of eternal energy ?

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..

Macroscien said..
.... But there is nice example where Egypt is actually building such cable to supply Europe with green energy

Hey Macro, I googled that article and it seems to say Greece is building the cable not Egypt. So the consumers not the retailers. But anyways...

It also say $3.5bln euro for 1373km. That feeds into a network of 450 million EU consumers, so that's like somewhere about $12 each equivalent ?

But here in Aus if you scale that then you get $15bln to go 4,000km Sydney to Perth to feed 2 million people on the WA grid.

That's like 600 and something times more expensive.


You sure local generation isn't a better idea than covering the world in cables ?


Oh yeah, also says 1,300km will take 7 to 8 years to build. So that would be like 21 years to build the same from east to west Aus. Surely in 21 years time your fellow extra terrestrials will have given us the gift of eternal energy ?

I don't really bother about retail consumer, read households in Australia.
I have my 20 kw solar plus battery here and on the farm and don't care how much electric energy cost anymore.
Most can do the same.

It is funny a bit since my daily production range from 50 kwh at winter to 110kwh at summer time,

then I read about Europe now trying to regulate energy prices for retail users.

They do assume that average European 4 person family consume 5 kWh a day and that is allowance covered by guarantee price.

All above price of energy could hit the Sun and Moon.

But having good quality electric transmission network in Australia create enormous business opportunity.

Having the cheapest energy in the world , green and free that could work for us , and we don't need ( to work) .

Having unlimited supply of electric energy we could decide what we want to do with it.

For example process our ore into value added product. Run computer servers to mint bitcoins or just data centers for Google. Send electric rocket to the Moon and Mars.
Even switch to electric cars for everybody and still will be enough electricity left.
There is also problem with your concept of localized energy production.
Because it means that for most of the time your home solar panel will not be productive and nobody by energy from you, Or pay you penny per kwh,

For example 2c to 6c since real price somebody willing to pay is 20 to 30c.
For example aluminum smelter but the need really bit pipe to suck the juice from multiple suppliers.

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..

Macroscien said..
.... But there is nice example where Egypt is actually building such cable to supply Europe with green energy

Hey Macro, I googled that article and it seems to say Greece is building the cable not Egypt. So the consumers not the retailers. But anyways...

It also say $3.5bln euro for 1373km. That feeds into a network of 450 million EU consumers, so that's like somewhere about $12 each equivalent ?

But here in Aus if you scale that then you get $15bln to go 4,000km Sydney to Perth to feed 2 million people on the WA grid.

That's like 600 and something times more expensive.


You sure local generation isn't a better idea than covering the world in cables ?


Oh yeah, also says 1,300km will take 7 to 8 years to build. So that would be like 21 years to build the same from east to west Aus. Surely in 21 years time your fellow extra terrestrials will have given us the gift of eternal energy ?

That will surely go over his head.

Select to expand quote

Carantoc said..
If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent...

says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist

Been a bit busy to flog a dead horse, so haven't been noting the daily situation across the country for the last few months.

But suffice to say that record flooding on the Murray-Darling from Menindee to coast and beyond to the largest flows ever recorded on the Fitzroy River in the north and widespread flooding across the Kimberley seems to provide some evidence the models are wrong (at least) stand corrected.

Is a peer reviewed paper required to prove that Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist was wrong ?

Bit too early to tell, this could be the really big wet, before the humungus dry. Give it another 50 years and then see how far off he was.

But if our wind forecasts are anything to go by, computer models suck!

When l made my journey from Sydney to Perth, l took this foto of the Murrumbidgee river, near hay.(nsw) l have never. Seen so much water in a rural town in my 57 years of life.it was mine blowing.

I thought l share this ,it was a wet trip over.my gps was useless.l had to make a few changes.The SES were my guardian to get through all that water.it was a wet trip across.

Select to expand quote

Macroscien said..
But having good quality electric transmission network in Australia create enormous business opportunity.

Having the cheapest energy in the world , green and free that could work for us , and we don't need ( to work) .

Having unlimited supply of electric energy we could decide what we want to do with it.

For example process our ore into value added product. Run computer servers to mint bitcoins or just data centers for Google. Send electric rocket to the Moon and Mars.
Even switch to electric cars for everybody and still will be enough electricity left.
There is also problem with your concept of localized energy production.
Because it means that for most of the time your home solar panel will not be productive and nobody by energy from you, Or pay you penny per kwh,

For example 2c to 6c since real price somebody willing to pay is 20 to 30c.
For example aluminum smelter but the need really bit pipe to suck the juice from multiple suppliers.

A lot of it is already being planned and will be gradually commissioned in the later half of this decade. Double-circuit 500 kV lines in QLD, NSW and VIC, from Townsville down to Brissy and from Snowy Hydro down to Melbourne. There's also a new double-circuit 330 kV link between NSW and SA on the way. All to share solar and wind generated power between regions.

www.epw.qld.gov.au/energyandjobsplan/about/supergrid
www.transgrid.com.au/projects-innovation/vni-west
www.projectenergyconnect.com.au/

And I guess you know about Sun Cable?

suncable.energy/australia-asia-power-link/

Aluminium smelters are easy enough to supply, typically being a few hundred MW each which is less than the capacity of a single-circuit 330 kV transmission line. It is the delivered price of electricity and a shipping port that mostly affects where aluminium smelters locate and a very small change in that price can cause them to shift production to another country.

The MUCH bigger challenge is connecting many thousands of MW of renewable generation to the grid and having interconnection transmission capacity to be able to share the geographically diverse renewable energy supply for times that the sun and wind are/aren't shining or blowing in different states.