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bjw said..
It's far easier to protest to blame the government than to take action yourself.

However nature will make humans impact minor compared with the major changes that nature/earth history of proven change over time will iniveratibly do.

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japie said..
Denier!

Burn him!

No, look at his half arsed ideas......see what the consensus is.....weigh it up.....then act.

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VAILIYATBEN said..

bjw said..
It's far easier to protest to blame the government than to take action yourself.

However nature will make humans impact minor compared with the major changes that nature/earth history of proven change over time will iniveratibly do.

If you're interested.

Thanks logman, that puts it in perspective. I like the end sentence, "we should make things as simple as possible, BUT NO SIMPLER"!

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log man said..

VAILIYATBEN said..

bjw said..
It's far easier to protest to blame the government than to take action yourself.

However nature will make humans impact minor compared with the major changes that nature/earth history of proven change over time will iniveratibly do.

If you're interested.

Great vid - super simplified, but I suspect still too nuanced for some.

Just reading Tim Flanery.
www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-17/climate-change-deniers-are-a-threat-to-our-children/11518138

He's painting a grim picture, and this is the young people's response to dangers ahead.
The extinction Rebellion manifest.

"This is our darkest hour. Humanity finds itself embroiled in an event unprecedented in its history, one which, unless immediately addressed, will catapult us further into the destruction of all we hold dear [.] The wilful complicity displayed by our government has shattered meaningful democracy and cast aside the common interest in favour of short-term gain and private profit [.] We hereby declare the bonds of the social contract to be null and void."

Can't say I blame them, if I was 50 - 60 years younger, I suspect I'd be a part of it as well.

Given that decrepit be lie ves the sea has risen an astonishing 8 inches in the last century there is no way anyone here is going to change his mind on this subject.

Observable evidence - there is none to back up his claim. He just assumes what he's been told is not a lie.

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decrepit said..
Just reading Tim Flanery.
www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-17/climate-change-deniers-are-a-threat-to-our-children/11518138

He's painting a grim picture, and this is the young people's response to dangers ahead.
The extinction Rebellion manifest.

"This is our darkest hour. Humanity finds itself embroiled in an event unprecedented in its history, one which, unless immediately addressed, will catapult us further into the destruction of all we hold dear [.] The wilful complicity displayed by our government has shattered meaningful democracy and cast aside the common interest in favour of short-term gain and private profit [.] We hereby declare the bonds of the social contract to be null and void."

Can't say I blame them, if I was 50 - 60 years younger, I suspect I'd be a part of it as well.

Quoting from a doomsday cult manifest.?

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petermac33 said..
Given that decrepit be lie ves the sea has risen an astonishing 8 inches in the last century there is no way anyone here is going to change his mind on this subject.

Observable evidence - there is none to back up his claim. He just assumes what he's been told is not a lie.

Peter, 8" is bugger all. That happens on the estuary with a sudden strong wind shift, there's no way any small individual can actually see that change over a century, for a start we aren't that old!!!
And it's not my claim, it's been observed in reliable tide measurements over that period.
Unfortunately Peter you just don't get it, what science is or how it works, and how to evaluate it's evidence and conclusions. That's why you believe the earth is flat, because you can't see the curve, and can't evaluate the evidence that says it's a sphere.

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Foghorn said.. >>Quoting from a doomsday cult manifest.?

I don't think so, the science looks pretty sound. Admittedly, 2100 seems a long way off, and 4C doesn't sound like a big temperature increase. And climate predictions don't seem that reliable.
However, the basic effects are well understood.
We are already seeing the predictions starting, in the increased extreme weather examples around the Globe, from massive floods, frosts, fires, hurricanes etc.

If we value our descendants at all, we won't condemn them to the hell that could come about, if we do nothing.

And personally I think the chances of life being extremely unpleasant for the average person in 100 years time are very high, unless there's a very rapid change of climate change denial.

