Yet again the BOM forecasted an arvo seabreeze, and again they've changed their mind on the 1400 updated forecast. Why , o why do they persist with a 7, yes SEVEN day forecast when it's plainly obvious they haven't got a clue.

What happens is a "trough" kills seabreezes. Troughs develop at different speeds and the forecast has to make it's best assessment on whether it's going to kill the breeze or not. This particular trough deepened rather rapidly and spoiled the onshore seabreeze. Interestingly, the 15-20 knots has just kicked in at Rotto, but that's not much use to us!

This article
www.seabreeze.com.au/info/wind.asp is interesting as a weather primer, as it shows you how to pick a trough so you can be aware of why a 20 knot forecast might have an "individual experience may vary" tag after it!

This History of weather discovery
www.seabreeze.com.au/Members/Content/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx is also a good read to show just how far we've come in weather forecasting ..

Enjoy .. Lozza

Furthermore it's lots of guessing and "in the past it did this, so let's calculate x by y and that equals 20knots.."..

Anyways, Yesterday they were jsut 1:30hours too late and a few knots below the actual wind in St.kilda (forecast said: 20 around 2:30, 3:30 it was coming with 30+..)..

Cheers,
Rickster

Try living in Sydney at the moment-we've had a month of troughs now-it's been the worst summer for NE seabreezes in YEARS. La Nina is here and it's punishing kiters on the E Coast.

Ba humbug! No Seabreeze for christmas this year naughty forum users!!

Forecast 5 degrees this weekend in Geraldton.

Sposed to be summer now I will have to dust off my Steamer.

WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING?
this time last year i was over powered on my 9m in blazing sunshine now i'm wearing a jumper trying to dry off wet kites. at least winter had wind.
lets hope for the best

Global warming!?? :(

... is not responsible for everything!!!

I read the aviation forecasts for a slightly more accurate estimation of the wind/weather. Although some of it doesn't relate to coastal areas a lot of the information can be extrapolated to give a better estimation of wind time and strength. I tend to look at the information for Rottnest Island, Jandakot, Busso and Perth Airport to pick up the trend for the day. They also get updated more often.

But to be honest, looking at the synoptics and staring out the window works a lot better....

cheers

Meant to be brilliant sunshine and 32 in Perth today.

Where as its been overcast most of the day and chucking down with rain the last two hours??