Hey all, what can you typically expect from winter wind wise? This doldrum business is getting me depressed.... was out on Sunday in the morning and we had a few fun gusts, but it didn't do anything great till the arvo and I missed it :(

Does winter usually throw some big winds? Northerlies right?

Am desparate to learn how to use my straps...... and spell.

Has anyone got so desparate that they resorted to voodoo to bring on more wind?

Not sure about the voodoo stuff, but had a great time sailing Northerlies last Winter, especially down at Rye. Looking forward to the first session down there this winter!

last winter we had 2-3 months solid with every weekend of 20knot NW-W down this way. We even began to whinge about missing our bigger gear toward the end....

Yes last winter was awesome, as red says, I sailed just about every weekend on my 5.0 or smaller in the northerlies, sometimes even on both Sat and Sun of that weekend........waiting........waiting........

We all neeed to find a new hobby, I think, like flying rc choppers, st lugeing, chasen girls, go-carting, down hill mtbing, sking, snowboarding, cooking ect..

Autumn is now over any way so we all should be celebrating.

one thing I have noticed tho, it seems alot warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's why we are getting no wind.

And K Dog! keep it real man! and the wind might just come back!

Yep, it was a week from now, last year when I managed to get 5 days of 20-30knots in a row. Just about on Uni. holidays so hoping for some good weeks ahead.

www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/fawkner_beacon_hampton_beach?utm_source=www.windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect

according to this July is windiest...

I'm not sure cos I've had one winter here but it was last winter and it was awesome

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ginger pom said...

www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/fawkner_beacon_hampton_beach?utm_source=www.windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect

according to this July is windiest...

I'm not sure cos I've had one winter here but it was last winter and it was awesome

You would think the dominant wind direction for july would be nnw not wsw as the stats show

This should give you hope. From the 9th June last year. Was quite windy on the days around it too.

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Jman said...

ginger pom said...

www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/fawkner_beacon_hampton_beach?utm_source=www.windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect

according to this July is windiest...

I'm not sure cos I've had one winter here but it was last winter and it was awesome

You would think the dominant wind direction for july would be nnw not wsw as the stats show

Completely different to the stats I calculated, which show most common wind at all times of day was northerly, though it was just for 2000-2005 (really should update that...); theirs is 2006-2010.
www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/fbeacon.JUL.html

Perhaps Northerlies only seem the most common winds because that is when it is pumping enough for a good sail. With 16hours of 5knot SW wind and 8hours of 25knots N wind record as predominantly SW for that day?

Either way I definately got most of my good sails last winter in a north wind at Rye.

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windjunky said...

Jman said...

ginger pom said...

www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/fawkner_beacon_hampton_beach?utm_source=www.windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect

according to this July is windiest...

I'm not sure cos I've had one winter here but it was last winter and it was awesome

You would think the dominant wind direction for july would be nnw not wsw as the stats show

Completely different to the stats I calculated, which show most common wind at all times of day was northerly, though it was just for 2000-2005 (really should update that...); theirs is 2006-2010.
www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/fbeacon.JUL.html

windjunky -I was going to ask this on another thread but is there anyway to assess certainty from a forecast. Forecasters say what they think is going to happen but never how much evidence there is for it eg they never say "this low could go either way, if it goes north they'll be nothing"

Talk to us windjunky tell us all whats happend to the wind????? please dude when is going to be windy again, we all want answers???

I am hoping its ground hog winter season - complete repeat of last year.... just putting it out there.... weather gods got internet?

Hobbies.... hmm.... if I keep playing computer games I am going to look like Cartman when he played WOW online for days on end....

Lights on at night at the Elwood skate bowl?

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flipper4444 said...
And K Dog! keep it real man! and the wind might just come back!

It's not easy man - by the time I get into the water with some good wind my fingers will be so stumpy and fat I won't be able to type with just one character at a time..... even my thumbs will have hail damage....

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flipper4444 said...

Talk to us windjunky tell us all whats happend to the wind????? please dude when is going to be windy again, we all want answers???

It's called autumn... big highs are over us rather than being north or south, water and land temperatures get close together so no seabreeze... its just autumn (or as i used to call it, mountain biking season) dude! This year of course Melbourne had its record run of days over 20C (old record 78 in a row, new record 123!) all because of a lack of significant cold fronts reaching us during summer and first half of autumn; hope thats not a trend.

As for when the wind will return; Tues/Wed next week!!

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ginger pom said...

windjunky -I was going to ask this on another thread but is there anyway to assess certainty from a forecast. Forecasters say what they think is going to happen but never how much evidence there is for it eg they never say "this low could go either way, if it goes north they'll be nothing"

Not really, or rather, not explicitly. The forecasters (for Victoria only at the moment) now take a weather forecast model output grid and manipulate that (with some fancy smoothing-out code making things consistent) to create a new map. See:
www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
The text is automatically generated from the maps they create. Groovy eh...
The manipulating they do is in accordance with how they know the model might be deficient (for instance, models generally have too low a surface wind speed), their local knowledge, and for what other models from around the world might be showing. This last aspect is what can give some idea of the uncertainty, but isnt in a product per se. (The only one i know of is the "chance of" rainfall products at: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp ) It may be that one day we do get probability forecasts, because the better models actually make multiple runs every day to try and sample the range of "possible states" of the atmosphere - and from those multiple runs we can get some idea of probability too.

So my advice is... look at several different model outputs rather than just one if you really want to get an idea of probability. If they all line up, good chance, if they dont, less chance.