Easterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the late evening then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening.

We are going to have two late evenings on Saturday

The second one will be less windy than the first

www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/centralcoast.shtml

Despite the double late evenings looks like a much better forecast than the bay. I'm hoping we get some wind for the Stern Chaser at Elwood. Looks like it'll be windier earlier, but don't know what sea breeze effect their might possibly be.

Gone are the days where there was a BoM fella with local knowledge and Experience and now totally relying on the computer generated forecast.

If they use the computer generated forecast I think they dont have enough observation points to do it accurately. This is clearly seen on the bottom of the forecast weather stating

"Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. Wind warnings are issued for today and tomorrow and describe the highest category of wind warning for that day."

BoM = BS a guide at best!

I seem to recall that the advisory at the bottom of the forecasts became more prominent after the 1998 Sydney to Hobart.

As to the computer generated forecasts - well, pretty hard to fault a supercomputer IMHO

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SHEETIN said...
Gone are the days where there was a BoM fella with local knowledge and Experience and now totally relying on the computer generated forecast.

Who do you think comes up with the algorithms for the computer...?

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mathew said...

SHEETIN said...
Gone are the days where there was a BoM fella with local knowledge and Experience and now totally relying on the computer generated forecast.

Who do you think comes up with the algorithms for the computer...?

A statistical analyst computer geek running off poorly located observation points, without any local knowledge.

Select to expand quote

SHEETIN said...

mathew said...

SHEETIN said...
Gone are the days where there was a BoM fella with local knowledge and Experience and now totally relying on the computer generated forecast.

Who do you think comes up with the algorithms for the computer...?

A statistical analyst computer geek running off poorly located observation points, without any local knowledge.

G'day SHEETIN,

I work at the BoM, windsurf and SUP, did my PhD with weather/climate models, have my own obsession with the winds on the bay and know several of the BoM bay forecasters personally. You wont meet a bunch of more dedicated, passionate, professional and 'weather-obsessed' folks anywhere. Period. [Even on seabreeze!] And while the first pass of any forecast does come from a computer (though it's not based on statistics but rather atmospheric physics, so it doesn't actually care about individual weather stations as such), it is definitely not what the final outlook is solely based on. There's local knowledge, experience, safety margins, years of training etc etc, and barely a computer statistician naive dart throw to be found - though admittedly a fair slab of geek (of the weather obsessed variety)! Hope this gives you a little more insight to what goes on at the BoM, and watch out for several of us lurking on the beaches having a surf/windsurf/kitesurf/SUP (we're the ones gazing at the clouds as we pass you upwind )

PS: my favourite BoM ocean forecast was from about 3 years ago on the central NSW coast when a nightshift forecaster(/surfer) slipped in the words "fully sick waves" as a placeholder... and forgot to take it out. One of the most positively feedbacked ocean forecasts we've ever done... And he was right too!