Extreme weather event frequency was debunked I'm afraid. Its just more people are effected now because there are more people.Deaths from extreme weather events has actually decreased over time.due to improved technology and response times.
The reason allarmists signify every weather event now is due to the minimal amount of warming that had occured over the last 20 yrs.
I think the 4 dgree increase is improbable as thats one of the ipcc's worst case senario models ,last time i checked.
I think massive energy improvements are required as well as ecosystem preservation to head in the right direction .
These kids probably lead some of the most comfortable lives in human history by the way so due to overpopulation its got to go down.

Since it is common knowledge amongst alarmists that cyclones are getting bigger and more frequent here in Australia.

So this question is for the alarmists only! What does the BoM data say about cyclone trend for Australia?

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Foghorn said..
Extreme weather event frequency was debunked I'm afraid.

Where, how, who?????????????

Maybe answer above question .Could be a start.

How does what's happening in Australia be relevant for what's happening over the whole world?
Some places will get colder some hotter, maybe some places milder. I haven't looked at any local effects anywhere.
But certainly the hurricanes through the pacific, the flooding in Europe, and then the heat waves are all setting records.

OK I just went looking for Bom's predictions and came across this.

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In 2018 the Bureau of Meteorology undertook an objective reanalysis of tropical cyclones in the Australian region, supported by National Energy Resources Australia (NERA) and partners from the oil and gas industry. The reanalysis database and report are available via the links below.

So do you really think that's credible?

And from "The Conversation"

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At The Conversation we've recently vowed to improve our climate change coverage, and part of that means moderating comments with a similar degree of rigour. Once upon a time, we might have viewed climate sceptics as merely frustrating. We relied on other commenters and authors to rebut skeptics and deniers, which often lead to endless back and forth. But it's 2019, and now we know better. Climate change deniers, and those shamelessly peddling pseudoscience and misinformation, are perpetuating ideas that will ultimately destroy the planet. As a publisher, giving them a voice on our site contributes to a stalled public discourse. [/quote}

I'll help you out

www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

Here is the graph:



Please note, this is the empirical data, not some exaggerated prediction. Please do not confuse predictions with reality.

As you noted, this downward trend in cyclone activity is for Australia only. But this trend is global. The only upward trend with cyclone activity is the media reporting and the exaggeration of them.

I know alarmists will not believe any of this, despite what the empirical data says. It is like a religion for them.

But facts are facts. Please don't report me to the Gestapo for posting empirical data from the Bom on a water sports forum.

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TonyAbbott said..
I'll help you out

www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

Here is the graph:



Please note, this is the empirical data, not some exaggerated prediction. Please do not confuse predictions with reality.

As you noted, this downward trend in cyclone activity is for Australia only. But this trend is global. The only upward trend with cyclone activity is the media reporting and the exaggeration of them.

I know alarmists will not believe any of this, despite what the empirical data says. It is like a religion for them.

But facts are facts. Please don't report me to the Gestapo for posting empirical data from the Bom on a water sports forum.

Probably best to show the explanation as well
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

And
www.eldersweather.com.au/news/tropical-cyclones-numbers-declining-in-australia/528704

or
www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/3cf983377b8043ff1ecf15709eebf298.pdf

I am glad we agree that cyclones are not getting more intense or more frequent.

Despite the climate councils alarmist prophecies.

I wonder what else the alarmists are getting wrong?

I wonder why so many people believe the alarmists, despite to evidence proving them wrong?

8 inches is two thirds of a foot and is not bugger all.

In a area that is very low lying - an 8 inch rise in sea level would see the water submerge land that was previously not unde water.

Take the Swan River as a example. There are several small beach areas around the river. I'm sure not all the beaches incline at the same rate.

With a 8 inch rise in any low lying beaches - a clear change would be noticeable.

Show me video or pics of the Swan River up to 100 years ago with the river at a lower height. The beaches back then around the river,a lot more of them must have been visible if you're regurgitated data theory is true.

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VAILIYATBEN said..

bjw said..
It's far easier to protest to blame the government than to take action yourself.

However nature will make humans 19216801.one/ mailsafe.onl/protonmail/ impact minor compared with the major changes that nature/earth history of proven change over time will iniveratibly do.

