Anything where a discounted benefit cost analysis showing a benefit cost ratio greater than 1.5 has actually been done (importantly,
including a price for carbon at $30 per tonne).
On that basis, this list (mostly roads) would probably change - see:
www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/infrastructure-priority-listProjects like rail would be more attractive/ sensible with a carbon price.
Take MetroNet to Ellenbrook in Perth, for example. Currently the assessment (
www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/metronet-morley-ellenbrook-line-project) states:
''The Morley-Ellenbrook Line would connect Ellenbrook to the Perth CBD through Bayswater Station, linking to the Midland and Forrestfield-Airport lines.
The proponent's estimated benefit-cost ratio (BCR) for the project is 1.1 with a net present value (NPV) of $208 million when using a 7% real discount rate.
The proponent has selected a heavy rail option, although the options assessment process found that a bus rapid transit option could deliver a slightly higher BCR. The proponent's preference for a rail solution is due to cost, scope, user preference and system capacity. In particular, the bus rapid transit option could reach capacity by 2026. Drawing on the evidence provided in the options assessment, Infrastructure Australia considers that a heavy rail solution may be required in the future to support longer term growth within the corridor...
Infrastructure Australia identified several areas in the project's economic analysis which may slightly overstate its benefits, including travel time value parameters not sufficiently supported by local evidence, and a high growth rate for long-term benefits.''
As it stands, with the carbon future excluded, the politics supporting MetroNet are clearly overriding the economics.