I got a message from Hardy yesterday asking me if I was ready to call Friday at the PiT yet.

Well, I am nearly ready to call this coming Friday as EPIC, but not quite. There are still some nagging variations in the major forecast models. It looks like the early morning is pretty reliable, but I am uncertain about the potential for an afternoon session.

Low tide is at around 8.30am. So the best tidal conditions will be from dawn until about 9.30-10am. Once tha tide is rushing in againt the wind it may produce significant, and usually dangerous, whoopdedoo's (standing waves), although the tidal difference in the morning is not severe.

Windguru (GFS) suggests that it will be EPIC at that time, but possibly too tight (too South) for the afternoon session as the tide drops again after mid afternoon.




Predictwinds models show the differences that exist in the predicted directions. The Predictwind models (PWG and PWE) predict the winds to be too far South, except for the late afternoon session. The ECMWF model suggests it will be Epic all day!:





On the other hand, The BoM Meteye model also suggests that the Morning session will be best, and suggests the wind will die around mid morning.





Also highlighted here in comparison with the GFS model:






Watch this space for updates.

Have you been working on your sailing fitness?

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sboardcrazy said..
Have you been working on your sailing fitness?

Haha nah we're all going to die.....

Wednesday update: I'm now calling it ON!

The models seem to agree better now and it is looking solid, especially for the morning session.

Windguru: Still looks great for morning session, Dawn 'til Mid morning, or as long as the tide is good. The forecasts are all saying the wind direction will be around 240 degrees, which may be a fraction too South for best speeds, but it could be spot on as well. Looking a bit more promising for an afternoon session as well but it too might be a bit too south for best speeds.




predictwind models now show a better wind angle and suggest it will stay in all day. ECMWF is somewhere in between on wind strength pattern and the same on angel:


Meteye now agrees more with GFS model and has the wind hanging in a bit longer:






here is the Fishranger graphs of the BoM and GFS models:

Thursday Morning Update:

Still looking good, although I am slightly worried the wind will be a bit too South for best speeds now. Models all say mostly around 240, but some are saying 230 at times. It looks like the wind will hang in all day with 20-30 still there late in the afternoon but then it will be a bit more SW. That is actually ideal for fun blasting up and down.

Im just going to show the Fishranger graph of the BoM hi resolution model now as this is probably the most accurate and reliable at this short range..

Well, my worries were realised. Yep. It was too much SW, which made the run far too tight. It was blowing 35-40 knots to strength was not any sort of problem, just the angle. I had two runs, struggling, feeling out of control on the 4.7m, @39 peaks and then gave up, as i could clearly see that unless the wind swung back 10-15 degrees more West, there was little hope of me going any faster. Maybe I am getting wiser in my old age?

Kato persisted on a 5m for 12 -15 runs and managed one 42 peak and some 40's, but he was clearly limited by running too tight to the wind as well.

The wind strength was there for at least mid 40's speeds if the angle was better.

We might get another session this arvo?

Those sand dunes look really big...

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mathew said..
Those sand dunes look really big...

Its just the magnification the the long camera lens!

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sailquik said..

mathew said..
Those sand dunes look really big...

Its just the magnification the the long camera lens!

do you sail back too? long walk if not

Nice pics Daffy. Those dunes are huge!

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BSN101 said..

sailquik said..

mathew said..
Those sand dunes look really big...

Its just the magnification the the long camera lens!

do you sail back too? long walk if not

If its an epic day with a WSW where you are very overpowered going back up wind you walk most of the way. Days like today I walked a few 100m till I could sail back to the start. I found it easier today to jibe at the start point and run into the course at speed than the usual start from the beach. Happy with a 21...Alpha on the speed board

The weather has gone MAD!
There is another wind storm on the end of the Windguru forecast period in a week! What?? This is the sort of thing we should have seen in October and it just didnt happen! It's about 2 months too late this year!
The weather has gone MAD!

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mathew said..
Those sand dunes look really big...

This is the issue. I think even on the windy days, speeds over 45 are becoming almost impossible due to the turbulence.

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kato said..Happy with a 21...Alpha on the speed board

BSN101 said..

sailquik said..

mathew said..
Those sand dunes look really big...

Its just the magnification the the long camera lens!

do you sail back too? long walk if not

Come on mate, you should mange a 26 alpha on a speed board! I did that on the sinker at Inverloch in front of the angling club on a sunny day - with 5kg of lead on my back.