It looks like we might not have seen the last of the la ninas that we have been getting .Things are kind of neutral to slightly negative which is usual after a big event but are not trending to positive .Please please please no more . it looks like an ECL could form early next week bringing havoc to northern NSW and possibly right along the nSW coast.Lets hope not .

Mr float said...

It looks like we might not have seen the last of the la ninas that we have been getting .Things are kind of neutral to slightly negative which is usual after a big event but are not trending to positive .Please please please no more . it looks like an ECL could form early next week bringing havoc to northern NSW and possibly right along the nSW coast.Lets hope not .

If you can make any sense of it, information on the El Nino/La Nina:

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

This also explains it well:



What I understand: La Nina may continue into spring, but a repeat of the severe events such as in 2010/ early 2011 are extremely unlikely. Therefore better wind season for Eastern Aus 2012, *hopefully*.

What I understand: La Nina may continue into spring, but a repeat of the severe events such as in 2010/ early 2011 are extremely unlikely. Therefore better wind season for Eastern Aus 2012, *hopefully*.

Pleeeeeeease let this be true! I cant do another season without NE'ers

It could be worse, you could be walking round in equally horrible shoes, sporting the latest in fluoro lycra and sipping on skinny lattes at the local cafe after your 'big' morning ride.

You mean, the latest fluoro lycra with pretend sponsorship logos written all over them, don't you Willyo

Errrrr...surfing maybe......

wal269 said...

I was told it would be a 2 yr event by a meteorologist(spellcheck).....but everyone knows you can't trust those b@stards.

Be careful what you say here re BOM .I have been stalked by red thumbers for years if I dare to question their authority in matters meteorological

Great Video (along with the other thousand on the same topic), even I now have a basic understanding of how both the El nino and la nina work. What I don't understand is what are we to experience here on the west coast of Ozz, everything seems to provide explanations for patterns at South America and East coast of Ozz and Indonesia?
How does all this nino/a **** change my summer afternoons with the Fremantle Doctor?

Any help?

Tony said...

Great Video (along with the other thousand on the same topic), even I now have a basic understanding of how both the El nino and la nina work. What I don't understand is what are we to experience here on the west coast of Ozz, everything seems to provide explanations for patterns at South America and East coast of Ozz and Indonesia?
How does all this nino/a **** change my summer afternoons with the Fremantle Doctor?

Any help?

It has worldwide ramifications .EC oz is generally more affected than WC oz . i am pretty sure that one driver of your weather and indeed inland SE Australia (ie SW NSW and Vic ) is the Indian Ocean Dipole which sets up neg with cooler water off the horn of Africa and warmer water off NW WA which led to good rains NW wa over summer and helped SE oz particularly Victoria get a double whammy effect from the neg IOD and La Nina .I am not exactly sure what it means for the winds in SW WA . I have a feeling that whatever is going on with the polar vortex is your main driver . It seems that things are drier in SW WA in a neg IOD as the winds and moisture is streaming in from the Indian ocean further to your north.Maybe there is a WA weather guru lurking .You could also check out Ian Holtons weather .He seems pretty clued up and many farmers seem happy to actually pay him for his forecasts www.holtonweather.com/

Tony said...

Great Video (along with the other thousand on the same topic), even I now have a basic understanding of how both the El nino and la nina work. What I don't understand is what are we to experience here on the west coast of Ozz, everything seems to provide explanations for patterns at South America and East coast of Ozz and Indonesia?
How does all this nino/a **** change my summer afternoons with the Fremantle Doctor?

Any help?

Last summer I recall

SW were not that consistent even up until December
January was pretty bad, few 4-5 day long dry spells
February was a nightmare…
March – April were OK

Guess much of the same for this summer

La Nina 2010-2011 brought some different conditions to normal from memory....

1st good SW after a disappointing winter was mid September
Headed north for some seabreeze end of Sept early Oct. got 5+ days of good seabreeze before a strong NE front that developed into a the first of many easterly weather patterns. (correct me if im wrong)

Back in perth October was okay as was November
Towards the end of December i thought the doctor was finally coming in after having 3-4 consecutive days of good SW SB.

Had some great sessions down south late December.

Jan was pretty good. Feb was a shocker & i got 8 straight days in March.

Wind was more from South than SW last season.

Wasn't the best season for SB but there was still plenty of wind.

The last few years have been less windy and that seems to have been the same all over OZ.
During summer, good wind can be found in WA. The el nino slows the Leeuwin, so there's an extra windy season in Gero with hopefully 3m ground swell

wasn't too bad a season, channel busting a few times at the point, rather have inconsistant wind periods and thumping swell when it is windy as apposed to small sets and howlin