Have you noticed how poor the forecasts seam to be getting?
I have just come back from an evening surf and the conditions were nothing like the forecast. The forecast was for 1 to 1.5 meters waves but the waves were well overhead. Lucky I took the time to look first.
Do forecasters go to the beach?

Every break is different. There's always going to be a difference in height at different breaks, especially depending on the swell direction. For example, considering you're from NSW, I remember watching a vid in which the person talking said there was too much of a certain swell direction for a certain spot (named after a collective term for a group who claim ownership of something) to make it surfable without causing injury. The same applies Manly, a spot that requires a more easterly swell direction. It's got nothing to do with the forecasters; what their research is as close to fact as possible. It's the underlying bathymetry of the surf spot that dictates the potential size/shape.

Go do some research.

How good is local knowledge.......

Ah, People are so spoilt these days. Live forecasts from the cutting edge of technology available 24 hrs a day straight to your phone. The operative word here is FORECAST.

I know your going to roll your eyes back and say here we go again like my kids do, but when I started surfing all we had was the ABC news service. I spent many years working on fishing vessels and used to amaze me how accurate the old timers were just by looking at the sea state and the sky.

All that is a dead art now. Modern forecasting has evolved and it is bloody marvellous. Almost never wrong. YOU JUST NEED TO KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET IT!

I was a bit surprised today when I had a look at Newy beach how big it was. The swell size had stayed at about 1.3 M but the swell period had lengthened significantly through the day. Makes a big difference. I just posted this on another thread, have a look atwww.surfline.com/surfology/surfology_forecast2.cfm

Understanding weather conditions is complicated. fortunately there is heaps of info online and a bit of study you can have it sussed.

Great link Gwendy, super interesting.

Really interesting read!

So learning your local spots deep water 'bathymetry' comes from experience over time right?

Also I always thought that some breaks worked better on a shorter Period swell, but that article seems to say that longer = bigger always? Or am I not getting it