Hey everyone,

I'm planning on making passage South from Coffs Harbour to Sydney.

The forecast tomorrow and across the weekend calls for Northerly winds 30kts sustained gusting to 40kts. Seas 2.5 - 3m and a period of 6 seconds, also following.

My question is with the wind (albeit stiff), seas and current all in the same direction, how uncomfortable is this likely to be or in your opinion does it verge on unsafe?

The alternatives are to wait a few days for wind to shift West for a beam reach, although remain strong and demand an upwind beat from the current into Sydney at the finale. My models show pitch and roll only increase if I wait.

The vessel is a 32ft, full length keel, heavy displacement Westsail 32.

Deliberating in Coffs Harbour with thanks,

Josh

There's 60 or so yachts headed north on Saturday from Sydney in the Gold Coast race. May want to wait till it's a little quieter and not so many headed at you.

Assume you have seen these specific W32 videos;





This fellow looks reasonably comfortable with goose winged yankee - but wind strength and current directions are unknown. Do you have such a sail to goose wing out?



I recall Maluka had a hard time running downwind in a Hobart as per here - 30ft full keeler. Needed more than one person on the tiller which is entirely understandable.

www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/sydney-to-hobart-maluka-of-kermandie-was-sailing-too-fast-for-own-good/news-story/cc1a8b7876df27635447b25575475157

With 40kts coming I would be concerned you could pitchpole but shouldn't unless you have too much sail up. So 2-3 reefs in main and no3 or storm jib goose winged. Of course issues with goose winging are if you Chinese gybe and dig the pole into the swell the mast could fail due to excessive compression loads from the pole. Do you have a sea anchor?

I would estimate reaching would be easier. How do your models concluded that pitch and roll would be more reaching? If you are broad reaching and corkscrewing up and over and across waves I can see this. But if you are beam reaching (true wind and swell directly on the beam) the pitch and roll should be less imho.

Good luck with the trip.

RE" My question is with the wind (albeit stiff), seas and current all in the same direction, how uncomfortable is this likely to be or in your opinion does it verge on unsafe?

how uncomfortable is this likely to be
It is likely to be uncomfortable, but fast.

does it verge on unsafe?
Yes. but, how safe (or unsafe) that will depend on the condition of the boat and the experience and size of the crew.

How many crew?
What is there offshore experience?
Have you ever sailed in the described conditions before?
The length of of watch time will allow the crew to recover and add some margin of safety.


RE: The vessel is a 32ft, full length keel, heavy displacement Westsail 32.

As always the boat needs to be well maintained and has a good working autopilot.
Have her undersailed as R13 has suggested should keep her manageable.
A strong warp and a car tyre to throw out the stern to slow down would be an easy to do safely factor.
Prepare and freeze meals before you head off or have meals that are easy to prep will take some strain off the crew.

Again, in those conditions it will be a fast sail.

gary

If you are asking it may mean you are not experienced - either with east coast sailing or with the NSW coast. So it is hard for anyone to advise you.

Going square with only half a rolled out genoa should be fine for any half decent seaworthy boat. It would certinaly be faster and easier for me than doing it on a "beam" reach day later. The problem is that a westerly often goes a little souwest too. This makes the whole thing a beat, especially the bit from Seal rocks to lake Macquarie. So for me I would head off tomorrow and have some pull in places - at Port Stephens and Newcastle if needed. Getting to Port Stephens is about 150 miles. As a total brag I have done it in daylight (from false dawn to tast of the twilight) in 15 hours but my boat can crank it on. If you can do 5 knots average it should take 30 hours and so leave tomorrow at 12pm when the northerly kicks in and reef for the night and then you should get to Port Stephens or Newcastle before midnight the next day.

All up to you.

I've sailed it a few times in those conditions and it was certainly fun. Had minimal sail up and was surprisingly manageable. About 25nm out with solid current. It was lively and did once sustain a bit of damage to the boom and main. Was 2 up doing 4 hr shifts and no autopilot so not much rest. Sailed an Olympic 40 and S&S 39 so probably a little easier than a 32ft full keel vessel and pretty quick. Having said that a stiff westerly close to shore would be a lot more fun and quick. You'll be pointing into it slightly, and the sea state gets steep and active surprisingly close to shore. There are plenty of places to tuck in if the wind turns southerly. Swell usually picks up after a westerly so keep an eye on things.

