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JonE said..
So as a synopsis, what we learn from your posts is that the only way to check your keel's attachment is to remove it and re-attach.
This seems totally reasonable and I for one am seriously considering doing this to my 30 year old boat before I do anything serious with it.
What bothers me though - when I consider the outworking of this - is that whilst evidently the current keel inspections are useless, if you mandated keel-off checks at even 10 years, you wouldn't have prevented any of the high profile keel-loss incidents of recent years. All the ones I can think of either had modified keels (so new bolts surely), or the boats themselves were less than 10 years old.
Do you think we're going to see keels coming off these old boats over the next 10 years?
Keels fall off for other reasons
the recent loss, the keel flange and all bolts were still attached to the hull and in good order.
Of course keel loss may not occur but the boat still sink because of uncontrollable water egress though keel bolt holes when the keel has moved as bolts have broken.
There is some evidence that a sinking in an Australian race a few years back was caused in this way. all seacocks and hatches closed and no evidence of a breach of the hull skin yet water flooding in so that source could not be isolated.
As to the last part a lot will depend on use, but yes.
Bash upwind a good sea for 50 miles and see what you think.
The high profile losses have generally been VLCG keels but every time I read about a boat sinking and the point of water ingress could not be found I think keels bolts or keel movement now.
So that is different issue to a keel fin breaking off but no less problematic.