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Dom said..
Every company boardroom around the world will be having a conversation about moving factories and productions lines out of China. The next industrial revolution back to the west.

This....

India, Thailand, Vietnam will do well out of this.

So whats a wet market, is it where they sell live animals for consumption, every restaurant I went into in China was like underwater world full of fish tanks except everything was for sale to eat.

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cammd said..
So whats a wet market, is it where they sell live animals for consumption, every restaurant I went into in China was like underwater world full of fish tanks except everything was for sale to eat.

Sell, kill and chop up animals.

Blood all over the floor, animals kept in small cages awaiting death.

(I sound like a vegan)

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FormulaNova said..

What do you define as a 'truly bad virus'?

Something like Ebola is as bad as it gets, but it kills the host too quickly, so its spread is limited. Therefore that's not going to go far.

The flu? Its already established.

What is the most likely scenario? A disease that is able to spread without symptoms and then killing people two weeks later. Covid19 is not exactly that, but its close enough for some people.

I do agree with you though that at the very least this is a way to pre-empt these sorts of threats in the future.

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/covid-19-how-deadly-and-contagious-is-coronavirus/12068106

If you look at the graph on this page you will see the orange box where it was estimated a couple of weeks ago that COVID-19 sits. It is now becomong evident it sits along the bottom of the orange box somewhere, making it have a slightly higher reproductive number and slightly higher mortality rate than the typical flu, although the majority of that mortality is in the over 70 population. This is of course not good, but does make it easier to identify and assist the vulnerable population. Mortality rate for under 50's is less than the regluar flu.

This virus take 5 days present symptoms, but also does not start to shed until within 24hours of symptoms showing, so its not ideal, but its not so hard to trace contacts and track if we are quick enough.

Take SARS or MERS or god forbid Bird Flu or our very own Henda virus and shift them to the right and you have a serious problem.

We now have a good handle on this virus, a hospital system that is essentially shut down waiting for an influx that is not coming and a promising treatment. My view is that we should isolate the vulnerable and relax a lot of the restrictions to allow society to function again. Pretty soon the ramifications of the lockdowns are going to far outstrip the effects of the virus.

EDIT: Infectious disease expert Peter Colignon belives the R value of COVID 19 is 1.2 to 1.4, so that puts it at the lower end of the normal flu, well outside the orange box.

www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6707817/expert-pans-panic-decisions-that-dont-make-biological-sense/?fbclid=IwAR1sSp1Bf4IT-jE651djbTuCS8AkbFqBBcw2WOo7IND7WkGocHItwSLD_MQ

There might not be a "post" coronavirus at all. On ABC radio PM yesterday there was this interview
www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/epidemiologist-calls-for-transparency-in-public-health-policies/12111916
where (in the 2nd half) the professor puts the view that if the virus is suppressed too effectively, then restrictions have to go on much longer.
Once 60% or so of the population get the virus, transmission gets harder, so no epidemic, but what you have then is endemic disease, so it keeps right on infecting vulnerable people, just not so quickly.

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Mr Milk said..
There might not be a "post" coronavirus at all. On ABC radio PM yesterday there was this interview
www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/epidemiologist-calls-for-transparency-in-public-health-policies/12111916
where (in the 2nd half) the professor puts the view that if the virus is suppressed too effectively, then restrictions have to go on much longer.
Once 60% or so of the population get the virus, transmission gets harder, so no epidemic, but what you have then is endemic disease, so it keeps right on infecting vulnerable people, just not so quickly.

I would agree. I think the Gov has handled things reasonably well do date, but thier strat seems to have been to "flatten the curve". We have done that. Now what?? Whats the end game?

Flattening the curve isn't to "fix" things, its only to slow it down so our medical system can handle it. Flattening the curve is not a cure or remedy or will allow us to go out and play in a months time.
If curve goes up, that's when we end up with 900 a day dieing like USA, Spain etc.
ScoMo says minimum of 6 months of lock down at this stage of things.
I think the Gov. are doing a damn good job so far to stop us being like USA are atm

The professor pointed out that we might squash the curve too much. If only 10% of the community has been infected because the lock down has worked, the minute it gets relaxed the virus starts to go through everybody else.

