So it's the middle of November. Ocean reef wind has had some good days but Woodies, Safety Bay is not living up to their reputations. Wind has been 12-15kn, 13-18knots. The papers have called a 'godzilla El Nino", as the papers do, yet an average El Nino means the pacific ocean heats up 0.8 deg., this year it is 3.

The ocean water south of the river is like a bath. I dont have any info on the Leewin current, but I bet its not flushing past Rotto. please correct me.

The warm water heats up and creates a localised humid trough, so south of city beach is getting so much moisture in the air..
Guys are struggling on a 10.

My prediction for this season is first of all if youre not kitesurfing on waves, get a bigger kite. Most of January -Feb, we will be troughed out, December, 10 days in green arrows, the rest, mostly yellow. March will be better than feb this year in terms for good seabreezes.

Qld, Bali winds dont pack a punch, nor does the ocean south orf the river ATM.

Any other weathermen out there?

should be nice and quiet for me and the Zypher then

depends how desperate you are, there are many days here where its sw-w-weak southerly's, just wait it out the two kite quiver in Geraldton is all you need,

December will be cranking. What does Leeuwin Current not flushing past Rotto mean? Have you actually looked at recorded sea temperature data?

During periods of El Nino, the Leeuwin current is weaker so it might not even make Cape Leeuwin and the sea temps won't be as high. La Nina brings a stronger, warmer current. 2011 was a perfect example in Perth and whilst there were many negatives, it bought loads of macs, wahoo and small black marlin off Perth and even as far down as Cape Nat. From memory the sea surface temps were about 26 degrees during Feb and March. Probably not good for kiting.

Remember El Nino also brings a hot dry summer and if the SST's are cooler it'll mean we will get stronger seabreezes so you can pack away the 17's and 19's

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dave...... said..
So it's the middle of November. Ocean reef wind has had some good days but Woodies, Safety Bay is not living up to their reputations. Wind has been 12-15kn, 13-18knots. The papers have called a 'godzilla El Nino", as the papers do, yet an average El Nino means the pacific ocean heats up 0.8 deg., this year it is 3.

The ocean water south of the river is like a bath. I dont have any info on the Leewin current, but I bet its not flushing past Rotto. please correct me.

The warm water heats up and creates a localised humid trough, so south of city beach is getting so much moisture in the air..
Guys are struggling on a 10.

My prediction for this season is first of all if youre not kitesurfing on waves, get a bigger kite. Most of January -Feb, we will be troughed out, December, 10 days in green arrows, the rest, mostly yellow. March will be better than feb this year in terms for good seabreezes.

Qld, Bali winds dont pack a punch, nor does the ocean south orf the river ATM.

Any other weathermen out there?

You can take 10 knots off us up North for the last couple of days,, its been brutally windy, not even 7am and its already 20knots SW

The west coast equivalent of El Nino/La Nina is the Indian Ocean Dipole (doesnt get the press the east coast version does). its been very strongly positive and so the late start to summer winds here (and the dry winter)

Good news is its breaking down strongly like it usually does at this time of year so late start but will be as windy as ever here this summer

Here is the IOD forecast:

www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml#IOD

Hey Bara, is that right? During winter we had positive IOD, hence the low rainfall with colder waters, and if this lasts through to summer, strong seabreezes. So now that IOD is in decay back towards neutral, how does that translate to windy summer?

IOD defined:

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A positive Indian Ocean Dipole brings heavy rainfall to eastern parts of Africa and drought to countries around the Indonesian Archipelago, including Australia. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase tends to do the opposite.

the leewin current is a warm water current that when strong pumps water from up north southwards to the bottom of cape leewin. Its why you catch tropical fish on the north side of rotto and temperate fish on the southern side. Its supposed to be strong in winter and back off in summer to about exmouth. The flushing (poorly explained) is when the current backs off and the colder water from the southern ocean pushes up.

Cold water temps and hot land create strong seabreezes. ATM south of the river the breeze comes in and then you see haze on the S,W,N horizons. The wind wont get any stronger during the day, no matter what the forecast.

El Nino effects the East Coast more than WA. It has some influences. Any one know?

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This thread from a few weeks ago:

www.seabreeze.com.au/forums/Kitesurfing/General/Strong-El-Nino-here-to-stay/

[Quote] Mazdon said...
my understanding is that the colder water just under png/indo creates a weaker leeuwin (warm) current pushing down from teh north, so the capes (colder) current from the south pushes up a bit further and stronger from the south west and into the lower and mid-west region then "normal" - which makes the waters off of our coast generally cooler for the next few months = stronger breezes as you said. look up pattiaratchi for papers/research info on the capes current. i'm sure someone has a more technical knowledge than that - but that's what i was taught.

