yep, mark those calendars. forming middle of coral sea with westward movement

hmm. scratch that.

ecmwf going for forming east off cairns. moving west to south west in towards the coast and then doing a SE run parallel to the coast as a cat 1 or 2

time will tell but a likely scenario. might bust out the cyclone gear.

tides at burrum look sensational around that time.

....... well no cyclone Justin but looks like you have the wind right anyway !

Think I'd rather the SE'ly that's predicted than a cyclone......
Looks like a good week coming up. My name's not Jinxy!!
Just shame it'll be poor tides during the day, maybe a trip to Cootharaba could be the go?

still good chance of cyclone. there is a low way way out in coral sea that's being watched. vanuato met has cyclone chances at medium. Fiji mentions it in their bulletins but the bom has basically said there are to many lows out there to know which one stands the best if any chance. next 48 hours will be interesting.

some models have the low deepening and shooting away SE like that last one did and other have it stalling after a few days and heading west so anything is possible. might not even form as another option.

the wind we are getting this weekend is not the same system, it starts off because of a trough from down south but then the wind keeps going because of the area of low pressure in the coral sea and the ridging down south. that then forms deep lows that may or may not become cyclone

the coral sea is primed at the moment for a cyclone.

I'm with you to a point greg, I'd like the wind and not the cyclonic rains as well but the wind she pumps when the spinny things comes along. even an east coast low would keep me satisfied.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu's Area (12S to 23S and 160E to 175E)




Tropical Cyclone five-day outlook for Vanuatu Area (12.0S to 23.0S and 160.0E to 175.0E) issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:00 am Friday, 24 January 2014

Existing Cyclones in the Vanuatu Area:
Nil

Potential Cyclones:
A low pressure [1000hPa] is located at 13.9S164.8E at 231800UTC. This is about 270KM west of Banks group. The system will take a west southwest track in the next two days. The potential for the low pressure to become a Tropical Cyclone low to moderate.

Likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone in the Vanuatu Area:
Friday: Low to moderate
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate

NOTES: Chance of the event occurring for each day.
Low: 10 -30%
Moderate: 40 - 60%
High: 70 ??? 100%

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 23 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 26 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon is expected to strengthen early next week, however it is difficult
to target specific areas for development at this stage.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday Very low
Saturday Very low
Sunday Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

things might be starting to heat up out in the coral sea.

The JTWC has issued its latest analysis on this system:

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 232227Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.


the bom are now going for a moderate chance of TC development on Monday.

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 24 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Monday 27 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends from Papua New Guinea to the Solomon Islands, with
an area of low pressure located south of the Solomon Islands. The monsoon is
expected to strengthen early next week. It is likely that with the
intensification of the monsoon trough, a tropical system will develop, however
the uncertainty with its position and movement is high.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday Very low
Sunday Low
Monday Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

NRL track map of low. you need google earth.

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/test/kml/TC/docs/2014_SHEM_99P.kml

sat image

always good to compare the model forecast map from a week ago posted above with the actual resulting map. pretty close stuff.

link to satellite image.

schwing!

www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsat.html