I see that people in Qld have been told to reduce their power usage tonight as there are threats of blackout and not enough energy.

How does that happen in a 1st world country?

Bloody lefties! It must be that new government!

NSW too. The power shortages are due to not enough investment in renewable energy generation according to the government.

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Mobydisc said..
NSW too. The power shortages are due to not enough investment in renewable energy generation according to the government.

That sounds sort of crazy doesn't it. We do fine on 'coal' all this time and now we are in a push for renewables, no one wants to provide coal power generation, so we then need more renewables which we don't yet have?

Call me a cynic, but I think coal will be around for a while yet, but it sounds like the market doesn't agree.

Several years ago there was an explosion at a WA gas facility, I think it was Veranus island?

Anyways there was massive gas shortages and many businesses had to shut their doors due to rationing. In the mean time a mothballed coal fired station (Muja) was brought back on line, from memory it took 6 weeks to start the old girl up.

To this day the old girl is ticking over, just in case I suspect.

But I don't know who was in power at the time, the left or the center left?

Somewhere in that there is a moral to the story.

I hope the blackouts last a week or more. There are a lot of people who need a reality check. Bring it on.

So what is the actual problem? Is it that renewbles are so cheap, when they are available (i.e. sun is shining) that coal cannot compete with that, yet when there is no sun coal is the only cheap option. But without the demand during the day, coal overall costs more so no one wants to produce the energy?

You would hope all this 'free market' would make daylight/'sun is shinging' energy almost free, but I guess the energy from the coal generation has to be used somewhere at that time too, so what happens?

It sounds like we are not ready for changing to renewables as fast as we thought we were.

Simple, ageing coal powered generators, a lot shut down for maintenance and they can make a lot of money out of using gas to make power. Coupled with a war and no real investment into the poles n wire networks to work with renewables. Perfect storm that's been coming for years.

demand higher than supply?
aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem

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FormulaNova said..
So what is the actual problem?

It goes back to global warming. The sheeples in Queensland don't own woolen jumpers any more, so a cool night can't be dealt with.
That plus the fact that Callide power station (the newest one in the country, planned to run till almost 2050) had a generator fire last year and isn't expected back on line until April 2023

Where in the world have renewables(unreliables) made energy cheaper?
Germany , California ?not happening.
The problem is they need back up of the same generation or storage capacity which involves dollars.

www.hanswernersinn.de/en/germanys-energy-fiasco-ps-28032022

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kk said..
Several years ago there was an explosion at a WA gas facility, I think it was Veranus island?

Anyways there was massive gas shortages and many businesses had to shut their doors due to rationing. In the mean time a mothballed coal fired station (Muja) was brought back on line, from memory it took 6 weeks to start the old girl up.

To this day the old girl is ticking over, just in case I suspect.

But I don't know who was in power at the time, the left or the center left?

Somewhere in that there is a moral to the story.

I think Collie (where Muja is close to) gets told its going to have the power stations closed down every couple of years, and then they keep them going again. Whether its change of government or change of policy I don't know.

You would hope the answer is having a coal fired plant that can ramp up and ramp down to cope with demand and the availability of renewables, but I am guessing that these plants can't be changed in output easily.

It seems like everyone has got onto gas-fired plants as the answer to renewables being erratic/sporadic. Without a backup source, are renewables 'cheap'?

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kato said..
Simple, ageing coal powered generators, a lot shut down for maintenance and they can make a lot of money out of using gas to make power. Coupled with a war and no real investment into the poles n wire networks to work with renewables. Perfect storm that's been coming for years.

Yeah, I was reading something on this. 3 out of 4 'down for maintenance' at the same time... sounds dodgy to me, and someone is making money somewhere.

In NSW a few years ago there was a huge drama about how they were 'gold plating' the electricity network, ready to sell it off and make money out of it (for the government of the day, not the people), so at least parts of it should be in good condition.

Maybe we should all only use stuff on bright sunny days?

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FormulaNova said.. I think Collie (where Muja is close to) gets told its going to have the power stations closed down every couple of years, and then they keep them going again. Whether its change of government or change of policy I don't know.

You would hope the answer is having a coal fired plant that can ramp up and ramp down to cope with demand and the availability of renewables, but I am guessing that these plants can't be changed in output easily.

It seems like everyone has got onto gas-fired plants as the answer to renewables being erratic/sporadic. Without a backup source, are renewables 'cheap'?

Unsurprisingly. Have you been to Collie? I dare you to go in their pub and tell those folks the coal mine will shut.

As to gas - if we stop giving it to China at not much more than cost, we could manage real good.

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Mark _australia said..