Do you have crew?
The limiting factor isn't normally the boat, its fatigue. Bigger seas burns lots of energy as your core muscles are constantly 'on'.
Hydration, food, rest.
I pushed too far one night single handing in fresh conditions until I had to lie down 'just for a few minutes' to rest an aching lower back. Fell asleep and woke up to alarms screaming, smoke in the cabin and hard aground on a sandbank with full sails up. I was runnning the engine to charge batteries at the time, when the boat went aground the heat exchanger inlet went dry, toasted the water pump and almost heat seized the engine.
That was a good lesson in the importance of fatigue management and not pushing yourself too hard.

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r13 said..
Assume you have seen these specific W32 videos;

This fellow looks reasonably comfortable with goose winged yankee - but wind strength and current directions are unknown. Do you have such a sail to goose wing out?

I recall Maluka had a hard time running downwind in a Hobart as per here - 30ft full keeler. Needed more than one person on the tiller which is entirely understandable.

www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/sydney-to-hobart-maluka-of-kermandie-was-sailing-too-fast-for-own-good/news-story/cc1a8b7876df27635447b25575475157

With 40kts coming I would be concerned you could pitchpole but shouldn't unless you have too much sail up. So 2-3 reefs in main and no3 or storm jib goose winged. Of course issues with goose winging are if you Chinese gybe and dig the pole into the swell the mast could fail due to excessive compression loads from the pole. Do you have a sea anchor?

I would estimate reaching would be easier. How do your models concluded that pitch and roll would be more reaching? If you are broad reaching and corkscrewing up and over and across waves I can see this. But if you are beam reaching (true wind and swell directly on the beam) the pitch and roll should be less imho.

Good luck with the trip.

Obviously 3rd video as above is a repeat of the first - apologies - try this

Another thing to consider is with a 3m swell some most of the bars along the way will be surf. I dare say pt Stephen's, broken bay maybe the only sensible harbours to seek refuge. Why not jump on the northerly and & wait a weather window in pt Stephen's ? It a very nice place to wait

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I'm planning on making passage South from Coffs Harbour to Sydney.

Ahh, another one leaving Coffs Harbour marina. There will be no boats left by the end of the year. I swear they are determined to send the marina broke.

Have you just bought the boat or had it for years? Those are serious conditions so you need a boat you can trust and know how it will go in those conditions.

The best advice I've had is 'there's never been a storm that didn't pass over'.

Meaning better to wait for better weather.

Hey all,

Appreciate the thoughtful replies and to hear your perspectives.

I'll be single handed this leg. Steering setup includes both a tiller pilot and windvane. Sea anchor ready if needed. Plenty of offshore miles behind me this is actually the final leg of a trip from the Caribbean to Sydney over the last 4yrs. My question stems because these southern systems and the East Australian Current are a different beast compared to trade wind sailing.

My main question wasn't so much whether the boat is prepared but more about how the sea state tends to behave when you've got strong wind, building swell, and powerful current all pushing the same way.

Curious how that typically feels - lively but orderly?

Does the current, wind and wave direction all in agreeance provide a "relative" flat sea state?

Plan is to run conservative under just the staysail.

Port Stephens is my bailout but based on the timing the strongest part of the system should have eased by then. Keen to avoid getting caught out by a westerly change around the time I'm trying to bear towards Sydney.

Not sure why the models show more pitch and roll in the later windows. Probably wind against current or a more confused sea state as the wind and swell shifts more west. Either way, the motion looked worse and not better.

Appreciate the input around fatigue. Passage planning suggests only 40hrs @ 6kt+ average which is manageable.

Thanks again, and fair winds to those heading north in the Gold Coast race a more formidable feat than mine.

Re the marina, I'm currently anchored inside the harbour and not in the marina (marina still looks busy).

Josh

Westsail 32

Josh,
If you haven't left Coffs yet STAY THERE TILL SUNDAY. No-one should be out to sea on the coast this Saturday!

From Sunday through to next weekend you will have sailable conditions all the way down to Sydney if you rush it,
otherwise you should be anchored up somewhere for the change next weekend.

The secrete to sailing the coast is, with westerly winds, have one foot on the beach, ie clearing any rocks etc.
With better conditions going south get out about 10nm to catch the southerly current, this can add up to 5 knots to your speed.

