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AUS1111 said..
The thing about booms and busts is that they are innately unpredictable because neither the timing nor the severity is knowable. The answer does not lie in the data - booms and busts are not financial events, they are psychological events.
Oh boy ... I will try again I suppose ...
Is that right? I'd say they are entirely predictable and are financial as wells as psychological.
When you commoditise land price by allowing the appreciation of this land to be traded privately then there will be a boom and bust as the sun will rise and fall. It just has to happen.
The economic rent (the speculative profit above the intrinsic value) derived from private ownership of land is the mother of all government granted (by law) vehicles.(and they will go to war if need be to protect this).
Let me keep it simple for you... because it is.
You own land and then infrastructure is built up around it... hospitals, schools, train lines etc etc.
who pays for this ?
Taxpayers....
who gains from this via the land value that will rise.
The owner.
So the private owner makes money off the the dollars spent by the public purse....
What would an intelligent owner do with this equity generated... by more land.
Now consider this scenario for larger scale property developers, cattle station owners, industrial land owners and developers.
So borrowing on further speculation (due to human psychology) will continue (and infact amplify) until the economy cannot support the price being asked. Last sucker is left holding the hot potato.
Then land value drops below the lending against it, banks balance sheet becomes increasingly unhealthy and the credit crack we've become addicted to dries up.
Then who bails out the big big banks who lent this money (even after they have foreclosed, repossessed the titles )?
Thats right the taxpayers again.
There is nothing to be gained by this private land ownership for the country and community as a whole. Land should be leased and the gains payed as a land tax to the people and distributed back to the people - Singapore do it through a sovereign fund, each citizen receives a yearly income.... oh and by the way they are nearly the wealthiest country (and should be by 2050 per capita) and they have less land than anyone. Go stick that up your arguments for private ownership.
No one should be allowed to own land nor gain from its increased value. Citizens should be able to lease then generate income from it by using it for productive purposes. Gains in the land should be taxed away. Our Canberra forefathers knew this when they initially created Canberra.
This would also eliminate most government needed taxes and hence most of the government.
Then we could participate with true capatalism, not this shonky distorted system we work in that just rewards those with government granted licenses. It's is entirely corrupted and severely broken. If you can't see this then you must be more deluded than anyone could imagine. Or just truly uneducated. Or worse... highly educated in the witch doctor PhD economic models they spew out. Smoke, mirrors and bull****. It truly is very simple.
....but alas we are not about the country but about our greedy little selves in the end. Human psychology 101 what's in it for me.
oh and then the stock market goes... not before... it's an effect not a cause.
Banks go south because of speculative land lending practises and the lack of credit squeezes markets ... and they correct.... and like a tick tock clock, they eventually crash. Next ones gonna be a corka!!!
So it's both financial (structural) and psychological.
Ho hum I can only try ....