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myscreenname said..

I've been liquidating my BTC holdings this year in stages, sold a big chunk today. I think the wave looks like it's about to close out. There will be broken boards.

Easy money, hard money, is all money.

I thought you had a nominated date where you were going to dump the lot? Bad luck that it coincided with a huge slump, but I thought you held fast to your decision

Good thing that you didn't, and behaved human like.

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FormulaNova said..

myscreenname said..

I've been liquidating my BTC holdings this year in stages, sold a big chunk today. I think the wave looks like it's about to close out. There will be broken boards.

Easy money, hard money, is all money.

I thought you had a nominated date where you were going to dump the lot? Bad luck that it coincided with a huge slump, but I thought you held fast to your decision

Good thing that you didn't, and behaved human like.

When it came to it, I just took enough BTC out to last me 3 months as I felt it was probably more likely to go up than down. What surprised me was how much it went up and how quickly - almost 100% in 4 months. I also speculated on Axie Infinity after reading about the project and seeing the trend in NFTs and recalling the popularity of crypto kitties back in 2017.

As BTC has been going up I've been swapping it for Tether in $5 - $10k chunks and am earning 12% interest on a Defi lending platform. Looks like BTC bull run still has a way to go. I have no doubt that it will dump hard again at some point. But so will most other assets.

Probably nothing.. tick tock

www.bbc.com/news/business-58986399

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-17/n-z-inflation-surges-more-than-forecast-to-fastest-in-10-years

www.dw.com/en/german-inflation-rises-at-fastest-rate-in-28-years/a-59365140

www.bnnbloomberg.ca/french-inflation-accelerates-to-fastest-in-almost-a-decade-1.1659557

I'm wondering if you understand how significant your "tick tock"'reference is or it was just a passing comment? Either way .


"tick tock" indeed

We are entering quite an interesting moment in history.
The main question is what you could do about those trillions of printed paper money?
Can you still exchange those for real goods?
I wish one day the whole world could switch to primary exchange = goods for goods.
In last year China failed to fulfill their obligation to the USA to buy goods ad such value ( 300 bln)
not because they didn't want or had no money to pay.
Simply because the USA doesn't have enough goods to fulfill the bill of 300 bln
Nothing to sell.
Maybe besides Hollywood Movies, Google advertising, cryptocurrencies scam, and inflated stock options, but nothing real.
Simple example - you could inflate artificially Tesla company value to be equal to the rest of the motor companies in the whole world.
But it is simple fiction.

If we could create in the next decade a whole new world where people do exchange goods for goods - like for thousand years already- the whole world may look completely different.
The poorest African country may still have something to offer - like oranges, bananas and soya bean or tea leaf that rest of the world like to buy,
Nobody may want to get pure paper with printed zeros for their hard work and heavy goods anymore.
Macro could invent for you barter equivalent currency for you if none yet is in existence....
So the real risk to western world is : what if the rest of the world China, Russia, Latin America, Africa, and Asia will start trade strictly goods for goods?>
they will no longer accept 1 tone of grain to be exchanged on 1 miserable TV show or advertisement promise by Google ??

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Macroscien said..
We are entering quite an interesting moment in history.
The main question is what you could do about those trillions of printed paper money?
Can you still exchange those for real goods?
I wish one day the whole world could switch to primary exchange = goods for goods.
In last year China failed to fulfill their obligation to the USA to buy goods ad such value ( 300 bln)
not because they didn't want or had no money to pay.
Simply because the USA doesn't have enough goods to fulfill the bill of 300 bln
Nothing to sell.
Maybe besides Hollywood Movies, Google advertising, cryptocurrencies scam, and inflated stock options, but nothing real.
Simple example - you could inflate artificially Tesla company value to be equal to the rest of the motor companies in the whole world.
But it is simple fiction.

If we could create in the next decade a whole new world where people do exchange goods for goods - like for thousand years already- the whole world may look completely different.
The poorest African country may still have something to offer - like oranges, bananas and soya bean or tea leaf that rest of the world like to buy,
Nobody may want to get pure paper with printed zeros for their hard work and heavy goods anymore.
Macro could invent for you barter equivalent currency for you if none yet is in existence....
So the real risk to western world is : what if the rest of the world China, Russia, Latin America, Africa, and Asia will start trade strictly goods for goods?>
they will no longer accept 1 tone of grain to be exchanged on 1 miserable TV show or advertisement promise by Google ??

Why do people have such a problem with money? It was invented/evolved for just this reason.

It also has this cool feature called an exchange rate. When other countries think that your Venezuelan Bolivar is artificially inflated, they reduce the exchange rate accordingly to where they think it is a fair exchange.

As for things not having value if its not a tangible item, you clearly have missed the idea of patents, just like the Chinese have.

Exchanging goods for goods? Yeah, I want to buy this new Toyota, here is a my old Nissan, plus a pig, some beans, a pile of sand, three bales of wool, and forty loaves of bread. Thank you. It has gone down in price? Can I get my change as 39 blocks of chocolate?

Yeah, sounds like a great idea.

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myscreenname said..
I've been liquidating my BTC holdings this year in stages, sold a big chunk today. I think the wave looks like it's about to close out. There will be broken boards.

So, you are effectively shorting bitcoin.

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myscreenname said..
When it came to it, I just took enough BTC out to last me 3 months as I felt it was probably more likely to go up than down. What surprised me was how much it went up and how quickly - almost 100% in 4 months.

