copied from a copy of a copy online from bom in townsville i think?


DECEMBER
This month will see some tropical lows/cyclones from the Gulf to the Coral Sea pressure gradient is low in density. The weather will be hotter than normal with some heavy rain inland and flooding on the coast.This month could see two cyclones with the first being in the beginning of the month. The second will be around 20th - 31st which will be very dangerous for the east coast. Victoria and New South Wales will have very hot weather as the mercury could reach 45 degrees.


i better clean up the high wind gear.

yer yer

lol,

well i'm clinging to hope! why not. swings and round abouts and usually a long spell of no wind is followed up by lots of wind.

i hope!

We live in hope

yes, tomorrow i hope also....

only problem with cyclones is they usually are preceeded by 2 weeks of no wind.

taken from the BOM site - (Looks good to me )

ps. We are the Eastern region, sound obvious but thought I would clarify......




Summary: Above average tropical cyclone activity expected for the Australian region

The outlook suggests that the coming tropical cyclone season is likely to have:
- a higher than average number of tropical cyclones over the full Australian region,
- a higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the Western region,
- an average to above average number of tropical cyclones in the Northern region,
- a higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region.


Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones

For the full Australian region, there is a high degree of confidence that the total number of tropical cyclones will be above average (see Table 1). The forecast values from the two models (20-22) are significantly higher than the long-term average value of 12.

Forecast values for the 2010/11 Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) for the four main tropical cyclone regions and the northwest WA sub-region (105°E to 130°E).

# 1. is the Region
# 2. is the Chance of more TCs than average
# 3. is the Likely number of TCs (average number)
# 4. is their Confidence (LEPS skill1)

1. Australian region 2. 98% 3. 20-22 (12) 4. High (46%)
1. Western region 2. 93% 3. 11-12 (7) 4. High (31%)
1. Northern region 2. 67% 3. 5 (4) 4. Low (3%)
1. Eastern region 2. 87% 3. 6-7 (4) 4. Moderate (21%)
1. Northwest WA 2. 75% 3. 7-8 (6) 4. Low (7%)

The likely number of tropical cyclones is indicative only. It is expected that the total number of tropical cyclones will be in the vicinity of the values listed, and not necessarily within the given range. The values are the most likely number of tropical cyclones forecast by two models.

Regional features

The largest increase in tropical cyclone numbers is expected to occur in the Western region, where 11-12 tropical cyclones are forecast (4-5 more than the average value of 7 tropical cyclones).

For the Northern region, an average to higher than average number of tropical cyclones is expected with 5 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones). However, as the statistical model used to produce this forecast has low skill in this region, this prediction should be used with some caution.

The Eastern region is expected to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones, with about 6-7 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones).


The outlook for tropical cyclones in the area from 105°E to 130°E, where tropical cyclones can impact upon coastal WA communities, shows a 75% chance of above average tropical cyclone numbers for the 2010/11 season. However, forecast confidence for this region is relatively low.


What do ya think

sounds good!

can't see any forming anytime soon and getting near us. the highs down south are still sitting up over nsw. i would have thought they would need to drop down a bit further south?

nah.... probably not for a while...

I'm heading off to WA at start of dec for a few weeks of gnaraloo action so for once I'm not really concerned about wind over here in the coming month....

I'll be hoping for wind over there!

swirly thingy on the radar. not in the bom's area yet but moving west.

www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

17s 161E

With a bit of luck there will be just enough to break though Bribie and create a new wave spot....also clean out those trees at Golden beach

i really, really hope so!

that would put caloundra back on the windsurfing map for sure. it'd be just like the old days. i'm sure the council would come up wih some way of buggering everything up again.

if a cyclone does break through i'll be there every weekend

that low on the satelite i posted is nice to watch but probably will die at some stage. fingers crossed it survives!

p.s. 50m and counting
www.nearmap.com/au/en

So cyclone Tasha ticks on of the boxes for a cyclone.... Still 5-6 more....

Does anyone think i will come down far enough south to give us some good wind for the last week of the year??

Please

looks like we might get some wind.

first week of jan is getting some interest from the models.