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Toph said..
This is like watching a season of Shark Week before going scuba diving.

I plan to go in April and again in May. The travel advice has remained the same and Indonesia have banned flights to and from mainland China or anyone having passed through China in the previous 14 days too.

Im just going to be a little more vigilant than I might've otherwise been.

I returned last week and with the ban of Chinese flights it was very quite, keep in mind China out numbered Australians visiting Bali last year.

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benjl said..
Im supposed to be taking my gf over to bali for her first time end of March, think it will be better or worse then?
man we've had this holiday planned for like 6 months!

Just go
Don't eat any Chinese food and maybe cross the street if you see one eating food out of the gutter

Actual death rate is 8-10% or higher......

80000 cases

25000 recovered and 2700 dead..... you can only ever base how bad a virus is on the recovery rate.

at this rate it's 10% plus and that's dependent on all reporting from China being honest and factual.

It already is a pandemic, the global government doesn't want to announce how bad it really already is primarily because of the dollars this is going to take out of the economy.

This is no conspiracy the facts are 10% or more dead in relation to recovered.

Australia has 16% of its population over 65 whereas China only has 9% when it gets here and spreads not if it is going to cause absolute havoc

If you see how quickly it is spreading in areas once it gets there it highlights how aggressive it is.

Do not think just because you are healthy it will not take you down, once the government announces how bad it really is and people find out their will be civil disobedience

And it hasn't even mutated yet like many many many virus of this nature do..... whoever survived this first round may be fortunate enough that when it mutates again they will have some resistance.

whomever does not catch it this time may get the mutated version with no resistance

This is a man made escaped virus. There is no conspiracy only lies misinformation and smoke and mirrors.

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theDoctor said..

benjl said..
Im supposed to be taking my gf over to bali for her first time end of March, think it will be better or worse then?
man we've had this holiday planned for like 6 months!

Just go
Don't eat any Chinese food and maybe cross the street if you see one eating food out of the gutter

You in Bali or a nearby island????

Technically
Australia is a near by island

Fark - how good would it be to be trapped on a sailing boat in the ments for 8 or so weeks, forbidden from going back to Padang to get a flight home... live on fish and rice, surf all day every day otherwise - probably run out of Bintang week 3

just got got to get the timing right to make it happen

Eddie would go

Sheet is getting real, now in 10 extra countries overnight bring total to 52.

This website below is awesome for tracking daily changes, reports etc.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sheesh it appears to be killing at a rate of 8%! That's quite significant.

If there is a reasonable risk of becoming ill when you are travelling, consider the care you'll need and where you'll find it. There are hospitals in some countries I would definately not want to be entering at the best of times.

yeah i wouldnt want to be stuck in a bali hospital and have australia close its borders. Also once pandemic is official you wont have travel insurance FYI.

be pretty stupid to go IMHO but then again people are stupid. people eat blood sausage too.

Actual death rate is 8-10% or higher......

80000 cases

25000 recovered and 2700 dead.
l think someone needs to go back to school and study math.
Based on the figures you quoted the death rate is circa 3.4%.

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Keaw Yed. said..
Actual death rate is 8-10% or higher......

80000 cases

25000 recovered and 2700 dead.
l think someone needs to go back to school and study math.
Based on the figures you quoted the death rate is circa 3.4%.

50+ K don't have an outcome, you can only use the one not still infected, dead or alive. See bottom, right,.. 8% ATM. That will definitely rise because you cant build immunity and most of the deaths are from when a patient contracts it a second time which is substantially worst than the first time around. We are only 8 weeks in,. minimum of 1.5 yrs to get a vaccine. Scary AF!

I think only reliable figures will be ex - china - Ive seen death LAG rate graphs - that are bottoming out at 4% hubei , and 2% rest of world (exlc iran) .... We can hope theres 100,000's more milder cases that arent being picked up - which lowers death rate % drastically .... but also china have been undereporting death rates - ie 1 Morgue reported 128 deaths to officials on 1 day , officials reported 8 ... ! ... so who knows at the moment current death rate .... next few weeks figures rest of world will tell us alot more ... Ive also seen reports of wuhan morgues working 'around the clock' and all the morgues in the area running full capacity - and they have the potential to cremate 100k bodies a day - (12 lines say at certain morgues ) - hopefully the full capacity story isn't true ... hubei prov has a population of 57 million , if 1/2 of them have got covid over next months (ie rapid unfettered contagion from early days) = 28million infected , and death rates 10% = 2.8 million dead ??!!! , wtf ... !

