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bazz61 said..

Tequila ! said..

FormulaNova said..

bazz61 said..
The east coast housing has now become unaffordable for the average blue collar , in WA you have massive industry with real paying wages , this makes WA desirable for many , I enjoyed my last stint in WA , spent all summer at MR exploring fishing and some small wave surfing (MAL) a few years ago .

The unaffordability problem is a result of poor government policy. It doesn't need to be this way. Plenty of other countries don't have this problem, so why do we have it?

If WA was so good, or better than anywhere else in Aus, why did you leave it? Like anywhere it goes through boom and bust periods. The huge downside is it seems to be built on the basis of one major industry. When it does well, people are happy and have money to spend. When it goes into the bust cycle people have no money and there are not enough other industries to support them.

In Sydney and Melbourne you have a lot of industries that support people when things go quiet in one area. In Perth when mining bites the dust people are left standing around looking at themselves wondering where all the good money went to.

This...

And the last bust of 2014 - 2017 was savage, know many who left and will never come back after been driven to the wall here.
I was out of work for a long time, couldnt find anything to do.

The diversification in the economy didnt happen (got more concentrated actually).

So for those who come, make hay when the sun shines, because it can get ugly very quickly when turns the other way.

That was a construction boom , they all end , you stay or move with the times for work , or retrain , Pro Build has gone bust , how many that effects is anyone's guess , many will go to WA , interesting times .

Apparently there is an old Chinese curse, "may you live in interesting times", perhaps we'll get to see if it is true.

I bought my first houses (singular) with interest rates @ 17.5% interest, they were interesting times

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bazz61 said..

That was a construction boom , they all end , you stay or move with the times for work , or retrain , Pro Build has gone bust , how many that effects is anyone's guess , many will go to WA , interesting times .

I think the important part to note is that Perth does not have the diversity of industry and this shows when mining slumps. Does this mean that people need to be able to move states each time this happens?

Of course not, but mining still seems to dominate the state. I can understand that it would be hard to get a lot of staff when mining pays so well when it is on, but its a self-perpetuating cycle if you don't modify it.

Retraining is a good idea, but if there is a lack of work, someone somewhere is going to find it impossible to get a job.

If Perth was more stable, maybe there would be lots more people there, as otherwise its a very livable city.

Why are you so positive about housing prices here? Savy investors look at the housing supply, prices, rents, and history.

Probably about 5 years ago a work colleague decided to buy a new house in Perth before selling his old one. People always say that this is a mistake, and in this case it took him over a year to sell it. I don't know what he sold it for, but if it took over a year it wouldn't have been great.

It does seem a reprehensible failing that there is no real pathway to transition WA to an economy that is not wholly dependent on the price foreigners pay for our raw resources. WA could be like Norway or by now with the money that has come in from oil & gas & mining, but looks like no effort to transition.

same time zone as Singapore and lots of SE Asia, could be a major hub for banking or something i'm sure.

but i don't think house prices going anywhere down anytime soon. There is no supply in central areas and building is a long pipeline.

Is this the point where everyone that can afford crazy prices has already bought?

www.realestate.com.au/news/sydney-home-prices-drop-for-first-time-in-17-months

"Sydney property prices have fallen for the first time in 17 months as the threat of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty sours homebuyer demand.
..."

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FormulaNova said..
Is this the point where everyone that can afford crazy prices has already bought?

www.realestate.com.au/news/sydney-home-prices-drop-for-first-time-in-17-months

"Sydney property prices have fallen for the first time in 17 months as the threat of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty sours homebuyer demand.
..."

I reckon you could be right. I think that the exodus from the cities hasn't ended yet. Maybe still a few months of growth in regional areas.

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FormulaNova said..

bazz61 said..

That was a construction boom , they all end , you stay or move with the times for work , or retrain , Pro Build has gone bust , how many that effects is anyone's guess , many will go to WA , interesting times .

I think the important part to note is that Perth does not have the diversity of industry and this shows when mining slumps. Does this mean that people need to be able to move states each time this happens?

Of course not, but mining still seems to dominate the state. I can understand that it would be hard to get a lot of staff when mining pays so well when it is on, but its a self-perpetuating cycle if you don't modify it.

