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Paddles B'mere said..
Yeah, the joint is going to go nuts once this is all over.

agree - the steeper the V on the way down the steeper and quicker on the other side basically. Timing the bottom is tricky at the best of times but this one will be next level. You cant buy volatility at 50 to 70% either.

I reckon we would have seen a decent bounce locally this week if not for the NSW cruise ship fiasco and subsequent shutdowns earlier than planned. 80 to 140 billion dollar turnaround in our markets just from that. Now thats some volatility!

Markets will always look through the current panic so you could easily see markets rallying as cases spike at some point.

the fly in the ointment is if the V turns into a U if we keep the shutdown brakes on too long. That risk went up when NSW was forced to move sooner than otherwise. Thanks Bondi backpackers and NSW ports.

I reckon its the reason they keep banging on about 6 month shutdowns - they want people to think its serious so they comply and we flatten their curve so they can release the brakes sooner.

There is absolutely NO WAY our economy can be shut for 6 months without the U turning into something more like a couple of lying down "I"s and they know it.

Personally I reckon the cost we are paying economically per each vulnerable life we might save is way too high. We could have spent a few billion on putting all our oldies on some free round the world cruises (with 14 day quarantine before they get onboard). Isolate the ones that cant travel.

Problem solved and we dont come out of it a trillion deep in public debt and a million plus unemployed.

The markets have usually priced in the downside before us hobbyists even think about it. I wonder how much downside they have priced ?

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Main said..
The markets have usually priced in the downside before us hobbyists even think about it. I wonder how much downside they have priced ?

Just a couple -

Oz banks - basically priced for a blow out in bad debts to 7% from less than 1% currently. (in the GFC it was a bit over2%) So yeah probably overdone

Qantas - briefly traded below its estimated replacement cost but now just above it. So basically priced as if it was gonna be sold in a fire sale.

so fair to say the markets have priced for a sustained U right now not a V.

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Bara said..

Main said..
The markets have usually priced in the downside before us hobbyists even think about it. I wonder how much downside they have priced ?

Just a couple -

Oz banks - basically priced for a blow out in bad debts to 7% from less than 1% currently. (in the GFC it was a bit over2%) So yeah probably overdone

Qantas - briefly traded below its estimated replacement cost but now just above it. So basically priced as if it was gonna be sold in a fire sale.

so fair to say the markets have priced for a sustained U right now not a V.

It would be healthier to see six months of stagnation and then recovery . A quick V is more likely cat bounce

Haha the prognosticating going on here as if this is any ordinary economic shock is laughable.

We haven't seen a brake on economic activity this bad since the GD, so perhaps we shouldn't go forecasting shyte just yet.

fark i agree with bonominator. this will deeply fxck the world. scomo announces a little spending package and people jump on board?! give it 6 months danielson.

You're agreeing with an avocado. Risky business there.

In the next few weeks, there will either be some recognisable control over the infection rates, or the exponential rise will continue. If it ends up being the later, there'll be even more stringent controls put in place, and another dive. That's where my 3500 pick comes from. No-one knows yet, so I figure we're currently priced between the two. (ie, 4500, halfway between the 3500 floor, and 5500 slow recovery level.). Putting your money in now is a bet on a two-horse race, which do you think is the favourite?

For the lazy investor, a monthly feed, dollar cost averaging into an ASX200 ETF over the next 12 months sound about right?

Keep dreaming Harrow. You know jack shyte where this is going, just as everyone else....

I said it's going to either go up or down. I expect time will show that I know exactly what I'm talking about.

And I've never met this Jack fellow you keep talking about, is he a sailor?

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Harrow said..
In the next few weeks, there will either be some recognisable control over the infection rates, or the exponential rise will continue. If it ends up being the later, there'll be even more stringent controls put in place, and another dive. That's where my 3500 pick comes from. No-one knows yet, so I figure we're currently priced between the two. (ie, 4500, halfway between the 3500 floor, and 5500 slow recovery level.). Putting your money in now is a bet on a two-horse race, which do you think is the favourite?

For the lazy investor, a monthly feed, dollar cost averaging into an ASX200 ETF over the next 12 months sound about right?

thats what im going to do. might even withdraw money from an investment loan when its on the rise and things are looking better.

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holy guacamole said..
Haha the prognosticating going on here as if this is any ordinary economic shock is laughable.

We haven't seen a brake on economic activity this bad since the GD, so perhaps we shouldn't go forecasting shyte just yet.

hey bono you can either throw your hands up in the air and panic or you can calmly work through whats going on and look for the eventual opportunity. There will be one as sure as night follows day. Markets under stress ALWAYS misprice.

