Is anyone predicting wind this weekend? Manly/VP

to hard to call..... it's a little unusual because the highs down south are being hampered by the low out near fiji as it moves west.

usually when we get a low in the coral sea around rockhampton it means good winds to the south as the low leans against the highs moving from west to east near vic.

this one is odd as all of the wind is to the north of the system. seems to be the models are struggling with the complex setup in the coral sea.

can't help but "guess" the further north you go the better the wind will be but that is a guess.

Thanks Justin I will be waiting by the bay praying for wind

yes, i am predicting 12.3 to 17.2 knot S to SE breezes at wellington point for saturday with a 74.03% probability. Slightly stronger at manly but dying out earlier then wello.

Sunday will be 13.7 to.18.6 knot SSW swinging to SSE at wellington point with a 19.86% probability. VP will be an option however there will be some jelly fish near the boat moorings and a patch of weed extending 62m E to W 70m of Thompsons beach.

I hope this helps.

Ha. Surely you don't have enough significant figures in your prediction. Does your probability also include the likelihood of direct jelly fish attack? Vicious little critters they are.

Mmm - to much coffee this morning

Hi Bruised,
The probability for a direct jelly-fish attack is a little trickier as it needs to take into account the individual involved.
But since there is a demand i ran the calculations based on what i know about 14 specific sailors.
Probability is 5.2% with a population standard deviation of 1.2.

Yes yes I see.
The melon wearing cat did mention the odd wind to the north of the complex system in the coral sea.
Undoubtedly contributing to the high probability of a jelly fish attack on the rather small population of 14 known sailors.

Does that mean the jelly fish also know the sailors?
it raises the issue of repeat jelly fish attacks on the same unsuspecting sailor(s) most likely a repeat offender?

Reds arrows = no wind Sunday

ahh i should have been clearer, my calculations are based on the risk profile for a 14 sailor sample set. Which is pretty much 50% of QLD's sailing population so it is statistically relevant.

Jelly fish aint to bright and can only distinguish between a maximum of three sailors.

jelly fish bring out the turtles which bring out the tiger sharks which bring out the super fast waterstart tricks.

just sayin that's all.

burrum looks good today

the more you guys talk about it the less it gets

are you implying that there is an inverse relationship to the number of posts and the strength of the wind?

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vando said...

the more you guys talk about it the less it gets

I am not talking about the wind. ooops

yes we control the weather. [}:)]

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boardboy said...

are you implying that there is an inverse relationship to the number of posts and the strength of the wind?

Either that or someone has brought some new gear.
The number of days without wind is directly proportional to the cost of new gear

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stanly said...

boardboy said...

are you implying that there is an inverse relationship to the number of posts and the strength of the wind?

Either that or someone has brought some new gear.
The number of days without wind is directly proportional to the cost of new gear

Well stop breaking masts Stanly

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Haggar said...

stanly said...

boardboy said...

are you implying that there is an inverse relationship to the number of posts and the strength of the wind?

Either that or someone has brought some new gear.
The number of days without wind is directly proportional to the cost of new gear

Well stop breaking masts Stanly

I'm sure I had my fingers crossed when I got that mast

yeah it's stanly's fault.....


speaking of jinxing it.

it's probably a little early but are we allowed to talk about the 15th of feb

Think we need to start up a card tower building series which happens every weekend with a water front location of choice.

Wind doesn't look to good for today here at Wello.

aww don't tell me that ha ha. I'm a keen beginner who lives on the Gold Coast. Was at Wellington Point yesterday and the wind died down to nothing :-(. So no good for today either?

I'm a beginner who just learnt to waterstart. I had a great time last weekend but i cut up my foot and had to cut my day short. so im real keen to get out there and try again.

cool, yesterday was my first go so can't do much at all ha ha. Keen as though, hopefully tomorrow or Monday will be alright, because i fly back to work on Tuesday for 4 weeks.

Wind has picked up a bit here at Wello. I'm heading down to manly after lunch and i will give an update then.
Fingers crossed

winds pumping here now, not sure whether to rig the 5.3 or the 4.7.

what sizes are you on?

went out at Manly about 3:30 for an hour. Got planning in the straps a few times with 125L and 7.8. Very enjoyable, relaxing cruising around. Would have been a good afternoon to take the kids down and teach them to windsurf some more, Maybe tomorrow afternoon if it's like today.