looks like the SE'rs will be ramping up now. joy joy!!!!

heads up for a spinny thing in NE coral sea around 17th, slowly intensifying with a SW movement. time will tell.

Come on (non destructive) cyclone season!

heads up!!!!

exciting times ahead. "maybe"

computer models are persisting with spinny thing.

ecmwf model has it washing out north of noosa on the 20th as a strong low 35-40knot winds ESE.
gfs model has it brushing the coast and heading to NZ as a low with 25-30knot winds SE

if it does eventuate (fingers crossed) and cross north of noosa that mean the wello bank will be cranking and tides look good......

or will it be ripped apart????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

GFS



ECMWF

some one please ramp up the highs down south........please.....now looking like it may form to far off the coast.

bom outlook.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. However, the monsoon
trough is situated across the northern Coral Sea and is expected to develop
further over the next few days. A tropical low is expected to form along the
monsoon trough, near the Solomon Islands and strengthen later this week. The
developing tropical low is expected to remain well offshore of the Queensland
coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday Very low
Thursday Moderate
Friday Moderate

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Gestalt said..

some one please ramp up the highs down south........please.....now looking like it may form to far off the coast.

bom outlook.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. However, the monsoon
trough is situated across the northern Coral Sea and is expected to develop
further over the next few days. A tropical low is expected to form along the
monsoon trough, near the Solomon Islands and strengthen later this week. The
developing tropical low is expected to remain well offshore of the Queensland
coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday Very low
Thursday Moderate
Friday Moderate

tropical lows good luck trying to predict where they go

yeah anything can happen and usually does.

the models are pretty good these days. just need some luck.

Wow Gestalt, it's pretty professional. Are you a meteorologist?

ANyone else used wunderground before? Cheers for getting me in on that Gestalt, a very cool forecaster. How accurate do you find it? It appears boms interactive weather map goes by the GSF model....

hi winddragon, nope I am not a meteorologist. I actually struggled to spell it :-) I've been using the models for a long time now so go to them around this time of year in the hope some very strong winds will be coming at some point.

the low I posted above looks to be doing it's own thing currently. you can check out the satellite here. it's still unorganised but should be getting stronger over the next few days.
www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

the way these things usually work is a strong cyclone will always go poleward if no steering patterns are at play. for it to come onto the coast what we need is a strong ridge down south blocking the poleward decent and pushing it W or SW. unfortunately the high is really weak. the models are looking pretty good over the next few weeks so anything is possible at this point. lots of action in the monsoonal trough.

hi sailcoothara.

bom used to use ecmwf for their longrange forcast and then switch to the bom models for 2 days out or less. there used to be a reference on the model page as to the source. not sure if that's still the case as about a year ago the bom introduced a new computer model based on ecmwf. so they might have their own thing now.

ecmwf I find to be really good for lows. although the low may not do exactly what the model is predicting it is usually not to far off.

ok, stumbled onto to this on another website. it is wicked!

earth.nullschool.net/

Select to expand quote

Gestalt said..

ok, stumbled onto to this on another website. it is wicked!

earth.nullschool.net/

Cool thanks for sharing Gestalt