El Nino

A week ago
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philn
philn
1109 posts
1109 posts
16 May 2026 11:43pm
El Nino is supposed to be really strong this year. Ocean temperatures in some parts of the world are already at record highs.
What will El Nino do to the wind in different parts of the world?
Will there be anywhere in the world that might have better wind conditions than normal because of El Nino, or is El Nino typically bad for windsurfing wind everywhere?
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14953 posts
QLD, 14953 posts
17 May 2026 8:40am
Seems to kill the local seabreeze here. The ocean gets hot so the differential is less to the land.
AI.Dave
AI.Dave
TAS
159 posts
TAS, 159 posts
17 May 2026 9:38am
i have been lying awake every night worrying about this ?
So for tassie (and maybe southern parts of Vic, SA, WA) my understanding is that the influence of the roaring 40's weakens. The band of westerlies gets pushed further south.
This may mean fewer of the westerly patterns which bring high rainfall to the west coast of tas and create prolonged periods (up to 10 days) of strong NW to SW wind
But what i dont understand is how far south the westerlies will go, maybe tassie will still be in the midst of them? Or maybe we'll just see fewer frontal systems?
Then the other thing is el nino means warmer sea temps off our east coast which can intensify storms. So perhaps we'll see short sharp windy periods? Which is kind of what is happening here at the moment, light N and NE winds for a few days followed by strong SW change.
Also the BOM say that the strength of el nino doesnt necessarily manifest in dryer conditions. ie. a weak el nino can bring drought, a strong el nino might not, there is not a good correlation. Anyway we'll find out in a few months





Tardy
Tardy
5337 posts
5337 posts
17 May 2026 9:19am
IT hasn't stopped blowing from the east and SE here in the South Pacific for the past 6 weeks 20-30 knots most days ,not a good direction for sailing for us ,not good for the fishing boats ,we are eating steak now ?
bring on the S W wind please .it certainly is not dry .we had nothing (sw wind ) last year , lets hope it is different this year .sea water temperatures are up for this time of year . 22 c but early days .
Lets hope for a windy winter guys .
sboardcrazy
sboardcrazy
NSW
8333 posts
NSW, 8333 posts
17 May 2026 4:00pm
philn said..
El Nino is supposed to be really strong this year. Ocean temperatures in some parts of the world are already at record highs.
What will El Nino do to the wind in different parts of the world?
Will there be anywhere in the world that might have better wind conditions than normal because of El Nino, or is El Nino typically bad for windsurfing wind everywhere?


Better around our area..more seabreezes . Newcastle / Central coast NSW.?
Worse bushfires and heat though..?
KJ
KJ
VIC
162 posts
KJ KJ
VIC, 162 posts
17 May 2026 8:25pm
Invercargill at the bottom of the south Island of NZ is the best place to be in a el nino year, gets hammered.
Its too far south to be affected if the westerly flow drops a bit south.
Western vic does well in a el nino year typically, with westerly patterns ( cross shore), like in 19/20 and 06/07. However at 38 degrees south SAM (southern angular mode) can affect them, making them drift abit to south and we miss it (NW tassie firing)
It would be interesting to hear the perspective from the tassie sailers




AI.Dave
AI.Dave
TAS
159 posts
TAS, 159 posts
17 May 2026 9:51pm
KJ see above for my 10 cents worth on tas. quick answer, unsure
Traditionally Tassie gets consistent westerlies, most of our usual wave spots work in SW or W wind. What we have seen over the last couple of years is a shift in weather patterns - still plenty of wind but from different directions.
Last year it was the polar vortex, from Aug to Dec we got smashed with constant W and NW systems. For 2 months, BOM were issuing severe weather warnings on average every second day and we were regularly seeing speeds exceeding 50kts
Then this year la nina has brought consistent NE winds and east coast swell. Moderate but steady.
Upshot of all this is that our goto wave locations have gone off the boil. Normally places like Low Head and Marrawah can be sailed several times a month, for the last year I've only had a handful of sessions there.
But on the flip side new locations along the north and east coasts which are rarely sailed have taken over. Probably sailing DTL conditions more than ever, and its been awesome scoring sessions in parts of the state that we never used to bother about
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