It's far easier to protest to blame the government than to take action yourself.

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petermac33 said..>> Show me video or pics of the Swan River up to 100 years ago with the river at a lower height. The beaches back then around the river,a lot more of them must have been visible if you're regurgitated data theory is true.

If you can find a "video" from 100 years ago good luck.

Lame response decrepit.

There is a small beach 300 metres to the city side of the car park at Applecross.

The incline of the beach is shallow. The cycle path that runs alongside it is not that much higher.

With an 8 inch rise in sea level in the last 100 years as you claim - pics of that beach should show a lot,lot more visible.

There are lots of old people who have lived in Applecross all their lives who no doubt can vouch your claim is complete BS.

But their data,their peer reviewed studies can never,ever be wrong I hear you repeat to yourself.

Its called a lie.

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TonyAbbott said..
I'll help you out

www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

Here is the graph:



Please note, this is the empirical data, not some exaggerated prediction. Please do not confuse predictions with reality.

As you noted, this downward trend in cyclone activity is for Australia only. But this trend is global. The only upward trend with cyclone activity is the media reporting and the exaggeration of them.

I know alarmists will not believe any of this, despite what the empirical data says. It is like a religion for them.

But facts are facts. Please don't report me to the Gestapo for posting empirical data from the Bom on a water sports forum.

from the article you quoted above
Good to see you are looking at some science, haha

"There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of global warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models, with a general tendency for models to project fewer tropical cyclones in the Australia region in the future climate and a greater proportion of the high intensity storms (stronger wind speeds and heavier rainfall). Wind speed is only one aspect of tropical cyclones and their impacts. The amount of heavy precipitation from all weather systems, including tropical cyclones, is likely to increase. Increased rainfall intensity from tropical cyclones is pertinent to Australia, since these storms have historically been associated with major flooding. Additionally, increases in storm surges and extreme sea-levels are very likely to occur in association with tropical cyclones under future climate change. This change is independent of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and is directly related to increases in global mean sea-level due to global warming. Projected changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are inherently tied to changes in large-scale patterns such as the El Ni?o - Southern Oscillation, changes in sea surface temperature and changes in deep convection. As global climate models improve, their simulation of tropical cyclones is expected to improve, thus providing greater certainty in projections of tropical cyclone changes in a warmer world."

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petermac33 said..>>>Lame response decrepit.>>>>

Well it wasn't worth tying any harder, It would probably be easy to find an 8" difference only days apart.

This just shows your, naive approach to proof and logic. You make no mention of establishing the tidal and storm surge conditions for each pic. Without that the two pics are meaningless, so arguing logic with you is pointless, you really don't understand it.

Anyway with this global day of action, is it about real change or is it signalling virtue? Those participating will they begin the process of changing their lifestyle so it becomes one of minimising their carbon output? Or will they continue to enjoy overseas holidays, buying lots of consumer goods, continue to drive around the place and so on and so forth?

Its kind of a joke when people turn the lights off during the Earth Hour once a year and then have the air conditioning on when the temperature is about 25 degrees C.

It's easy to be concerned about the environment sitting on your arse in a climate controlled environment and looking at a computer screen. However if it comes to choosing to voluntarily accepting sacrifice, such as not keeping cool when it's hot or forgoing that dream holiday it's usually a different story.

Not often that I agree with Moby! I remember a few months ago some sweet 16 year old eco warrior girl from Townsville saw nothing wrong with flying to Canberra for the day to protest Federal government climate policy.
Now everybody repeat after me

Ecotourism is an oxymoron

Decrepit that is another lame response. I put it to you that you in complete denial on this topic.

Obviously if you take a pic at high tide or especially in a storm the water level is going to be higher.

Why don't you ask around the old folks who have lived at Applecross or some other suburb on the river if they have noticed the river rise in their lifetime.

Again,in a area of land or beach next to the river a eight inch increase in the river is going to be very,very noticeable.

You can deny the bleeding obvious all you want but that is a fact.

Their data or observation - history tells us Govt's lie.

PM33 has never heard of the boiling frog