FormulaNova said.. I think Collie (where Muja is close to) gets told its going to have the power stations closed down every couple of years, and then they keep them going again. Whether its change of government or change of policy I don't know.

You would hope the answer is having a coal fired plant that can ramp up and ramp down to cope with demand and the availability of renewables, but I am guessing that these plants can't be changed in output easily.

It seems like everyone has got onto gas-fired plants as the answer to renewables being erratic/sporadic. Without a backup source, are renewables 'cheap'?

Unsurprisingly. Have you been to Collie? I dare you to go in their pub and tell those folks the coal mine will shut.

As to gas - if we stop giving it to China at not much more than cost, we could manage real good.

I live part-time in Collie. It's not a bad little town, and from what I have read, a lot of the locals have been seeking work elsewhere as the uncertainty about the future of the mine and powerstations makes them wary.

For a town with its own power stations nearby, they love their wood heaters! Smoke, like only a country town can.

About the 'gas thing'. How does that work. I remember reading somewhere that we are selling gas, already liquified, cheaper than what we can supply domestically. Is it all about volume? Is it to get a guaranteed market and then worry about the locals if we have spare gas?

I guess the comment about Germany and their renewables approach has shown us all that relying on gas for short-term power is fine, unless you are getting it from somewhere having a war, or in our case, are selling it to everyone else.

Maybe stop trying to please Greta.

It was a simply equation in QLD last night. Not enough coal and gas output and it was dark and no wind.

It doesn't matter how much solar and wind you poured billions of taxpayers dollars into, they were not outputting anything.

It was made worse because AEMO put a price cap on what they could charge so the gas guys said, nope. Was eventually resolved by emergency powers that allowed the gas guys to produce at cost. (no profit).

We need dispatchable power. If you don't invest in it then the lights go out. The global energy crisis is a thing simply because no one has been incentivised to invest in gas or coal supply to meet demand over the last 10-15 years. (mainly gas). In fact there has been active discouragement by governments and the big global financiers. The underlying cause has nothing to do with a war, that is just an amplifier.

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FormulaNova said..

About the 'gas thing'. How does that work. I remember reading somewhere that we are selling gas, already liquified, cheaper than what we can supply domestically. Is it all about volume? Is it to get a guaranteed market and then worry about the locals if we have spare gas?

Pretty much. To secure the necessary billions to finance gas field development you need to have a significant amount of presold production. ie guaranteed market at a fixed price. The level it is sold at is whatever you can secure at the time of predevelopment. ie provided you make money everyone is happy.

People like to look back at prices set 10+ years ago to what current costs are and complain, but it doesn't work like that. Fixed purchase costs over big time frames allow downstream industries to also invest in industries that rely on the gas. Everyone benefits, but if you don't secure gas now for the future then you are stuck with spot prices.

Notably it was the Gillard Gov that rejected the recommendation for a domestic gas supply on the east coast developments 12 or so yars ago.

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FormulaNova said..

About the 'gas thing'. How does that work. I remember reading somewhere that we are selling gas, already liquified, cheaper than what we can supply domestically. Is it all about volume? Is it to get a guaranteed market and then worry about the locals if we have spare gas?

as above, LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) requires significant investment to develop the field and build the infrastructure (wells, pipelines, gas plant, storage tanks, marine terminal etc) and there are long term supply contracts in place with customers who buy LNG: 10 - 25 year duration.
Those contracts will of course have an agreed price, which could be linked to global gas price or price of oil etc, I am not sure of the exact details and I am not sure if local gas price (Australian domestic market) is also a factor.
Lot of LNG developments in Australia are Joint Ventures and customers are often one of the Joint Venture partners (investors) in the project and I would imagine they get a "better deal" on the LNG they buy simply because they took the risk and invested in the development.

so I can see where local market changes can result in gas on local market being more expensive than what's sold on long term contracts. (not to be confused with LNG spot market cost, which is different).

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gs12 said..

FormulaNova said..

About the 'gas thing'. How does that work. I remember reading somewhere that we are selling gas, already liquified, cheaper than what we can supply domestically. Is it all about volume? Is it to get a guaranteed market and then worry about the locals if we have spare gas?

as above, LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) requires significant investment to develop the field and build the infrastructure (wells, pipelines, gas plant, storage tanks, marine terminal etc) and there are long term supply contracts in place with customers who buy LNG: 10 - 25 year duration.
Those contracts will of course have an agreed price, which could be linked to global gas price or price of oil etc, I am not sure of the exact details and I am not sure if local gas price (Australian domestic market) is also a factor.
Lot of LNG developments in Australia are Joint Ventures and customers are often one of the Joint Venture partners (investors) in the project and I would imagine they get a "better deal" on the LNG they buy simply because they took the risk and invested in the development.

so I can see where local market changes can result in gas on local market being more expensive than what's sold on long term contracts. (not to be confused with LNG spot market cost, which is different).

