I've been watching the various models for years in relation to our wind patterns.
I find for seabreezes, that ACCESS model Marine Wind Forecast (
www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml) seems to be most accurate. For instance, yesterday, it was spot on, but the new graphical forecasts overcooked the SSW flow pushing up the bay. On pure seabreeze days (little synoptic flow) when the sun is out, it underestimates by a few knots, so 10-15 knots on the model will often reach 18 knots up the northern end where there is more smaller-scale local seabreeze pull.
For northerlies, on the other hand, those new graphical forecasts seem better as they capture the local mixing better, especially down through Melbourne Airport onto the northern bay.