Road closures will be in effect for months

common ducted aircon in city blocks and apartments will never happen again

hopefully sanitiser remains in place for all to use in public areas, train stations etc etc

China will be banned from playing with viruses in laboratories because they seem to escape far to regularly

Our Internet and social apps will be restricted monitored and limited

Draconian measures will stay in place long after the virus is gone.

Civil disobedience will increase as the duration of flattening the curve carries on.

We will have a civil war as we have not had one yet.

China will be accused of spreading the virus deliberately by putting "spies/agents" on planes who were infected with the disease deliberately to fly to Europe, America and other nations.

There are way to many videos of people spitting on food and elevator buttons and park benches and bus rails...... many of these people are of foreign origin......

People who call China out for starting a biological war will first be called racist than hailed as visionaries when it all comes out in the wash.

I feel very very sorry for how all the Australian Chinese are being treated at current, There is a lady I work with who is 50 and too scared to go to the shop as she keeps getting abused, loved in Australia for forty years , we are a disgusting nation

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FormulaNova said..
I think Corona the beer will have no problem and won't change its name. Its a common word, and if nothing it will be in people's minds for a long time to come.

It's already been officially stated that the Corona name will have permanent negative connotations, so they are changing it to Ebola.

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lotofwind said..
Flattening the curve isn't to "fix" things, its only to slow it down so our medical system can handle it. Flattening the curve is not a cure or remedy or will allow us to go out and play in a months time.
If curve goes up, that's when we end up with 900 a day dieing like USA, Spain etc.
ScoMo says minimum of 6 months of lock down at this stage of things.
I think the Gov. are doing a damn good job so far to stop us being like USA are atm

I get that, and I agree measures to slow the spread are important. But what is the balance. A 6 month lock down is a disaster on its own.

People mention the death rates in the US and Italy etc. So far they have had 5000, and 13,000 respectively. Italy's deaths are now dropping off, it should end up les than double that. But bear in mind both countries respectively have 50,000 and 25,000 deaths annually from the normal flu anyway. We are not looking at abnormal numbers and if you keep the over 70's in isolation the numbers are very small.

My point is that yes, this is not a good virus, we needed to slow it down to buy time to prepare and respond. We have done that, now what?

Our chances of eliminating it any time soon are practically zero. Our hospitals are ready, the population know knows what social distancing is and how to do it. We know who the vulerable sections of our society are, we have drugs to treat the virus being proven up and we know those under 60 have a very small relative risk from it.

Lets let those that are vulnerable stay in self isolation and spend whatever is need to keep them safe and healthy and let those under 60ys get back to work (while still keeping some things in place to slow the transmission).

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Paradox said..
Lets let those that are vulnerable stay in self isolation and spend whatever is need to keep them safe and healthy and let those under 60ys get back to work (while still keeping some things in place to slow the transmission).

We could prioritise anti-body testing and identify all those that have unknowingly been exposed, recovered and are now immune so they can be released from isolation to get back to a normal state ASAP. Maybe there'll be a bright collar or wristband that you wear to show you are a 'safe' person.

It will be a world like The Hunger Games.
With footy smashed, the states will representatives to Camberra to fight in a setting around lake BG.

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lotofwind said..
Flattening the curve isn't to "fix" things, its only to slow it down so our medical system can handle it. Flattening the curve is not a cure or remedy or will allow us to go out and play in a months time.
If curve goes up, that's when we end up with 900 a day dieing like USA, Spain etc.
ScoMo says minimum of 6 months of lock down at this stage of things.
I think the Gov. are doing a damn good job so far to stop us being like USA are atm

Just do some rough sums and you'll see how crazy this is going to be. Even if you assume only 30% of the Aussie population gets it, and you allow for 10,000 new infections every single day, that would still take 2 years That means we are probably in this until the vaccine is available, so the 6-month minimum lockdown is probably looking realistic. Geez.

