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Area10 said..Hoppo3228 said..hilly said..
Not sure the new market is going gangbusters at the moment either. A few retailers getting out over here.
True for pretty much all retail at the moment. Not just SUP. And it's going to get worse.
Why is it going to get worse? Here in the UK we have the upcoming Brexit that is depressing the economy (and will likely lead to full-blown economic recession for decades). But why are things looking gloomy for Australia?
Gonna go a little deep here (but not too much):
Aus is basically the only other advanced economy that is heading towards a recession.
There are lots of factors for this:
- Political forecast growth for Aus is for a strong China and that has completely fallen away recently.
- We are the most indebted and we have the highest home prices in the world (relative to income).
- Recent tightening of lending standards for investors/buyers has completely cooled the real estate market (which was the only thing keeping the economy going the last couple of years). Many stand to lose a lot once negative equity begins to bite and panic selling begins.
- Living standards are falling sharply in Melbourne and Sydney, mostly due to ludicrous levels of immigration.
- We have had basically zero income growth for the average wage earner for the last 10 years (mostly to the crazy immigration levels).
- Borrowing costs will rise sharply as will day to day goods once the dollar begins free fall. And with less disposable income - the first thing that stops selling is discretionary goods.
There are a lot of other reasons for why i'm so pessimistic. But this is a SUP forum so I won't dig myself into a hole I can't get out of.
The red herring with consumer goods is:
Massive changes in consumer habits to which most retailers/manufacturers cannot keep up with.
I can only think of 1 consumer item that you buy today (other than property) that may appreciate over time. A Rolex. Sure the odd collectable car will come about, but overall 2nd hand goods are worthless.
I bought a $14k Colnago bike 2 years ago. Barely rode it. Couldn't get $3500 for it second hand. Could have been sold as new in a shop. 50-60% off for a 2nd hand Sunova... I would have dreamed to get that on my bike.
Apple is the only other company I can think of really, that totally controls how they retail. They launch a product on a Thursday worldwide and you can buy it Friday morning basically anywhere.