I've been wondering about this for a while.

I was thinking some way of producing a forecast made up of every individual's opinion - and whether it would beat the BOM.

Would anyone be interested in playing a sort of "windy tips" game?

I'd score it and collect people's predictions via private message on this forum (because individual predictions would have to be closed)

All you'd have to do is guess - by Friday alvo at say 3pm - what the windstrength at Fawkner Beacon would be on Saturday at 10am, 1pm and 4pm?

I'll average the tips and publish them on Friday night.

The winner would be the person who got closest to the results on this page. There are no prizes other than glory.

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60901/IDV60901.95872.shtml

Please let me know what you think. It's loosely based on a book called Wisdom of Crowds that states lots of non-experts can produce a better result than experts.

Ok - we have one person up for it...

If another five could put their hands up, then I'll run it this week..

Select to expand quote

offshorewind said...

i will put my 50 bucks on the table, here ya go now son

Ok outside of the comp. Give me three numbers for saturday and three numbers for sunday....

so i guess this means you too made up then

ginger pom...my prediction is that the forecast for most of the week looks promising only to get shattered when it comes to weekend.
Sat: 17knt.....sunday: 12knts...with a frustrating peak to 24 knts sat night when sun is down.

Ok, the winning tips would have been

Saturday
10am 13 knots
1pm 8 knots
4pm 6 knots

Sunday
10am 18 knots
1pm 19 knots
4pm 19 knots

Not quite sure what the BOM said but if I'd known Sunday was going to be 19 then I would have got myself a pass...

Select to expand quote

windybee1 said...

i lay 120 bucks on the table thats its going to be a mega windy august and spring . any one want to bet against me???

So far compared to July, August has been crap! We had so many windy (and strong winds at that) days last month....I can remember all the weekends at Rye on my 5m and even that really strong day when I was out on my 4.0 and overpowered at times....

This w/e is looking rather dissapointing too....

Select to expand quote

windybee1 said...
bullcrap i was windsurfing in 25 + knots last sunday afternoon at rye

Considering that the South Channel marker never reached anything like 25kn (it was 12-15kn at 1pm) - you must be using some of that "locally produced" wind.

Select to expand quote

mathew said...
Considering that the South Channel marker never reached anything like 25kn (it was 12-15kn at 1pm) - you must be using some of that "locally produced" wind.

I concur

Further up the bay @ Edithvale , I had a peak of 18 knots at around 1.30 but everything else was sub 15 knots for the entire day.

Select to expand quote

drift said...

Further up the bay @ Edithvale , I had a peak of 18 knots at around 1.30 but everything else was sub 15 knots for the entire day.

Where abouts in Edi did you go out? I live in that area also.....

BOM data for South Channel Island on Sunday

last two numbers are knots and gusts - So while windy bee was making his own wind no doubt, there was enough to be reasonably powered up on a 6m...

09/11:30pm - - - - - N 30 33 16 18 - -
09/11:00pm - - - - - N 30 33 16 18 - -
09/10:30pm - - - - - N 32 35 17 19 - -
09/10:00pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/09:30pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/09:00pm - - - - - N 33 37 18 20 - -
09/08:30pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/08:00pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/07:30pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/07:00pm - - - - - N 37 44 20 24 - -
09/06:30pm - - - - - N 35 44 19 24 - -
09/06:00pm - - - - - N 33 41 18 22 - -
09/05:30pm - - - - - N 37 44 20 24 - -
09/05:00pm - - - - - NNE 32 39 17 21 - -
09/04:30pm - - - - - NNE 39 46 21 25 - -
09/04:00pm - - - - - NNE 39 48 21 26 - -
09/03:30pm - - - - - NNE 37 44 20 24 - -
09/03:00pm - - - - - N 43 50 23 27 - -
09/02:30pm - - - - - N 41 48 22 26 - -
09/02:00pm - - - - - N 37 44 20 24 - -
09/01:30pm - - - - - N 35 44 19 24 - -
09/01:00pm - - - - - N 35 43 19 23 - -
09/12:30pm - - - - - N 37 43 20 23 - -
09/12:00pm - - - - - N 35 41 19 22 - -
09/11:30am - - - - - N 35 41 19 22 - -

Select to expand quote

windaddict said...

windybee1 said...

i lay 120 bucks on the table thats its going to be a mega windy august and spring . any one want to bet against me???

So far compared to July, August has been crap! We had so many windy (and strong winds at that) days last month....I can remember all the weekends at Rye on my 5m and even that really strong day when I was out on my 4.0 and overpowered at times....

This w/e is looking rather dissapointing too....

Windybee1, where abouts do I say in the above post that I didn't believe you that you were out on Sunday in 25 knots ?

Allright back to serious stuff!
Its an early call but here's my tips for this weekend

Saturday
10am 12 knots- N
1pm 20 knots- N
4pm 15 knots- N

Sunday
10am 15 knots-N
1pm 20 knots- NW
4pm 18 knots- WNW

Select to expand quote

drift said...

Allright back to serious stuff!
Its an early call but here's my tips for this weekend

Saturday
10am 12 knots- N
1pm 20 knots- N
4pm 15 knots- N

Sunday
10am 15 knots-N
1pm 20 knots- NW
4pm 18 knots- WNW

that sounds perfect for me to crush a few at the Royal Edi golf course

Just for glory windybee!

Select to expand quote

drift said...

Allright back to serious stuff!
Its an early call but here's my tips for this weekend

Saturday
10am 12 knots- N
1pm 20 knots- N
4pm 15 knots- N

Sunday
10am 15 knots-N
1pm 20 knots- NW
4pm 18 knots- WNW

Good work drift!!

I've got your tips down. I'm thinking score 1 for each tip that's within 2 knots of actual. Bonus score for getting Saturday and Sunday the right way round eg saturday windier than sunday. Bonus score for getting all six results in the right order... That'll get 8 tips like the AFL

Select to expand quote

ginger pom said...

drift said...

Allright back to serious stuff!
Its an early call but here's my tips for this weekend

Saturday
10am 12 knots- N
1pm 20 knots- N
4pm 15 knots- N

Sunday
10am 15 knots-N
1pm 20 knots- NW
4pm 18 knots- WNW

i really hope drift is wrong and BOM are right

Select to expand quote

windybee1 said...

how much money has drift got down ????

A dollar for every ounce of your listening ability...

IT'S FOR GLORY!!!

Now enter