Just wondering what's up with the terrible inaccuracy of seabreeze wind forecasts; for Sydney anyway. Noticed Seabreeze has been way out of kilter with other sites before before so thought I'd post latest observation in the hope of getting an amendment in accuracy or comment from Seabreeze. Shame to have to be completely dismissive of the Seabreeze forecast. On top of the desperation and depression of a windless Sydney winter one doesn't need the crushing disappointment of having one's hopes elevated by the seabreeze forecast then dashed by the reality. (note: Predict Wind although not pictured also concurred with windguru and windfinder in the case.)

Just bye a bigger kite !! There were 3 of us at Narrabeen two at collaroy two out at long reef this afternoon that I saw . I was on a 17 to start with so was my mate and then a few runs on a ten at the end .
But I do agree the forcast are a little off at the moment !!!

Interesting isn't it!

For Tuesday, both Seabreeze & the BoM are (currently) predicting 10-15 , then 15-25 later in the evening.

The two sites above are predicting 4-5 knots, then 9 knots (gusting to 18)

Shall see how how it all pans out, as it may change .. weather forecasting is still not an exact science, and requires a heap of accurate land/sea observations to even being to generate an accurate forecast.

Interesting story on how far we've come here:

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

(edhead, I've sent you an email edhead to discuss further)

Apologies if I came off a little cantankerous. Windless Sydney winter must be getting to me. My first one here. How do kiters deal with living here? A place that is only reasonably reliably kite-able 6 months of the year. Unfortunately I rely heavily on the forecast. I live in the worst place for kiting in sydney. Bondi. It's a 50 minute drive to Kurnell/Cronulla or 50 minutes to Long Reef/Narrabean. And if you hit bad traffic, it can be 1.5 hours, hence the need to know afore I go.
Btw. I note predict wind has updated their forecast for wednesday and is more akin to Seabreeze though the other two are still showing relatively light air. Let's see. Let's hope.
Cheers (Thanks for your email Laurie and I do appreciate that forecasting is hard and the efforts of those that do it.)

I agree Seabreeze forecast is in shambles again - it was the same last winter but seemed pretty reliable in summer...? Also I notice they always predict MORE knots further in future and then gradually downscale as each day draws closer. I have yet to see them UNDERestimate the wind... as if they'd be liable for doing so.

Very frustrating...

It's an outrage isn't it, that Seabreeze might get a "forecast" wrong. You know, Mother Nature can be a bi@tch at times, but let's all blame it on one website & one moderator/admin/IT nerd, it's all down to "him" or "them" as the case may be.

Bearing in mind that "forecasting" is in reality, predicting what might happen, it's absolutely reasonable to petulantly blame this site when we don't get what we are told we [u]might[u] get.

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edhead said..

Apologies if I came off a little cantankerous. Windless Sydney winter must be getting to me. My first one here. How do kiters deal with living here? A place that is only reasonably reliably kite-able 6 months of the year. Unfortunately I rely heavily on the forecast. I live in the worst place for kiting in sydney. Bondi. It's a 50 minute drive to Kurnell/Cronulla or 50 minutes to Long Reef/Narrabean. And if you hit bad traffic, it can be 1.5 hours, hence the need to know afore I go.
Btw. I note predict wind has updated their forecast for wednesday and is more akin to Seabreeze though the other two are still showing relatively light air. Let's see. Let's hope.
Cheers (Thanks for your email Laurie and I do appreciate that forecasting is hard and the efforts of those that do it.)

I know your pain, and that's why the site was created in the very first place! Hang in there .. summers coming.

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DutchRooster said..

I agree Seabreeze forecast is in shambles again - it was the same last winter but seemed pretty reliable in summer...? Also I notice they always predict MORE knots further in future and then gradually downscale as each day draws closer. I have yet to see them UNDERestimate the wind... as if they'd be liable for doing so.

Very frustrating...

Agreed, it is frustrating. Such is weather.

Part of the explanation of this is that winter weather patterns are far more turbulant and complex than summer patterns, which makes it more difficult. Imagine predicting a candle flame simply flickering in still conditions, versus predicting the flame when held in the wind. The atmosphere is a lot more dynamic in winter.

Both windsurfers & kitesurfers have suggested various conspiracies such s the "7th day wind is always stronger" to get people excited and coming back to the site. The challenge is that the forecasts are used just as many fisho's and surfers, who want the exact opposite .. they'd prefer no wind on a daily basis.

The forecasts are designed to be as accurate as they can be, when generated at that moment in time .. not more .. not less.

I don't think this conversation would even be taking place if Sydney was not getting such a bad winter.

It has been difficult to get out and we have been lucky to get out once every three weeks. Unfortunately that means arranging days off etc depending on the forecast....however, in saying that its the price you pay for being addicted to sport that relies on the elements.

