How is it that I've been going to Cott for 25 years and never noticed any difference?

Maybe cause the long term trend of rise is relatively small and the daily variation from tides is big, hard to see a pattern when another one is on top of it

Maybe because WA is 30 years in the past still?

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DaveSandan said..
Maybe because WA is 30 years in the past still?

Really?!!!
That's it I'm moving to the west coast.
See ya boys!!!

Spoke to an older local down here who has photos of Bells for over 80 yrs a little while back...

He says the sea level here hasn't risen one cm in his lifetime... He said the biggest change at Bells happened when they built the carpark.

A few years ago I found a triangle of 3 small stainless steel fittings embedded in a rock ledge just back from the high tide mark near my local beach - had no idea what they were until one day I spotted a group of uni students who had set up a small theodolite on the fittings and they were busy taking readings. Turns out this was a longitudinal coastal rock erosion study that had been going since 1980. They said that erosion was on average 1/2 cm per year

Claiming 8 to 9 inches here www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#:~:text=Sea%20level%20is%20measured%20by,of%20manual%20and%20automatic%20sensors.

Still waiting for some reefs to get deep enough to surf .The sea level apocalypse is really over hyped
and a problem that's adaptable the Dutch seem to manage.

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Rango said..
problem that's adaptable the Dutch seem to manage.

But for this, you need to anticipate (and spend money decades in advance), something that more and more politicians - and voters - seem unable of, especially the populists.
"But while the sand blew across the coast, the tide and storm surge never reached the town of Scheveningen's infrastructure, thanks to interventions made a couple of decades ago in anticipation of sea level rise and extreme weather events like this."

news.mongabay.com/2023/03/sea-level-rise-looms-even-for-the-best-prepared-country-on-earth/

@lindz and tango, You will find that the people living in places like the Solomon Islands disagree with your well researched and thought out opinion.

www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02954-1

www.sciencealert.com/pacific-island-nation-expected-to-sink-is-getting-bigger

www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36171-2

Always been the case.

humanprogress.org/floating-on-hyperbole-the-new-york-times-take-on-low-lying-islands/

Maybe stop swallowing media alarmism.

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theSeb said..
@lindz and tango, You will find that the people living in places like the Solomon Islands disagree with your well researched and thought out opinion.

www.researchgate.net/publication/344075940_Sinking_Islands_Drowned_Logic_Climate_Change_and_Community-Based_Adaptation_Discourses_in_Solomon_Islands

And I never said it was,nt a problem .

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Rango said..
humanprogress.org/floating-on-hyperbole-the-new-york-times-take-on-low-lying-islands/

Maybe stop swallowing media alarmism.

Warning: The Human Progress website is a project of the Cato Institute, a well-known libertarian think tank. (eg. the self-serving misinformation peddled by Peter Thiel & Elon Musk)
It is a propaganda machine, not a scientific publication.Also, just look at how tides really work to understand how the geography can make tides huge or tiny, or happening once or twice a day depending on the place on earth (picture the tide bouncing against the irregular edges of a basin). The same factors are at play with the tiny average raises due to global warming, easily amplifying or negating it depending on the location.

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colas said..

Rango said..
humanprogress.org/floating-on-hyperbole-the-new-york-times-take-on-low-lying-islands/

Maybe stop swallowing media alarmism.

Warning: The Human Progress website is a project of the Cato Institute, a well-known libertarian think tank. (eg. the self-serving misinformation peddled by Peter Thiel & Elon Musk)
It is a propaganda machine, not a scientific publication.Also, just look at how tides really work to understand how the geography can make tides huge or tiny, or happening once or twice a day depending on the place on earth (picture the tide bouncing against the irregular edges of a basin). The same factors are at play with the tiny average raises due to global warming, easily amplifying or negating it depending on the location.

So is the New york times that the article references also a warning.The New York times article is based on the scientific publications posted above but pay walled so didn't link it.If anyone will be able to innovate anything in the energy sector it,ll be the likes of Elon not your government.

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Rango said..

colas said..

Rango said..
humanprogress.org/floating-on-hyperbole-the-new-york-times-take-on-low-lying-islands/

Maybe stop swallowing media alarmism.

Warning: The Human Progress website is a project of the Cato Institute, a well-known libertarian think tank. (eg. the self-serving misinformation peddled by Peter Thiel & Elon Musk)
It is a propaganda machine, not a scientific publication.Also, just look at how tides really work to understand how the geography can make tides huge or tiny, or happening once or twice a day depending on the place on earth (picture the tide bouncing against the irregular edges of a basin). The same factors are at play with the tiny average raises due to global warming, easily amplifying or negating it depending on the location.

So is the New york times that the article references also a warning.The New York times article is based on the scientific publications posted above but pay walled so didn't link it.If anyone will be able to innovate anything in the energy sector it,ll be the likes of Elon not your government.

