Perfect Storm (financial)?

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Created by

Macroscien > 9 months ago, 13 Mar 2020

Paddles B'mere

QLD

3586 posts

24 Mar 2020 9:25pm

The disclaimer for Main - my opinion that resources may be in demand when this is all over does not constitute financial advice and is merely common sense

Main

QLD

2338 posts

25 Mar 2020 6:29am

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holy guacamole said..
^ Yep. Interesting...the market's dropped as much as '87 and the '29 crashes....so will it be a bear trap?

Stay tuned. Plenty of hungry bears here who think they smell fresh fish but more likely it's rotten.

There's more than a few analysts calling it (unofficially of course). if this gets drawn out for 6 months it will be hard to avoid

Main

QLD

2338 posts

25 Mar 2020 6:32am

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Paddles B'mere said..
The disclaimer for Main - my opinion that resources may be in demand when this is all over does not constitute financial advice and is merely common sense

I'm so long on resources two speccies have turned into caravan manufacturers ??

eppo

9762 posts

25 Mar 2020 8:07am

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Razzonater said..
It's still got a long way to drop, right now picking up shares you are catching the falling knife.
That being said there is a few that are at bargain basement pricing particularly blue chip shares.
distribute evenly if purchasing, some in gold shares some in banks and some in medical or food ie : westfarmers bhp anz

It is best if buying that you cost average if you are going to spend 5000 buy only 500 per week.

From China's time period it took around 8-10 weeks until they seen a drop in cases and control of virus so I would cost average over a period of ten weeks.

If you however wait another 4 before buying shares it is likely that you will get at least a 25% return on your investment in 12 months.

This is taking into account that we control the first wave and the second wave of the virus has not mutated in which case your ten weeks becomes 20-30 with your minimum 25% return taking 18-24 months to materialise

Personally I will be waiting another 3 weeks prior to starting to procure as it is guaranteed Western Australia and other states will go into lockdown, we have around 6-8 days before we hit 10000 cases in australia

It is only at this stage that our government will implement lockdown, those of you who played the crypto game with me, I suggest you reread above twice.

When the bounce happens their will be at least two dead cat bounces meaning you can play twice, or buy after the first at a higher cost average or wait for the second at a lower cost average but with a much smaller window to purchase and 0 to no opportunity to trade after for a profit in a 6 month window.

Thats it , get onboard or don't

What's your technical or fundamental analysis behind your conclusions here ?

Bara

647 posts

26 Mar 2020 6:49am

^^^^

The bears have gone quiet. They will be back on the next down day prognosticating more doom based on fear of the unknown and good dose of Harry hindsight charting interpretation.

Won't be today though.

Main

QLD

2338 posts

26 Mar 2020 9:33am

Dont worry we will be here for weeks if not months.....

Marvin

725 posts

26 Mar 2020 7:56am

Bear markets - a massive plunge, the odd false dawn, and a long, long grind lower. I'm with Harrow, we'll see 3500 on the ASX200, perhaps overshooting even lower. Still, hasn't stopped me $ cost averaging back in - showing a profit today lol. (Qualifier: I have a 5 - 10 year investment horizon, so it's a risk worth taking.). I'm a bit wary about switching my super fund strategy to risk-on as yet though - a lot of direct super fund investments (like infrastructure) yet to be marked down to market (according to Robert Glottalstop in the Australian).

eppo

9762 posts

26 Mar 2020 8:17am

Maybe the old move to the midpoint, then down to the midpoint of the midpoint, sideways for a number of months then another even greater low which may break this magical 3500 barrier you are discussing. See if I'm right

evlPanda

NSW

9207 posts

26 Mar 2020 12:04pm

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Bara said..
The bears have gone quiet. They will be back on the next down day prognosticating more doom based on fear of the unknown and good dose of Harry hindsight charting interpretation.

Geez they'll be annoying over the next 3 years.

Here's a genuinely interesting indicator: The Gold to Silver exchange rate is the highest it has been in 5,000 years.

www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-longest-record-broken%3A-gold-silver-ratio-hits-highest-in-over-5000-years-2020-03-17

evlPanda

NSW

9207 posts

26 Mar 2020 12:16pm

Does extreme volatility mean it's nearly over, usually?

..I mean, nobody is even sure if we are about to head into a massive inflationary, or deflationary period. That's crazy.

Chaos.

Bara

647 posts

26 Mar 2020 10:24am

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Main said..
Dont worry we will be here for weeks if not months.....