What is obvious:
- Australia is the biggest producer of LNG in whole world
-Australia in not being paid for exported gas at all ( smart accounting of overseas investors)
.-Australia don't have even enough gas for own population, at the time when is the biggest gas producer in the world !

so since there is now way that we could withdraw from those harmful to long term contracts, maybe there is something we could do?

We can not nationalize suddenly our resources as Venezuela did. Obviously instant sanctions wil kill us all.

But maybe we could use the same market economy to fight back?

Since the companies that are stealing our natural resources for free are publicly listed
companies on stock exchange,
maybe we could simply buy them all ?
At fair market price, paid by each share?

Buy Chevron ?


Ok 344bln. We will not be able to buy submarines from US , but at least we could buy our gas back from them
Then in 6 years we will have all our money back !! 52 bln at old gas prices !!

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FormulaNova said..
So what is the actual problem? Is it that renewables are so cheap, when they are available (i.e. sun is shining) that coal cannot compete with that, yet when there is no sun coal is the only cheap option. But without the demand during the day, coal overall costs more so no one wants to produce the energy?

You're the private owner of a coal-fired power station and you know its days are numbered. Do you take it out of service for periodic maintenance? Nope, that would be costly and you'd be losing revenue at the same time. Instead, you run it into the ground, squeezing every last dollar out of it, only making minimal running repairs as necessary. Unfortunately, a few of these repairs are happening at the same time lately. The coincident cold weather and some 'interesting' bidding behaviour by the remaining generators in a constrained market give us the outcome we've seen this week.

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FormulaNova said..
You would hope all this 'free market' would make daylight/'sun is shinging' energy almost free, but I guess the energy from the coal generation has to be used somewhere at that time too, so what happens?.

As the owner of the coal-fired generator you have two choices:

A-Generate power at a loss on sunny days by out-biding renewables that have zero fuel cost.
B-Switch the plant off during the day, which places huge stresses on the plant as it cools down and then heats up again when you turn it on in the evening. It also costs a bomb to relight the boiler as a dozen firehoses spray oil into a 10-storey high furnace, while ID and FD fans rated at several MW each (that's some big-ass fans!) try to blow enough air into the boiler for the pulverised coal to catch fire. (Yes, this is an awesome sight!)

As the owner of a renewables plant, you can't sell your power for free because you have to provide a return to your financiers. The sun might be free, but someone just put up a couple hundred million dollars to build that solar/wind farm in the first place.

Also, you're only seeing the spot price. Much of the energy is bought and sold on PPA's (power purchase agreements) that are settled outside of the spot market. The solar farm got financed due to having PPA's in place right from the start to purchase most of the power it generates. So, although the spot price in the market might be $300/MWh on a particular day, the actual price being paid by your retailer is more likely to be something like $60 or $80/MWh.

Where the spot price really matters is for the peaking plant that 'tops up' the power system on the really high demand days (or nights). This is where some 'creative' bidding behaviour takes place and serious cash gets made.

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FormulaNova said..
You would hope the answer is having a coal fired plant that can ramp up and ramp down to cope with demand and the availability of renewables, but I am guessing that these plants can't be changed in output easily.

Some coal plant is okay at it. Gas and hydro are good at it. Batteries are freaking awesome at it. When the Tesla grid battery got installed in South Australia, the system frequency graph turned into a pancake....dead flat, steady as a rock.

Interesting most of our wind farms were shut off or reduced on the weekend because there was too much power in the network. No way to store it ATM. It was a great weekend for wind

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Harrow said..

FormulaNova said..
So what is the actual problem? Is it that renewables are so cheap, when they are available (i.e. sun is shining) that coal cannot compete with that, yet when there is no sun coal is the only cheap option. But without the demand during the day, coal overall costs more so no one wants to produce the energy?

You're the private owner of a coal-fired power station and you know its days are numbered. Do you take it out of service for periodic maintenance? Nope, that would be costly and you'd be losing revenue at the same time. Instead, you run it into the ground, squeezing every last dollar out of it, only making minimal running repairs as necessary. Unfortunately, a few of these repairs are happening at the same time lately. The coincident cold weather and some 'interesting' bidding behaviour by the remaining generators in a constrained market give us the outcome we've seen this week.

FormulaNova said..
You would hope all this 'free market' would make daylight/'sun is shinging' energy almost free, but I guess the energy from the coal generation has to be used somewhere at that time too, so what happens?.