Mate, I don't even know what to say. It's too late for some clearly and sadly.Elon is not going to buy you a pony. He will happily send you to Mars though to work as a slave in his factories eventually. That's not really a solution.

So are pacific islands on average growing or sinking
According to the research I posted .And you didn't read the paper on the Solomon's did you citing other reasons for degradation other than just sea level rise,problems are always more nuanced .
The bureaucrats at climate summits ain't going to buy you a pony either more likely ban you from having one.
apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
Guess what ,the Maldives are still there .

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Rango said..
So are pacific islands on average growing or sinking
According to the research I posted .And you didn't read the paper on the Solomon's did you citing other reasons for degradation other than just sea level rise,problems are always more nuanced .
The bureaucrats at climate summits ain't going to buy you a pony either.
apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
Guess what ,the Maldives are still there .

I agree, but when it's all boiled down people will believe what they think is right and eventually they'll see it for what it. People have been fudging numbers, statistics etc for ever to manipulate for their own gains.

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Rango said..

So is the New york times that the article references also a warning.

Ah ah, you changed your link to point to the actual study :-) :-)

... but you did not realize how the cato institute misrepresented ("lied" in common parlance) the study.

The study says that for some low-altitude islands, the raise of sea level is real but for their specific case other factors are also more dangerous to them in the short term. Something every scientist agree: yearly weather fluctuations are more visible than the rate of climate change, and that's why the Dutch planned for it decades in advance.

But the Cato institute misrepresented it as "climate change is not real". Just like the idiots claiming "It is cold in February so there is no climate change", or the fool that looks at the finger but not the moon.

PS: Musk never invented or started anything. He just funded real teams of engineers that already did all the innovations (and that fled when "Musk became the richest fascist in the world" (Mary Trump), plus he used their connection to siphon state money, the perfect definition of "The Swamp" that Trump pretended to fight.

No the article didn't say climate change is not real but more of a problem .And it is true that for years low lying islands have been the poster child of doom in the media .And I did post another study that says that whatever is happening now to these islands is not unprecedented in the last 2 millennia.
www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0503-7

www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36171-2

If you actually read the study, you can see that they say "records from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans show variations less than 0.25?m and no significant negative excursions."

What the study shows is a localized decrease in the Maldives islands.

This is what I said before. Local factors can shadow long term tendencies. And this is why on climate, you cannot rely on anecdotes.

You are looking at the Maldives tree without looking at the forest of the whole oceans.

we have shown that the magnitude of recent island movements has been dwarfed by those that have occurred over the previous centuries.

Read that bit

Sea level fall during little ice age 4-500 years ago bound to be a rise after that topped off with human caused warming.

It's funny how you don,t even get the usefulness of these studies in terms of the best ways of adaption for residents on these islands.

I'm not sure what argument is but again I think it's clear that climate change is a long term trend that is expressed unevenly across space, so you get deviations and a single individuals anecdtotes reflect this variation plus their observation error. On Stab podcast I learned about Dunning Kruger effect

GO COLAS. Nothing like facts and a little digging to keep it in perspective. I was about to look into the article but you did it. cheers

Chatgtp summary for those who do not want to read the unabridged article:

The article investigates the impact of global environmental changes on the physical transformation of coral reef islands, specifically over the last half-century, and compares this with changes observed before the industrial era. The research focuses on a Maldivian reef island and utilizes a combination of radiometric dating, geological analysis, and remote sensing techniques to examine the island's dynamics across millennial, centennial, and decadal timescales. The study finds that while significant changes have occurred in the past fifty years-such as 40-meter positional shifts-these are not unprecedented compared to changes that occurred over the last 1,500 years. Historical evidence suggests that the island experienced positional shifts of up to 200 meters, alongside substantial alterations in size, shape, and beach levels.
The research emphasizes the value of a multi-temporal approach to understand the dynamic nature of reef islands, providing critical insights for developing future adaptation strategies that can address long-term human security concerns in island nations facing ongoing environmental changes.

Key Findings:
Recent island changes (e.g., +/-40m shifts) are not unprecedented compared to larger positional shifts (+/-200m) in the past 1,500 years.
Historical evidence shows that reef islands have undergone substantial changes in size, shape, and beach levels, highlighting their long-term dynamic nature.
The use of multiple methods, including geological and remote sensing data, allows a deeper understanding of these changes, which can inform adaptation strategies for human habitation on these islands.

Implications:
The findings suggest that while climate change poses challenges to island nations, the historical adaptability and physical dynamism of these islands might provide resilience if appropriately managed. Understanding these long-term dynamics is crucial for creating informed adaptation and land-use strategies that take into account both short-term environmental changes and longer historical trends.