There's also another thread from a month or so ago. I did a bit of research on bom and long story short is that el-nino's have a history of basically doing not much at all to WA (ie. No change to standard years for us.)

www.seabreeze.com.au/forums/Kitesurfing/Western-Australia/20152016-Season-El-Nino/

DJM - but El Nino seems to coincide with positive IOD (although this is not always the case). See below:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/positive/#El Niño

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BOM said..
Winter and spring - Positive IOD and El Niño
Some positive IOD events, but not all, occur during the same year as an El Niño. In 2007 a positive IODoccurred in the same year as a La Niña. This is the only clear occurance of a positive IOD event coinciding with a La Niña; 1967 showed a weak La Niña like pattern in the Pacific Ocean after August, but was clearly neutral in the atmosphere. The relationship between El Niño and the IOD is complicated, with the level of dependence of the two phenomenon an area of active research.

Good to see a glass half full kinda guy in a forum for a change

Don't get me wrong, I hope it blows it's ring off. I'm just saying that MOST of the time nothing changes.

as long as we get swell its all good, rather have 1 good day with swell than 5-6 flat screamers

Couple of screamers on the trot, one with swell one without swell, tonight was mental, 30knts plus , rare to be over powered on my 7, a 5/6 would of been the go, she's been a hit and miss season so far for Midwest standards
When you split your wetty in 2 it's a good sign

I see everyone is a suspicious lot on here, no-one commenting on this weeks forecast haha

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DJMWA said..
I see everyone is a suspicious lot on here, no-one commenting on this weeks forecast haha

Well that's torn it.

Haha, Synoptics look good, first legit summer pattern for the season imo. Only worrying thing is what the low and associated ridge will do over the weekend.

7 day screamer

Ooof

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cauncy said..
Couple of screamers on the trot, one with swell one without swell, tonight was mental, 30knts plus , rare to be over powered on my 7, a 5/6 would of been the go, she's been a hit and miss season so far for Midwest standards
When you split your wetty in 2 it's a good sign

Or it means you're just a fat old bastard

Not far off being over-powered on my 7 this arvo Cauncy and it barely got to 34-35 knots up here, should have a 6 in my hot little hands in a week or so!

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Chris6791 said...

cauncy said..
Couple of screamers on the trot, one with swell one without swell, tonight was mental, 30knts plus , rare to be over powered on my 7, a 5/6 would of been the go, she's been a hit and miss season so far for Midwest standards
When you split your wetty in 2 it's a good sign

Or it means you're just a fat old bastard

Not far off being over-powered on my 7 this arvo Cauncy and it barely got to 34-35 knots up here, should have a 6 in my hot little hands in a week or so!

Had a nice little session up your way , around 2pm
Solo I may add, couldn't believe you p....ters wernt out
Nearly at my old middleweight days
Tbh a bit more weight would of been nice
Stronger tomorrow , is that possible

I went up to Corros for the arvo today, you out again tomorrow? South beach? Might come down if you're hitting the water.

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Chris6791 said...
I went up to Corros for the arvo today, you out again tomorrow? South beach? Might come down if you're hitting the water.

Thinking of a south beach to my place dwinder, tide dependant, 4 great spots on the way, coldy at the finish line

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cauncy said..

Chris6791 said...
I went up to Corros for the arvo today, you out again tomorrow? South beach? Might come down if you're hitting the water.

Thinking of a south beach to my place dwinder, tide dependant, 4 great spots on the way, coldy at the finish line

hey Cauncy does the tide up there make a big difference ?? explain please (pauline )

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Luther said...

cauncy said..

Chris6791 said...
I went up to Corros for the arvo today, you out again tomorrow? South beach? Might come down if you're hitting the water.

Thinking of a south beach to my place dwinder, tide dependant, 4 great spots on the way, coldy at the finish line

hey Cauncy does the tide up there make a big difference ?? explain please (pauline )

On our dwinders, we've the point, bay, river mouth, seaspray, and factory, all reefy, great gig with swell and higher tides, it's pretty much the same all the way on and off to gero, south of Dongara is beachy, makes a better downwinder tbh when at low tide

Have only kited south beach and a dw from just north of cliff head to south beach, sure was looking out for those lime work silos :)

Great gig with swell and high tides Cauncy? I dunno, I still found it quite exhilarating skimming over the reef at low tide this arvo in 4 inches of water with a gusty 35 knots ripping through

and by exhilarating I mean I was praying I didn't stack it and get dragged across the reef and up the sea wall!

That pale ale was a ripper Chris, great call, unlike our kite choice, pisser when a 7 is your smallest, she was up there for sure, flapping kites , ripped kites, sand blastings, nice views of the reef ( and bombies) from up there