I have sailed a fair bit at Rye and always found true northerlies a bit tricky because of the sand banks. I prefer either NE or NW at Rye. True northerly at Rye is dead onshore, combined with the sand banks makes it an obstacle course to get out. I always end up walking out a bit first, and also watching the tack the guys already on the water are sailing.
High tide can be ok but low tide can reveal ankle depth banks. I used to have a 40cm fin and always had problems at low tide. Sometimes you can get shallow banks right out to the 5knot markers (white poles)
Next decent northerly (Sunday?) I was maybe going to try to Safety Beach, Dromana. Bit deeper water and slight cross-onshore. Plan may be foiled due to a family lunch

Don't let the water depth stop you though, there is a Bay full of deep water out the back, and its a top spot.