As the owner of the coal-fired generator you have two choices:

A-Generate power at a loss on sunny days by out-biding renewables that have zero fuel cost.
B-Switch the plant off during the day, which places huge stresses on the plant as it cools down and then heats up again when you turn it on in the evening. It also costs a bomb to relight the boiler as a dozen firehoses pump oil into a 10-storey high furnace, while ID and FD fans rated at several MW each (that's some big-ass fans!) try to blow enough air into the boiler for the pulverised coal to catch fire. (Yes, this is an awesome sight!)

As the owner of a renewables plant, you can't sell your power for free because you have to provide a return to your financiers. The sun might be free, but someone just put up a couple hundred million dollars to build that solar/wind farm in the first place.

Also, you're only seeing the spot price. Much of the energy is bought and sold on PPA's (power purchase agreements) that are settled outside of the spot market. The solar farm got financed due to having PPA's in place right from the start to purchase most of the power it generates. So, although the spot price in the market might be $300/MWh on a particular day, the actual price being paid by your retailer is more likely to be something like $60 or $80/MWh.

Where the spot price really matters is for the peaking plant that 'tops up' the power system on the really high demand days (or nights). This is where some 'creative' bidding behaviour takes place and serious cash gets made.

FormulaNova said..
You would hope the answer is having a coal fired plant that can ramp up and ramp down to cope with demand and the availability of renewables, but I am guessing that these plants can't be changed in output easily.

Some coal plant is okay at it. Gas and hydro are good at it. Batteries are freaking awesome at it. When the Tesla grid battery got installed in South Australia, the system frequency graph turned into a pancake....dead flat, steady as a rock.

Well said and spot on

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kato said..
Interesting most of our wind farms were shut off or reduced on the weekend because there was too much power in the network. No way to store it ATM. It was a great weekend for wind

yep, somebody should invent something to store that wind.
When is plenty , or too much store it
and release when needed

Actually is already proven that wind resources could be depleted !

Large wind farms are able to effect wind distribution and turbines needs to be placed at large distance to each other.

Theoretically in the middle day , when solar panels produce too much energy to the grid, so negative feedback tariff is employed/
One day we could use this excess to power wind turbines to make wind !

^^^^
I wonder if gliders get an updraft from a solar farm

Shut off all coal powered generators now, shut down and learn to live with whats renewable......... or die.
Bring it on.
I think many here would be dead in a week.

So now WA is going to phase out all guvment owned coal power stations and spend a **** tonne on wind power.

They will also encourage others to build storage especially pumped Hydro.

To me the goverment should be investing in the storage, I mean they can start by storing the off peak coal power when the sun is shining.

Is it really all just about politics and keeping the tree huggers happy or am I missing something?

If only there was a reliable emmisions free form of energy that could be available 24hrs a day .

Peak power demand is 7am and 7pm.... when the suns not shining... wind isn't always on, and Snowy 2.0 was recently annouced as being 18months behind schedule and will likely continuing to fall further behind schedule and no doubt over budget.

Lack of energy policy and long term vision means that companies cutting operational/maintenance budgets for fossil fuel plants with uncertain futures = unreliable power. Remember those same powerplants had been "reliably" making power for decades prior to current events. Easy place to point the finger, but ultimately a red herring.

Considering that at 7pm last night, wind and solar were making <5% of the total power generation I'm not sure how renewables will really help things (building more solar panels doesn't make the sun shine brighter at 7pm). Hydro would definetly help, but do we have the natural resources for it? Nuclear would be great, but suffers from NIMBY, and tbh I think as a nation we are that bad at engineering and building stuff these days, that you could guarantee it would take 15 years and probably got 10x over budget. Doesn't paint a bright picture.

No doubt we need to move to cleaner & greener sources of energy, but sadly hard to hold hope when it doesn't really look like as a country (and maybe a planet), that we have the vision or leadership to acheive it.

My hope is with the proliferation of solar and EVs, we can charge our EV's during the day when its sunny, and then use those EV's as a massive distributed battery to supply us in the peak times. If every household in the future has 10kW of panels on the roof and a 80kWh mobile battery in the garage, I think it may work out. As it stands most electric cars $/kWh seem as cost effective, if not more so than home batteries... I guess economies of scale? A lot of infrastructure to make it happen, but relatively easy/small scale stuff that I reckon we wouldn't screw up as bad.

Will probably still need a backup plan for those long la nina months of non-stop rain. Just need the right funding strategy to make sure that the necessary evil that is a coal/fossil fuel power plant is appropriately maintained so that they are there when we need them.