The GFC was no ordinary economic shock either by the way - we were a bees dick from total financial calamity but dragged our way out via massive public debt and a firing China. China may save us in oz once again who knows but the proven potential is there.

I find the ones that enjoy a good panic a bit laughable personally but each to their own

Harrow yes gradual average in my thinking too. lots more volatility to come both up and down yet. the VIX says so.

Im off for a surf while i still can

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Bara said..

Main said..
The markets have usually priced in the downside before us hobbyists even think about it. I wonder how much downside they have priced ?

Just a couple -

Oz banks - basically priced for a blow out in bad debts to 7% from less than 1% currently. (in the GFC it was a bit over2%) So yeah probably overdone

Qantas - briefly traded below its estimated replacement cost but now just above it. So basically priced as if it was gonna be sold in a fire sale.

so fair to say the markets have priced for a sustained U right now not a V.

So many good companies are so cheap its a mind f$ck trying to narrow down on two or three. I cant even bring myself to look at US companies.

Faaark Main, let's spoon feed you .................................... what's going to be needed when the world booms on the other side of this mess ......................... resources for one!

How about some thing positive , a cure or vaccine is developed shortly , highly likely , and we return to a more usual society probably tilted to more of a socialist type for a while .
There are 24 million 900 thousand out of 25 million or so plus who aren't sick, focus on that .

www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21188900/coronavirus-stock-market-recession-depression-trump-jobs-unemployment

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Paddles B'mere said..
Faaark Main, let's spoon feed you .................................... what's going to be needed when the world booms on the other side of this mess ......................... resources for one!

If you're going to spoon feed, do it properly. I'd like ASX codes and buy prices please. Mouth open wide....here comes the aeroplane.

See asx went up 190 odd pts. today on word China has hit ground zero and may relax on 9th April.
So Australias way forward if China ramps up. Mines , lots and lots of new mines , another mining construction boom . Coal and iron and lots of it to feed the new coal power stations in China and Japan . OR we can let the greenies ramp up and kill the golden egg.
Hmm picked up some ANZ might get some BHP.

Wow so much projected doom and gloom extrapolated from a short period of time. Markets were due a correction (as the likes of buffet knew) and yeh while the virus has accentuated the market pricing in lost earnings, it will return. And when it does watch out!! as these big government spendings globally plus release of the banks regs will see massive credit creation ... and off we go again like lemmings to a cliff.
1919 end of a world war, millions die. Soldiers bring back the Spanish flu, death and economic disparity. Need I point out what happened after that. I could actually pick several examples with noticeable time frames, but this will do for now.
We are in a expected recession, virus or not, it built into the very DNA of the system
ps those on here mentioning their desire to fish at the bottom of the barrel, good luck. Just get a wad of notes and burn them, it would be a lot quicker.

unless of course you want to hold for a good 18 months, because expect a lower low later this year and even anticipate the bottom in 2021 sometime if history repeats yet again.

Wow so much projected doom and gloom extrapolated from a short period of time. Markets were due a correction (as the likes of buffet knew) and yeh while the virus has accentuated the market pricing in lost earnings, it will return. And when it does watch out!! as these big government spendings globally plus release of the banks regs will see massive credit creation ... and off we go again like lemmings of a capatilistic cliff. (Although as japiensaid our system no longer represents this term whatsoever

1919 end of a world war, millions die. Soldiers bring back the Spanish flu, death and economic disparity. Need I point out what happened after that. I could actually pick several examples with noticeable time frames, but this will do for now.

We are in a expected recession, virus or not, it built into the very DNA of the system
ps those on here mentioning their desire to fish at the bottom of the barrel, good luck. Just get a wad of notes and burn them, it would be a lot quicker.



unless of course you want to hold for a good 18 months, because expect a lower low later this year and even anticipate the bottom in 2021 sometime if history repeats yet again.

It's still got a long way to drop, right now picking up shares you are catching the falling knife.
That being said there is a few that are at bargain basement pricing particularly blue chip shares.
distribute evenly if purchasing, some in gold shares some in banks and some in medical or food ie : westfarmers bhp anz

It is best if buying that you cost average if you are going to spend 5000 buy only 500 per week.

From China's time period it took around 8-10 weeks until they seen a drop in cases and control of virus so I would cost average over a period of ten weeks.

If you however wait another 4 before buying shares it is likely that you will get at least a 25% return on your investment in 12 months.

This is taking into account that we control the first wave and the second wave of the virus has not mutated in which case your ten weeks becomes 20-30 with your minimum 25% return taking 18-24 months to materialise

Personally I will be waiting another 3 weeks prior to starting to procure as it is guaranteed Western Australia and other states will go into lockdown, we have around 6-8 days before we hit 10000 cases in australia

It is only at this stage that our government will implement lockdown, those of you who played the crypto game with me, I suggest you reread above twice.