Wouldnt have it any other way. There's informed opinion and then theres blind panic. Happy to discuss the former.

So have you put your money where mouth is though? Turned your house into gold bricks and shorted the banks yet?

If so respect. Right or wrong. The worst are the ones that mouth off but do nothing about it.

Bara

647 posts

26 Mar 2020 10:34am

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evlPanda said..
Does extreme volatility mean it's nearly over, usually?

..I mean, nobody is even sure if we are about to head into a massive inflationary, or deflationary period. That's crazy.

Chaos.

Who the hell knows eh. The liquidity crunch has mispriced alot of things in the dash for cash. The fed cant stop the virus but they csn stop the liquidity crunch and thats already happening. That's what's behind the volatility

Gold, equities and bonds all up simultaneously is the proof things are becoming more orderly again.

My bet is volatility will reduce gradually but we will still see plenty of up and down days as new info comes to hand. I also reckon volatility is skewed to the upside. Ie we are still priced for Armageddon but good news could cause a step change in risk perception while bad news is basically baked in give or take.

Defo crazy crazy times.

bazz61

QLD

3570 posts

26 Mar 2020 1:01pm

Private Jets are flying into NZ bolt holes , rich Americans cashed out early they new what was happening , straight from the pilots mouth , a friend who has flown his boss to his east coast farm .

Harrow

NSW

4521 posts

26 Mar 2020 2:03pm

After switching to conservative at 6500, I've switched to mild aggressive at 5000. Will see if I got lucky, or will the dead cat pounce.

japie

NSW

7145 posts

26 Mar 2020 3:08pm

Harrow

NSW

4521 posts

26 Mar 2020 3:36pm

^^^ Another person using "today's" figures. Can you honestly not see the trend in the graph below? Do you know what exponential growth is?

japie

NSW

7145 posts

26 Mar 2020 4:56pm

I don't know about the graph below.

I have been following Gerald Celeste for ten years.

He's made a name for himself accurately forecasting trends over the past thirty years and for giving accurate and insightful political commentary.

Of course he may be wrong but I know who I'd bet on.

petermac33

6415 posts

26 Mar 2020 2:23pm

www.greaterfool.ca/2020/03/25/houseageddon/

Chris 249

NSW

3531 posts

26 Mar 2020 6:55pm

Sell, sell, sell the following;

1- anything to do with sock manufacturing. I can't be the only one who has suddenly found time to go through all my odd socks and pair them up. By the time we're all out and free, everyone will have found that they already have five years supplies of matched socks and no need for any more.

2 - Insurance firm shares. It's only March and 2020 has already had drought, fires, floods in some areas, and a pandemic - and winter is coming. By June, Godzilla will be wandering Sydney Harbour. By spring, the zombies will be marching. Imagine how many claims for household damage White Walkers, nuclear monsters and zombies will cause.

Buy, buy, buy;

1- Shares in corporate law firms specialising in family law. How many couples will handle being cooped up for too long?

2- Windsurfer LTs - no one will be able to afford anything else and yet after a few months stuck at home, everyone will be raring to get out there.

3- Shares in country properties with their own lake to sail on, and land to grow food. By 2021, a 1% share in such a property will be worth millions. Trust me.

4- Shares in baby shops and maternity hospitals. What else is there for young couples to do?

The preceding is professional advice. Ten percent of all your profits must be sent to me. If you make a loss, bad luck - privatise the profits and corporatise the losses is the way to go.

Main

QLD

2338 posts

26 Mar 2020 6:59pm

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Bara said..

Main said..
Dont worry we will be here for weeks if not months.....

Been waiting 3 years.....! To buy some new sites that is. Not long to wait now.
Not a heavy share market investor - it's a really good indicator of what property and property owners will be doing though....ps married to a former derivatives trader and it caused too many arguments whenever she traded our account and got it wrong

Macroscien

QLD

6808 posts

27 Mar 2020 10:17am

Surprisingly some may still think that printing money will solve all problems.
In absence of running production lines, common self isolation
.Everybody could stay at home , then do shopping from time to time to get supplies.
Whole nations convert now into consumers from producers and suppliers. Its appear that financial reserves families had , were very limited. Exhausted in the matters of weeks.

Hopefully material goods accommodated for some time will last, but for how long?

For future reference , I think that problem could be resolved by introduction of personal hazard suites for everybody.
People walking on the streets in space suits everywhere , but we are not at this stage yet,.
Maybe when Corona combine with Ebola at killing efficiency, such need will arise.

