This is not the first time by a long chalk.

MetEye says "get down to Wellington Point (Qld) for a late afternoon sail" (15-20kt @4pm)

Marine & Ocean forecast wind says "don't bother, keep the boss happy" (10-15kt @4pm)


Anyone notice that this happens often in their spots? Its annoying for those of us who work and live a bit of a drive from the coast, relying more on BOM to make decisions.

By 5pm we will know who was right.

Really need more info to interpret the BOM chart.
What does the wind look like at 1pm and 7pm?
Is the wind frontal or a Seabreeze?
What does the isobar chart look like?
The chart as is looks pretty marginal and without the additional info I'd say don't bother.

I am informed that Meteye uses the BoM's high resolution short term model. (ACCESS R, 12km, run 3 hourly and forecasting to 72 hours (3 days))
It is possible that the Marine and Ocean chart is derived from their longer term, lower resolution model.(ACCESS G, 25km, 6 hourly to 240 hours (10 days)

www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/about/about_access.shtml

However, it does look a bit iffy. I agree one would need some other data and knowledge to make a reasonable decision.

I suffer the same dilema at GB. Usually Meteye is more accurate for me. A little more detailed as where the wind gets into. I look at SB,BOM, Meteye n Coastal watch. Today already has 10-12SE. Thats just looking out my window at Marcoola. Left the gear in the car 'just in case'.

Meteye and Willyweather forecast are similar and presumably use the same model. Sesbreeze often is different, and hence presumably uses a different model. Willyweather and Meteye tend to be more accurate for long-term forecasts. I don't get excited until the model forecasts converge.

Select to expand quote

John340 said..
Meteye and Willyweather forecast are similar and presumably use the same model. Seabreeze often is different, and hence presumably uses a different model. Willyweather and Meteye tend to be more accurate for long-term forecasts. I don't get excited until the model forecasts converge.

Bugger!! I decided to keep working and now it's blowing 20 knots. Think I might just do what I always do from now on and go anyway if it shows promise!!
work will be there tomorrow the wind may not