Agree width of board and sail size choice determine fin size range.
My personal preference is not to go to big sail and fin as sometimes the biggest sail needs a bigger fin. But when a smaller sail and fin can be pumped and more efficient to go faster than bigger sail weight and ability to control easily (and not fight it).
I like speed, manourability as preference for small gain in aspects if consistency of bigger and heavier sail size.
That said your 12knots may not have as much power/planning ability as someone "miles" apart.
Difference between Maui and Auckland as gusty breeze needs higher average velocity. And always easier in cross shore vs on shore

Looks onshore with swell this weekend