Then what if there is another virus, a year or two later? We start all over again, or would we then have a new international protocol. I'm guessing instant global border closures to isolate the virus, and automatic lockdown anywhere it is detected to eradicate. There won't be any more stuffing around or pussyfooting. Or we just give up, carry on as normal and send the cart around...."bring out yer dead".

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Paradox said..
People mention the death rates in the US and Italy etc. So far they have had 5000, and 13,000 respectively. Italy's deaths are now dropping off, ... But bear in mind both countries respectively have 50,000 and 25,000 deaths annually from the normal flu anyway.

They are the numbers *with* an unprecedented lockdown. Imagine the numbers without.

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Harrow said..
That means we are probably in this until the vaccine is available

The vaccine won't be 100% effective. Like the flu vaccines we have now are not 100% effective.

This is SARS-CoV-2. How is the vaccine for SARS-CoV-1 working out? Or AIDS? We've had a while for that vaccine now.

President Trump saying the best case scenario atm is 100 000 to 200 000 deaths in the USA.
He has changed his tune from last week saying the USA will be business as usual in time for easter lol.

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evlPanda said..

Harrow said..
That means we are probably in this until the vaccine is available

The vaccine won't be 100% effective. Like the flu vaccines we have now are not 100% effective.

This is SARS-CoV-2. How is the vaccine for SARS-CoV-1 working out? Or AIDS? We've had a while for that vaccine now.

Isnt the lack of effectiveness of the flu vaccine because it sometimes gets the wrong variant of the flu virus? I.e. before they make it, they concentrate on what they think are going to be the dominant strains of the flu and then target those. If one is not in this category, it can go unchecked.

In this case, people are actively targeting what we know is one virus. Or is it 2? 4? Is it 8? It can't be more than 16 surely?

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lotofwind said..
President Trump saying the best case scenario atm is 100 000 to 200 000 deaths in the USA.
He has changed his tune from last week saying the USA will be business as usual in time for easter lol.

Yeah, he is not doing well is he. Before this, he could get by on the intent of his changes, but now he is shown to have no idea and the results are going to speak for themselves.

Batman will never be seen the same way again

Tin foil hatters say China did it on purpose .
Im not so sure .
Everything made in Chine has a sour taste now .
I think Aussies , for a while , may look at other than made in China options .
Unfortunately things will be so crap that we can only afford Chinese stuff .
Maybee I need a tin hat

Chinese invasion starting , .....all going to plan

www.realestate.com.au/news/coronavirus-to-drive-more-australian-homes-into-foreign-hands/?rsf=syn:news:nca:news:spa

real estate agents selling out Australia ...

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bazz61 said..
Chinese invasion starting , .....all going to plan

www.realestate.com.au/news/coronavirus-to-drive-more-australian-homes-into-foreign-hands/?rsf=syn:news:nca:news:spa

real estate agents selling out Australia ...

That reminds the tactics whites used to conquer the Americas and Australia too. They spread biological weapons to decimate the native population. Smallpox was brought in a glass jar on purpose not by accident to decimate 90% of the population. The crew on such a long journey can not survive while carrying the infection.
www.livescience.com/13694-devastating-infectious-diseases-smallpox-plague.html

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Macroscien said..

bazz61 said..
Chinese invasion starting , .....all going to plan

www.realestate.com.au/news/coronavirus-to-drive-more-australian-homes-into-foreign-hands/?rsf=syn:news:nca:news:spa

real estate agents selling out Australia ...

That reminds the tactics whites used to conquer the Americas and Australia too. They spread biological weapons to decimate the native population. Smallpox was brought in a glass jar on purpose not by accident to decimate 90% of the population. The crew on such a long journey can not survive while carrying the infection.
www.livescience.com/13694-devastating-infectious-diseases-smallpox-plague.html

Have you got any links to this use of smallpox in this way? I had always assumed that it was one of those things that happened by accident in that people were generally infected and this was passed onto the local population.