The whole key with covid I feel , is EVERYONE doing their part to slow down the transmission ..... so it doesn't overwhelm healthcare at any one time (which will send death rate right UP !) .... if there's a steady trickle of cases - and the worst affected can get access to ventilators etc and be looked after by a fully staffed hospital - everything will hopefully tick over until warmer months lessons northern hemisphere spread .... If everyone just goes about their 'normal' business of travelling everywhere , attending busy gatherings etc and spreading contagion - things will / could get dire ... EVeryone needs to buy some time and give this virus a chance to lose potency or fickle out after flu season .. The r-0 figures among hotspots is bad ! - look at south korea or Italy - what happens large gatherings and 1 infected spreader ... Daegu health facilities will be overwhelmed shortly ...

Lets hope the chinese bull**** of figures dropping off is actually true ????!!! , (and lets hope the CCP take their share of cases !!)

You can make the outcomes (% of deaths) nearly any % depending upon what figures and timelines are used. What would be interesting is knowing the age groups and pre existing medical conditions of those that have been effected and recovered / died.

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Keaw Yed. said..
You can make the outcomes (% of deaths) nearly any % depending upon what figures and timelines are used. What would be interesting is knowing the age groups and pre existing medical conditions of those that have been effected and recovered / died.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

That's a good bit of info Gazuki, looks like the most impacted demographic is older people with pre-existing conditions.

0.3% death rate if you are healthy, non smoker and under 50
it rises rapidly once you are over 50 and a smoker or health issues.

sorry Boomers

Heading to Ethiopia tonight.
Getting slightly concerned there will be an outbreak and get stuck in a hotel for a month.

Relevant to the 'bali' angle - NZ's 1st case covid from someone flying Iran - NZ via Bali .... So that bali - nz flight is under investigation at moment - ctc people sitting adjacent rows etc ... They would have gone through Bali departure lounges etc - point is ..... it is everywhere .... possibly on any flight / airport lounge etc ... Flight travel must be % of magnitude higher risk of exposure than day to day life in yr own country ... Factor in many (higher risk spreaders ) trying to re-route via other hubs to avoid flight entry bans etc ...

This twat explaining why he is going to take his young family to Italy for a holiday.

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/coronavirus-covid-19-travelling-to-italy-with-small-children/12001516

He says the worst-case is that they catch it and spend some time in free medical care in Italy. Wrong, worst-case is you bring it back, with no idea you have it because of the incubation period, and you are responsible for the death of some of those unlucky enough to come in contact with you.

Similar mindset to the antivaxer's,.. they are too self absorbed to understand herd immunity concept and how their actions impact others.

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Gazuki said..
Similar mindset to the antivaxer's,.. they are too self absorbed to understand herd immunity concept and how their actions impact others.

Eeerrr no... No it's not.

Anitvaxer's believe vaccinations are all about mind control and... well whatever it is they believe. The author of this article went as far as saying if they could afford it they would postpone the trip. That says to me that for whatever reason if they were to walk away from it they would loose more than they can afford to loose (ie, they won't have the money at a later date to do the trip again).

So they have done some thinking and have mitigated their chances while visiting a country that Australia still has open boarders to. They will adhere to the travel advice (and some) and re-evaluate their plans dependant on the virus situation at the time of their departure.

Sure the the hospital comment was a bit silly, but they are not comparable to Antivaxers.....

Hmmm...back from 'Indonesia'...flu symptoms...

www.theaustralian.com.au/nocookies?a=A.flavipes

Don't worry, you're all stupid. The flu kills more people!!

you know how many people the flu kills each year?
It's lots, right?

The flu has a 0.1% CFR (confirmed fatality rate)

The WHO has just announced the CFR for the COVID-19 is... 3-4%.

and furthermore, the R0 number is 3-4 times higher. That means it's much more contagious than the flu.

Do you get it yet? Don't worry, you more than likely will.

I also have to say, that with the WHO having been down-playing the severity all along, they were saying the CFR was 1% at most, they won't even call a pandemic a pandemic, this figure of 3-4% is almost surely going to be a low ball.