When the bounce happens their will be at least two dead cat bounces meaning you can play twice, or buy after the first at a higher cost average or wait for the second at a lower cost average but with a much smaller window to purchase and 0 to no opportunity to trade after for a profit in a 6 month window.

Thats it , get onboard or don't

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bazz61 said..How about some thing positive , a cure or vaccine is developed shortly , highly likely , and we return to a more usual society probably tilted to more of a socialist type for a while . There are 24 million 900 thousand out of 25 million or so plus who aren't sick, focus on that .

What, you mean focus on those less fortunate at a time when about a million newly unemployed are hitting Centrelink, or make wealth more common in a Commonwealth?

FFS don't you get it Bazz that for many people, a worldwide pandemic is a time to be completely self centred and make some profit......

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holy guacamole said..

bazz61 said..How about some thing positive , a cure or vaccine is developed shortly

FFS don't you get it Bazz that for many people, a worldwide pandemic is a time to be completely self centred and make some profit......

And for others it seems it's a time to run around screaming the sky is falling the sky is falling!

I reckon showing a calm and reasoned approach in a crisis is far far more useful for society as a whole though and that will help those less fortunate you are so faux concerned about bono.

No sweat bazz the cure is here. Good ol chloroquine. Trials underway.

Yep calm and relaxed .....they should legalise Weed urgently ....

Hey bara look who's doing the screaming "bono bono bonee blah blah".

All calm here, just shooting the breeze. Reading a lot and paying attention.

Even Macquarie Bank thinks capitalism as we know it is failing...

I think that this is potentially a huge bear trap on the markets. You would do well to avoid investing now. It's worse than the GFC (as CommBank said) and it has all the potential to make the GD bear trap look like a punter's picnic.

A lot hinges on the US. Trump, the worst president that great nation have ever seen looks like he's going into denial again and talking about not compromising the economy, right at the most dangerous time. Watch the US...

^^

Nah you've defo been a panic merchant guacobono but nice to see you are calming down just a little.

Yes I agree capitalism is failing but this is not the death blow. In all likelihood we will shoot out the other side of this on fiscal steroids. Bit of water to go under scomos bridge first though.

Trumps a fool but a cunning one. He is right that the economic cure is doing more harm than the disease and a trade off needs to be made. If the cure ends up being as promising as the French trials he may skate through on dumb luck yet again.

Well if you're panicking baranobo sorry to hear that. All sweet here...

Let's see how many more times the steroids can keep capitalism as we know it on life support.....we can only print so much money...

Ultimately, probably nothing will aid recovery faster than government driving massive infrastructure and manufacturing initiatives.

Nationalising mineral wealth would be the ultimate security for Australia.

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Paddles B'mere said..
Faaark Main, let's spoon feed you .................................... what's going to be needed when the world booms on the other side of this mess ......................... resources for one!

I'm hardly going to get my financial advice off here !!

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Razzonater said..
It's still got a long way to drop, right now picking up shares you are catching the falling knife.
That being said there is a few that are at bargain basement pricing particularly blue chip shares.
distribute evenly if purchasing, some in gold shares some in banks and some in medical or food ie : westfarmers bhp anz

It is best if buying that you cost average if you are going to spend 5000 buy only 500 per week.

From China's time period it took around 8-10 weeks until they seen a drop in cases and control of virus so I would cost average over a period of ten weeks.

If you however wait another 4 before buying shares it is likely that you will get at least a 25% return on your investment in 12 months.

This is taking into account that we control the first wave and the second wave of the virus has not mutated in which case your ten weeks becomes 20-30 with your minimum 25% return taking 18-24 months to materialise

Personally I will be waiting another 3 weeks prior to starting to procure as it is guaranteed Western Australia and other states will go into lockdown, we have around 6-8 days before we hit 10000 cases in australia

It is only at this stage that our government will implement lockdown, those of you who played the crypto game with me, I suggest you reread above twice.

When the bounce happens their will be at least two dead cat bounces meaning you can play twice, or buy after the first at a higher cost average or wait for the second at a lower cost average but with a much smaller window to purchase and 0 to no opportunity to trade after for a profit in a 6 month window.

Thats it , get onboard or don't

Or a bear trap

^ Yep. Interesting...the market's dropped as much as '87 and the '29 crashes....so will it be a bear trap?

Stay tuned. Plenty of hungry bears here who think they smell fresh fish but more likely it's rotten.