Situation normal. This halvening cycle bull run is only half way through, or less.

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I also speculated on Axie Infinity after reading about the project and seeing the trend in NFTs and recalling the popularity of crypto kitties back in 2017.

Have you played the game? *Can* you play it, or are them some fundamental inbalances in the game that make it *unplayable for most*? Have a go. Consider it doing your own research.

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As BTC has been going up I've been swapping it for Tether in $5 - $10k chunks and am earning 12% interest on a Defi lending platform. Looks like BTC bull run still has a way to go. I have no doubt that it will dump hard again at some point. But so will most other assets.

So you're not only effectively shorting bitcoin, you are making it a taxable event, at both ends.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Tesla share price when a lot of the big car and truck players start going down the path of hydrogen rather than EV's. EV's are great for city shorter distance travel, but longer distances and greater loads looks like the hydrogen is getting looked at closer as a solution to reduce emissions.

^^^

Hydrogen powered is still a long, long way off. Probably not in your lifetime! Electric Vehicles are already well and truly here (just not in Australia!).

It will, however, be interesting to see what happens as the other manufacturers (finally) introduce their Electric Vehicles.

Tesla has already won. This is exactly what they wanted to happen. They didn't want to dominate the market, they wanted to change it.

they have definitely re-defined the auto industry. Most of their tech and manufacture is in house, on a giga scale. Their share price has shot through the roof with it. Not sure if the market still sees upside in their current price as others start to catch up with other EV's? The Tesla's arent cheap to service or repair as they have to be by a Tesla representative, but maybe not as regular service required as a petrol or diesel car. If they could just come down in price to the everyday persons budget then they would be selling on a giga scale and then justify their share price.

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evlPanda said..

myscreenname said..
I've been liquidating my BTC holdings this year in stages, sold a big chunk today. I think the wave looks like it's about to close out. There will be broken boards.

So, you are effectively shorting bitcoin.

myscreenname said..
When it came to it, I just took enough BTC out to last me 3 months as I felt it was probably more likely to go up than down. What surprised me was how much it went up and how quickly - almost 100% in 4 months.

Situation normal. This halvening cycle bull run is only half way through, or less.

I also speculated on Axie Infinity after reading about the project and seeing the trend in NFTs and recalling the popularity of crypto kitties back in 2017.

Have you played the game? *Can* you play it, or are them some fundamental inbalances in the game that make it *unplayable for most*? Have a go. Consider it doing your own research.

As BTC has been going up I've been swapping it for Tether in $5 - $10k chunks and am earning 12% interest on a Defi lending platform. Looks like BTC bull run still has a way to go. I have no doubt that it will dump hard again at some point. But so will most other assets.

So you're not only effectively shorting bitcoin, you are making it a taxable event, at both ends.

Yes, wow you can read!

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evlPanda said..

myscreenname said..
I've been liquidating my BTC holdings this year in stages, sold a big chunk today. I think the wave looks like it's about to close out. There will be broken boards.

So, you are effectively shorting bitcoin.

Panda, why are you putting the action of "liquidating" and "shorting" in the same strategy basket?

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evlPanda said..
Hydrogen powered is still a long, long way off

in Australia, yes. It's already in use elsewhere.

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AJEaster said..

evlPanda said..

myscreenname said..
I've been liquidating my BTC holdings this year in stages, sold a big chunk today. I think the wave looks like it's about to close out. There will be broken boards.

So, you are effectively shorting bitcoin.

Panda, why are you putting the action of "liquidating" and "shorting" in the same strategy basket?

"Effectively" shorting bitcoin by buying tether.

I think alternatively buying a put as insurance could be a sound decision.

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Poida said..
they have definitely re-defined the auto industry. Most of their tech and manufacture is in house, on a giga scale. Their share price has shot through the roof with it. Not sure if the market still sees upside in their current price as others start to catch up with other EV's? The Tesla's arent cheap to service or repair as they have to be by a Tesla representative, but maybe not as regular service required as a petrol or diesel car. If they could just come down in price to the everyday persons budget then they would be selling on a giga scale and then justify their share price.

What regular servicing does an EV require? This aspect is also going to really affect the automotive industry, who are currently generating a lot of their revenue through servicing, right?

So, in context of this thread, er somewhat, how will the other automotive companies survive without their regular servicing revenue?

I don't have a Tesla (but would very much like one) but a colleague does have one and he has explained that there *is no servicing*. In 25,000 kilometres he has had to change the windscreen wipers, and charge it with about $500 worth of zaps. That's it. Even his brake discs are "near new" after 25K Kms, because they use regenerative braking.

I mean, take a look at the motor/s. There isn't much going on in there! They are quite simple.

Imagine *never* going to a petrol/service station ever again. Feels odd.

What's the estimated life span of the batteries in that car and does anyone know what it costs to replace them ?

Anyone wanna have a go at translating what this means for the Aussie layman?

He's saying what we all know. Prices are rising (inflation) because government has been handing out so much money and people are speculating/investing/gambling crazy, on property, stocks, crypto, old cars, hoarding cash, whatever.

It's unsustainable and it will come to a halt at some point. A huge bubble is forming, unlike anything we have ever seen before. When it bursts it will be quick. No one knows when it will happen and what will hold value when it does.

Take your bets, have a great weekend.

Tick Tock

My bet is there are 5 ish years of fiscal partying left. It's not really a bet - just history repeating. Tick tock.