Day sailing to Sydney from Coffs = Port Macquarie = Forster or even Port Stephens = Lake Macquarie = Broken Bay/Pittwater = Sydney.

I am based at Camden Haven Inlet so sail this part of the coast.

Thanks nswsailor,

Yeah I've decided to stay put and wait for the next window.

Josh

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jdol said..
Thanks nswsailor,

Yeah I've decided to stay put and wait for the next window.

Josh

Hi Josh,
That sounds like an awesome trip!
Chilling for a bit seems logical, I'm not sure that you would have much current looking at the data. This looks like a pretty consistent pattern for the next few days at least.







The swell height and direction eases a fair bit from Sunday morning onwards (inshore that is), with the corresponding wavelength easing from 80m to 120mtrs. This is Sunday 10am onwards, prior to that it looks more look the offshore belt.






All the best with the last leg!

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jdol said..
Hey all,

Appreciate the thoughtful replies and to hear your perspectives.

I'll be single handed this leg. Steering setup includes both a tiller pilot and windvane. Sea anchor ready if needed. Plenty of offshore miles behind me this is actually the final leg of a trip from the Caribbean to Sydney over the last 4yrs. My question stems because these southern systems and the East Australian Current are a different beast compared to trade wind sailing.

My main question wasn't so much whether the boat is prepared but more about how the sea state tends to behave when you've got strong wind, building swell, and powerful current all pushing the same way.

Curious how that typically feels - lively but orderly?

Does the current, wind and wave direction all in agreeance provide a "relative" flat sea state?

Plan is to run conservative under just the staysail.

Port Stephens is my bailout but based on the timing the strongest part of the system should have eased by then. Keen to avoid getting caught out by a westerly change around the time I'm trying to bear towards Sydney.

Not sure why the models show more pitch and roll in the later windows. Probably wind against current or a more confused sea state as the wind and swell shifts more west. Either way, the motion looked worse and not better.

Appreciate the input around fatigue. Passage planning suggests only 40hrs @ 6kt+ average which is manageable.

Thanks again, and fair winds to those heading north in the Gold Coast race a more formidable feat than mine.

Re the marina, I'm currently anchored inside the harbour and not in the marina (marina still looks busy).

Josh

Westsail 32

Expect it will be very lively, very unorderly and very unflat. So good that you have delayed. Don't want to make a meal of it but the east coast wind / swell / current conditions take a lot of managing in a breeze.

In an early 80s Hobart steering a Farr 11.6 hard downwind (the Hobart Scallywag the cold moulded Farr centre boarder one tonner won in a downwind picnic race 3am finish her and us after nervous light run up the Derwent) I broached with a very bad lack of concentration with big kite, full main in only ~20kts. Rightly got a growl from the skipper. Next day with it ~25kts and no2 kite and 1 reef in the main I wasn't going to repeat that and hit 18kts after catching 2 waves. The classic "find a hole in the ocean and head for it as long as you don't broach or chinese gybe" - we found many holes and easily beat the 4-5 other 11.6's into Hobart.

2 years earlier in the boats first Hobart we sailed upwind down the Tassie coast against 25kts and got smashed with wind against current - we learnt a lot that day and night - sailing upwind into square waves is no fun.............Diamond Cutter the Davidson 3/4 tonner was brilliantly sailed and dressed (jib and main balanced and set properly) and walked all over us to our chagrin.

I have done it in 30 knots north north east to beat a cold front coming the other way. Left around 11pm from gold coast seaway, Stopped at coffs and waited out the South blow. Dawn surfing off cape byron is something I will always remember.

Fully crewed first 40. I was not the skipper.
A hell of a lot of fun but we did damage the boom slightly.

We had someone hand steering the whole time and I don't know how the autopilot would have liked it.

FYI the sea state was not too bad. Long walls of short period swell.

Edit : it was a few years ago I cant quite remember the top speed but I think we hit 14ish knots..

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PhilY said..
There's 60 or so yachts headed north on Saturday from Sydney in the Gold Coast race. May want to wait till it's a little quieter and not so many headed at you.

Top video and commentary on the start today - unusual breeze for late July.................

goldcoast.cycaracing.com/news/2025/day-1/video-start-replay-2025-noakes-sydney-gold-coast-yacht-race/