Retraining is a good idea, but if there is a lack of work, someone somewhere is going to find it impossible to get a job.

If Perth was more stable, maybe there would be lots more people there, as otherwise its a very livable city.

Why are you so positive about housing prices here? Savy investors look at the housing supply, prices, rents, and history.

Probably about 5 years ago a work colleague decided to buy a new house in Perth before selling his old one. People always say that this is a mistake, and in this case it took him over a year to sell it. I don't know what he sold it for, but if it took over a year it wouldn't have been great.

And what is this diversity of industry your side of the country you speak of that WA doesn't have? I would say your comments applies to australia as a whole overall. Very little secondary and tertiary industry.

you just have more rats in a cage consuming off each other that's all. More rats equals more pressure on property prices including speculative activity driven by credit creation

The ebb and flow of credit in this country still revolves around primary industry, created by borrowing into the future of potential GDP growth (of which the west provides a large chunk of this) of which WA is the centre of the majority of it. The engine room if you like.

it's a population and credit availability dynamic, not due to the so called relative thriving diversified economy over east that the west doesn't seem to have.

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eppo said..

FormulaNova said..

bazz61 said..

That was a construction boom , they all end , you stay or move with the times for work , or retrain , Pro Build has gone bust , how many that effects is anyone's guess , many will go to WA , interesting times .

I think the important part to note is that Perth does not have the diversity of industry and this shows when mining slumps. Does this mean that people need to be able to move states each time this happens?

Of course not, but mining still seems to dominate the state. I can understand that it would be hard to get a lot of staff when mining pays so well when it is on, but its a self-perpetuating cycle if you don't modify it.

Retraining is a good idea, but if there is a lack of work, someone somewhere is going to find it impossible to get a job.

If Perth was more stable, maybe there would be lots more people there, as otherwise its a very livable city.

Why are you so positive about housing prices here? Savy investors look at the housing supply, prices, rents, and history.

Probably about 5 years ago a work colleague decided to buy a new house in Perth before selling his old one. People always say that this is a mistake, and in this case it took him over a year to sell it. I don't know what he sold it for, but if it took over a year it wouldn't have been great.

And what is this diversity of industry your side of the country you speak of that WA doesn't have? I would say your comments applies to australia as a whole overall. Very little secondary and tertiary industry.

you just have more rats in a cage consuming off each other that's all. More rats equals more pressure on property prices including speculative activity driven by credit creation

The ebb and flow of credit in this country still revolves around primary industry, created by borrowing into the future of potential GDP growth (of which the west provides a large chunk of this) of which WA is the centre of the majority of it. The engine room if you like.

it's a population and credit availability dynamic, not due to the so called relative thriving diversified economy over east that the west doesn't seem to have.

I think Sydney and Melbourne have the lions share of head offices that keep a lot of people employed. Then all the things that are derived from that.

I don't know what all these industries are as there would be hundreds or thousands of them. It doesn't seem to be monopolised by mining like Perth appears to be.

What percentage does mining make of the GDP? I don't know, but I think it is smaller than a lot of people expect, especially here in Perth.

If Perth did have a similar amount of industries compared to the eastern cities, why does it seem to go into decline when mining does?

Why is the population so small in comparison? I find it quite a livable city, so shouldn't the population be much bigger than it is if everything else is equal?

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eppo said..
The ebb and flow of credit in this country still revolves around primary industry, created by borrowing into the future of potential GDP growth (of which the west provides a large chunk of this) of which WA is the centre of the majority of it. The engine room if you like.

it's a population and credit availability dynamic, not due to the so called relative thriving diversified economy over east that the west doesn't seem to have.

From what I just looked up, mining makes up 11.5% of GDP. It is the largest single industry, with obviously many others making up the other 88.5%. Even if you assumed that all mining was in WA, is that 'a large chunk'? Sure it is, but its still only just over a tenth of the total GDP.

I really hope governments here make more effort to diversify as mining is clearly cyclical and it would be better for the economy ( and people) for their standards of living to be relatively stable.

From an outsiders perspective, here it feels like almost everyone is in the mining industry.