im new to the south west region of wa. based on the beach near capel. evrey day i go on to seabreeze and they say 25knot southerlies and there wont be a breath of wind all day. i am willing to catch the bus in to bunbury if seabreeze is rite but i dont want to cart my stuff all the way there to be dssiapointed.
please!!! is seabreeze always close for the bunbury forecast and are there any groups/clubs for kite surfers round here?

thanks in advanced.
Sam

Yeah seabreeze is pretty accurate.
I think with all predictions there is an element of unknown but the models are more or less spot on most of the time.

A trip to the beach wherever you are is never a waste of time....

NO there always getting it wrong been caught out boating & kiting to many times use as rough guide only

Normally, if the forecast is completely wrong, the models seabreeze uses re-calculate and the subsequent forecasts are much more accurate. However, the last two weeks have been surprisingly wrong with seabreeze...but so has every other forecast being made about the wind. I would say somebody upstairs is messing with us wind slaves.....jerk

not really, if you can read the maps you can get an idea as to how accurate they will be.
BOM forecasts not the most likely forecast but the most dangerous to sailors that could be expected. Seabreeze doesn't and generally gives a more realistic one. yesterday there was a ridge or trough [cant remember] along the coast and more importantly there where clouds about so kiteable winds where unlikely.

I find its normally right if the forecast max temp is less than early 30's. when it gets to 35 + the heat tends to kill it!

remember perth is windier than down south normally...

Select to expand quote

kitecrazzzy said...

not really, if you can read the maps you can get an idea as to how accurate they will be.
BOM forecasts not the most likely forecast but the most dangerous to sailors that could be expected. Seabreeze doesn't and generally gives a more realistic one. yesterday there was a ridge or trough [cant remember] along the coast and more importantly there where clouds about so kiteable winds where unlikely.

However as seabreeze predicted yesterday miraculously happend. www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/wa_yesterday.asp


Same today.... go figure.

"Wrong" is a pretty broad term .. due to the variability of weather (i.e. gusts, how far the seabreeze travels inland etc) it is best described with terms such as "ranges" and "probabilities". The exception is when the forecast is right. Then it's called accurate and precise!

Interesting article here: A history of weather discovery
secure.seabreeze.com.au/Members/Content/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

..and here: www.seabreeze.com.au/info/wind.asp

This week, there has been a trough down the west coast, which is keeping the seabreeze offshore. The forecast has been "correct" in that the seabreeze has indeed reached 20+ knots, but possibly "wrong" depending on where you measure it. Rottnest, correct, Perth incorrect.

I'd suggest that the seabreeze has to 'end' somewhere, as it is a circular pattern that returns to sea in the upper altitudes. Sometimes the breeze can extend inland 5Km's, 100km's, and other times it can hang offshore 1km and more.

damn that trough

usually the weekly forecast is spot on - for Rottnest

Too many people rely on the "green arrows". Use a bit of intelligence and work out what the conditions are going to do based on ALL the information, not just green versus yellow.

TIP: throw your wind meter in the bin, its useless.

Meh, its good for me. Currently doing a 4week "intensive" calculus course to get into uni. 4 weeks to do 2years of equivelent work at school.
So, with this lack of wind, i can do what im ment to be doing, and thats learning
Must be god's way of helping.....
If you can blame anyone im here

Select to expand quote

meerkat said...

Too many intelligence work out what to do the information, green versus yellow.

Hey meerkat
The green arrows mean go, the yellow ones mean go really fast and the red ones mean go when no one is watching.

I have my wind meter in the lounge where I can see it and it has never been accurate but I keep it just in case... actually, once there was wind in the lounge but it was more a warm gust and it was gone before I could even pump up my kite.

There is often a large difference in the wind between capel, bunbury, and further north due to the effect of cape naturaliste.

Cesar's spot on with the bunbury port website, but 30k's north will often be another 5 kts stronger and capel 5kts less

Come up to Australind sometime if you want to hook up with some local kiters.

Yesterday afternoon on the boating BOM forecast for Morton bay, (Forecast 10 to 15 knots SE) this morning, upgraded to 15 to 20 knots SE, after getting back from kiting in 20 to 25 knots(20 mins ago) checked the forecast, up graded to 20 to 25 knots. Not complaining pleasant surprise, and more wind tomorrow,.... apparently. Only use the forecast as a guide, most of the time I think they do a pretty good job of getting it wright.