The question is what is printed money worth in the world when nobody do anything?

slammin

QLD

998 posts

7 Apr 2020 9:17am

Looking more positive this week, I'm ready to drip feed the market but I think it'll drop some when next months figures are released.

Waddya reckon?

Harrow

NSW

4521 posts

7 Apr 2020 9:37am

^^^ I was speaking to my brother in law on the weekend who is a very switched on economist and provides consultancy advice to a lot of the larger investment firms. My question to him was "Is the share market good value now, or is it likely to drop another 30%?"

His answer, "Probably yes, and probably yes."

In other words, good opportunity exists now, but be prepared to sit tight on the roller coaster for some time yet. So, ease in gradually over several months, and don't use any money that you might need in the next couple of years. Hopefully, you've got the constitution to view any drop in your ongoing investment as an ever-increasing opportunity.

Here's a perspective you might like consider....think of anyone that bought shares in the last 6 years. If you buy now. whatever happens, you're already ahead of most of them.

Gboots

NSW

1321 posts

7 Apr 2020 4:27pm

I'm diversifying across everything.
Don't trust having money in deposit only, especially with one bank (even if less than $250K).
Also I have starting spreading remaining deposits across all four major banks. Might lose some fees and interest but better than losing all your capital in a Bank Bail in.

Using ETF's (long and short), Stocks, PMGold, 30 Day Bank Bills, Floating Rate Notes, Government Bonds, Fixed Interest.... You name it I am diversifying. Will transfer more from cash into these assets on a daily basis

petermac33

6415 posts

7 Apr 2020 6:55pm

Interesting link showing the amount of money football clubs in Britain pay their players.

Easy to understand why there is a large underclass when so few take so much.

www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/sport/football/middlesbrough-fc/revealed-middlesbroughs-staggering-wage-bill-increase-1992-compared-british-rivals-leeds-celtic-and-rangers-2531553

eppo

9762 posts

8 Apr 2020 6:31am

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slammin said..
Looking more positive this week, I'm ready to drip feed the market but I think it'll drop some when next months figures are released.

Waddya reckon?

I reckon you have a very limited data base of information (based on current market price action) to make a call. And using next months figures is far too delayed as the market will already have priced this in. No wonder 95 percent plus of market participants lose their capital. And I wouldn't be listening to any modern economists either. They have neither forewarned nor explained the lead into and eventual market corrections. Their modern models don't work and anyone who's lived through at least one GFC type correction would have to agree, unless they are blind or just down right stupid. They see land as capital and yet it's not a cost of production. It's not created. A fundamental and massively fcked up assumption.

although to be fair harrows man is actually correct. Expect a correction in early May, sideways movement then another low Sep / Oct that could very well be 30
percent lower. But the actual final low will be in 2021. History says so. So yeh a roller coaster for sure.

evlPanda

NSW

9207 posts

8 Apr 2020 10:00am

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bazz61 said..
Private Jets are flying into NZ bolt holes , rich Americans cashed out early they new what was happening , straight from the pilots mouth , a friend who has flown his boss to his east coast farm .

Wouldn't they just rather isolate somewhere nice? I know my neighbours are doing similar, in the country, seaside.

evlPanda

NSW

9207 posts

8 Apr 2020 10:03am

Absolute discretion': Super fund Hostplus rewrites PDS to suspend cash withdrawals
www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/super-fund-hostplus-rewrites-rules-to-suspend-cash-withdrawals-20200407-p54hqc.html

The $44 billion superannuation fund representing the hospitality industry has updated its product disclosure statement to highlight its "absolute discretion" to "suspend or restrict" applications for cash withdrawals, while defending its ability to pay out the government's emergency early access scheme.

slammin

QLD

998 posts

8 Apr 2020 12:12pm

I hear you Eppo, it's unprecedented times.

I think there'll be more and more good news as virus levels peak and in May the people that qualify for the various corona virus wage subsidies get their backdated pay.
There's going to be downturns like today's credit rating drop but it's impossible to pick the bottom and these times will pass. How soon or quickly is a million dollar question?

evlPanda

NSW

9207 posts

8 Apr 2020 6:19pm

Take a look at this list.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Without wanting to sound like a smart arse, I've been expecting a downturn for a couple of years, and have been moving into cash as a result, since early 2017. A tad early.

The pandemic is not the problem. It's just a very, very big match.

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