Did they even understand diseases well back then? How do you contain it for that long in a jar? I am not even sure that they would have known about immunity and had the expectation that the natives weren't. It seems like a bit of a leap, but I am happy to be proven wrong. Stranger things have happened.

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lotofwind said..
President Trump saying the best case scenario atm is 100 000 to 200 000 deaths in the USA.
He has changed his tune from last week saying the USA will be business as usual in time for easter lol.

Depends on the perspective I guess. 200,000 deaths is 7% of the annual mortality rate of the US.

It's not good, but it's not exactly a game changer either. Context is king.

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FormulaNova said..

Macroscien said..

bazz61 said..
Chinese invasion starting , .....all going to plan

www.realestate.com.au/news/coronavirus-to-drive-more-australian-homes-into-foreign-hands/?rsf=syn:news:nca:news:spa

real estate agents selling out Australia ...

That reminds the tactics whites used to conquer the Americas and Australia too. They spread biological weapons to decimate the native population. Smallpox was brought in a glass jar on purpose not by accident to decimate 90% of the population. The crew on such a long journey can not survive while carrying the infection.
www.livescience.com/13694-devastating-infectious-diseases-smallpox-plague.html

Have you got any links to this use of smallpox in this way? I had always assumed that it was one of those things that happened by accident in that people were generally infected and this was passed onto the local population.

Did they even understand diseases well back then? How do you contain it for that long in a jar? I am not even sure that they would have known about immunity and had the expectation that the natives weren't. It seems like a bit of a leap, but I am happy to be proven wrong. Stranger things have happened.

You may not know, but people hundred years ago understand this well. Anyway biological weapons had been used for thousands not hundred years already> Infected bodies throwed over protective walls.As to smallpox case- this information was officially broadcasted on ABC radio few days back. Sad but true.

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Paradox said..

lotofwind said..
President Trump saying the best case scenario atm is 100 000 to 200 000 deaths in the USA.
He has changed his tune from last week saying the USA will be business as usual in time for easter lol.

Depends on the perspective I guess. 200,000 deaths is of 7% of the annual mortality rate of the US.

It's not good, but it's not exactly a game changer either. Context is king.

I wish to see incoming statistics of gunshot victims in the US over the year 2020. If damage to the population by the virus to population is moderate, or even light. Catastrophe to the global economy is tremendous. But that worse of all could be social unrest that will come....
I am sure that military officials around the world already thinking how to score some battles and wins, topple opponents, gain some grounds. Eventually, for them any military conflict is more predictable than an ongoing pandemic crisis. Neutron bomb to sterilize a country is easier to implement then breathing masks and breathing apparatus.

www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting


I US nobody steals a paper toilet from you as long as you have last bullet!

What will change? Absolutely nothing. Some of you woukd do well to study some actual history, especially from a banking (credit creation), land, resource and capital perspective. Then you may not be influenced by the current noise of conspiracy theories and the rest of the information garbage. Or stay dumb sounding clever with your bar stool dinner party conversation bollocks.

christ the more I read the more I realise why those with money/ power set things up like they do. Most of us are intolerably stupid to the very core or our peasant, gun fodder beings.

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Underoath said..

Dom said..
Every company boardroom around the world will be having a conversation about moving factories and productions lines out of China. The next industrial revolution back to the west.

This....

India, Thailand, Vietnam will do well out of this.

The AU$ has fallen against all of those currencies Underoath ................... we are now a low cost centre ............... we are the India, Thailand, Vietnam of a couple of years ago, especially if you factor in a real wage drop due to an oversupply of labour.

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Paddles B'mere said..
The AU$ has fallen against all of those currencies Underoath ................... we are now a low cost centre ............... we are the India, Thailand, Vietnam of a couple of years ago, especially if you factor in a real wage drop due to an oversupply of labour.

No surprise when the only thing half the nation does is make coffee for one another. We used to make coffee ourselves at home in the morning, or at the Cafe Bar at work, but now it's half the GDP. Surely that has to translate directly to a drop in the value of the Aussie dollar.