Hi Laurie,

Thanks for providing some clarification. For what it's worth, I view Seabreeze' wind forecast as a convenience to the forum; a nice add-on service to the forum. The links all point to the BOM and so I view the winter inaccuracies as theirs (and so I shouldn't have pointed the shambles comments towards SB; apologies!). It's strange though that they always predict more wind 6 or 7 days out, and then scale it down a bit every day. Or am I just seeing this through the eyes of a wind junkie with withdrawal symptoms?

Is the wind that much harder to predict in NSW (especially in winter) or is the perceived inaccuracies also a sentiment shared by WA or VIC? Are there too few weather data-collection points in the vicinity to make more accurate forecasts? Most other places I've kited around the world have had more consistent and reliable forecasts, and that includes some pretty remote 3rd world countries...

As a Sandgroper I think the forecasts over here are pretty good. Winter storms are more unpredictable but I no longer kite in winter so it doesn't bother me.

As Laurie indicated, as a boatie for years, we thought the wind was always stronger than forecast, but when kiting I think the opposite is true.

So on the balance, I think seabreeze is a reasonable guide. And given I live next to where I kite, it doesn't bother me if it's out by a bit. If the wind is down, I can be home and back with a bigger kite & board in minutes

But my other passion, mountain biking, is done an hr away. Luckily that is not weather dependent, sun, rain, day, night, it makes no difference.

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laurie said..

Interesting isn't it!

For Tuesday, both Seabreeze & the BoM are (currently) predicting 10-15 , then 15-25 later in the evening.

The two sites above are predicting 4-5 knots, then 9 knots (gusting to 18)

Shall see how how it all pans out, as it may change .. weather forecasting is still not an exact science, and requires a heap of accurate land/sea observations to even being to generate an accurate forecast.

Interesting story on how far we've come here:

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

(edhead, I've sent you an email edhead to discuss further)

Got to keep the advertisers happy :o)

It would be a big advantage if you had some online stations setup in your areas with real time updates ,we have about 5 stations set up in the area with accurate wind updates every 5-10 seconds so it's easy to jump on line and check an average.

www.wunderground.com

Just went over and typed in Sydney ,scroll down to the bottom of the page and all the local stations come up some with real time rapid fire updates not sure of the areas but it could give you a better idea of the actual wind around the region.

Should be the same for most areas in Aus just type in your region.

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radman4 said..

It would be a big advantage if you had some online stations setup in your areas with real time updates...

There's a handy page here with 10 minute live wind updates...

www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/nsw.asp

Red thumbed for putting up an alternative wind site with real time rapid fire 5-10 sec updates f**k me

this thread makes me laugh, whinging about inaccurate forecasts!. Have you ever thought about learning to read weather/synoptic charts?. If you had bothered(and I can't believe how many so called wind sport enthusiasts don't), you would soon realize how complex and changeable weather patterns are, particularly when dealing with frontal stuff that is common in winter. If you see correlation between how you read the charts and what the forecast says, then its usually pretty good. In my experience 7 day forecasts aren't worth looking at. 3 days however are pretty accurate.

yes even the best models are only as good as the models and data that was used to build them...heard of the butterfly effect and chaos theorem. Works a treat with weather patterns. I know one thing, at University the physics we looked at regarding weather variables seriously blew my mind to pieces, got well beyond this fellas limitations...they do very well considering how complex weather variables and their interactions are. Reynolds numbers, turbulence effects, non linear laminar flow at boundary layers...christ it was more voodoo than math.

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radman4 said..

It would be a big advantage if you had some online stations setup in your areas with real time updates ,we have about 5 stations set up in the area with accurate wind updates every 5-10 seconds so it's easy to jump on line and check an average.

www.wunderground.com

Just went over and typed in Sydney ,scroll down to the bottom of the page and all the local stations come up some with real time rapid fire updates not sure of the areas but it could give you a better idea of the actual wind around the region.

Should be the same for most areas in Aus just type in your region.

Cheers radman. Yeah I do the same using the Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/sydney.shtml?ref=hdr and I try to track the wind/rain patterns coming up or down the coast. The Sydney Airport station is by far the most accurate for wind, the rest... so so (depending on wind direction).

@ bennie: I think many of us do a fair bit of research on wind and weather in order to fuel our passions, but in this day and age we shouldn't have to have a degree in meteorology in order to make a fair judgement on the forecast. What you refer to as whinging is simply comment on an observation that MORE wind seems to be forecasted further out, consistently, and then dropped a bit each day as it gets closer. You'll rarely if ever see it forecasted the other way around (LESS wind forecasted 7 days out then rising as the day draws closer). And yes: I agree that a 3 day forecast is more accurate. Forecasts for day 4, 5, 6, and 7 are just donkey dick teasers.

As I understand it much of the forecast data for Australia comes from a very small handful of dedicated computers around the world, then that modelling is on-sold to anyone that wants to buy it, including Weatherzone, Seabreeze, Wicked Willy or whatever. Unless I'm wrong, and I'm happy to be corrected, very few weather services actually do their own forecasts and modelling?

Tomorrow's weather is a forecast, weather 7 days away is the best guess of a very expensive computer in a dark basement somewhere. The closer a particular day gets the more you can trust it's forecast.