Select to expand quote

Storm Ahead said..

actiomax said..
.
I know a Chinese bloke who bought a house at Seaforth & spent $500 000 renovating it so they could have a six month holiday in the place even put a lift in from garage to house 1 flight of stairs for grandmother then when they went back to china the house was knocked down & rebuilt and that renovation was just added on to the rebuild cost so nobody would be any wiser .
The amount of money some of these chinese have is phenomenal .

OR PLAIN DUMB!

There are terms for people like that:
Dumb Ass, Dumb Money, More money than sense, A Fool & his money are easily parted.....
I can also think of several more colourful terms but they will get me kicked out of this forum.

This also sounds like someone trying to dispose of ill gotten gains (money laundering). Money from bribes or drug dealings etc.

Yep probably "other peoples" money and like govt dont really care how they waste it

Select to expand quote

petermac33 said..
Were interest rates to climb to 10 percent - house prices would completely collapse.

As would the economy, followed by interest rates.

One common trait in bull markets is that investors believe that 'this time it's different'. Especially, as Australia has not had a serious house price correction or crash in some thirty years.
Another thing to keep in mind is that historically, prices revert to the mean. If they are extended or over extended as in this case, the reversion is generally more severe. Like stretching a rubber band as far as possible in one direction and the snap back results in a devastating bear market.

The (investors) usually try to weather the storm and will point to the rental income or negative gearing maintaining their buy and hold mentality with the perception that rents will continue to go up in a climate of rising interest rates. However, when prices decline, rental yield and vacancy rates rise and rents are forced down.

Ultimately, when markets decline, there is a slow realisation (that this decline) is something other than a "time to buy another house opportunity". As losses mount and the banks come knocking, the related anxiety rises until individuals seek to avert further losses by selling.

Putting a time on it is the Million Dollar question!

It's an interesting paradox - the top of the market is characterised by the maximum proportion of people believing that prices are still rising; in effect when almost everyone is wrong. That is the top.

When there is almost universal consensus that there is no hope, that prices are falling, that is the bottom. Almost everyone is wrong again!

What a funny thing it is.

Well it took a couple of weeks this time but we're just a few off 400 for sale. Ker razeee

Select to expand quote

Haircut said..
Well it took a couple of weeks this time but we're just a few off 400 for sale. Ker razeee

Ooo, that's not looking good. Its either because its winter, or people are starting to stop buying....

400! I think Sydney is still trundling along, but you don't know the ride is over until after the merry-go-round has stopped...

Human emotions are strange and unpredictable. In fact, I could be wrong about the last word, what I should have had said is "predictable unpredictability". I think I got myself all tangled up in words now !

Let me use the share market an an example. It is unpredictable for sure. But there is a high degree of predictability as well, it being people goes with the mob. And fears and anxieties are only some of the ingredients to make matters even worse.

Take my friends for example. In Melbourne, with low to middle income, trying unsuccessfully to buy their own home. That is obvious as the prices kept going up. So they waited and more waiting until wait no longer. And they bought a 3X1 in an outer suburb of Melbourne for nearly $400,000.

$400,000 ? I told them it was way too much. No. They argued that within a month, similar houses in the same area has gone up by $20,000 ! So there you go...it is the fear and anxiety. Fear of not being able to buy one anymore. So if everyone thinks like this, wouldn't it push the prices higher and higher ?

Here is cut and paste from a paper I was just reading. The paper is from the Journal of Economic Perspectives (2003), and is not about property but nevertheless makes a point that is highly applicable to the East-Coast property market and to bubble-formation generally;

"With sequential decision making, people paying attention to what others are doing before them end up doing what everyone else is doing (that is, herding behavior), even when one's own private information suggests doing something different. The herd externality is of the positive feedback type: If we join the crowd, we induce others to do the same. The signals perceived by the first few decision makers--random and not necessarily correct--determine where the first crowd forms, and from then on, everybody joins the crowd. This characteristic of the model captures to some extent the phenomena of "excess volatility" in asset markets, or the frequent and unpredictable changes in fashions."

Essentially the early buyers, even if they are wrong, are "proved" to be right by the actions of the herd that follows. Like being the first Wildebeest to get going in Africa; that's where everyone is going so that must be right! Collective madness.

I'm going through the list of stuff sold and checking the previous buy date and price, and there's a bunch of (what appears to be) rental stuff thats being sold for only 30,000-ish more than when they bought, and a couple being sold within 12months. Even if they spent the minimum on maintenance and had some rent income, would these sellers break-even taking all taxes into consideration? Compared to 3% bank savings account interest, would it be worth the hastle/stress/effort with or without a loan?

finally - from 230 to 400 in about 8 months

how long till we see the first one to sell at purchased price?

Gold Coast real estate market is dead. I know because it's where most of my money is, albeit all paying for itself.

Sydney has shot up because fully half of its population was born overseas. Especially recently the influx of money from overseas can't be ignored, except by politicians.

I reckon that has to eventually overflow into other parts of Australia, and historically that has been the Gold Coast near the top of the list.

I think the games next year will give the GC a lot of exposure nationally. We'll see what happens.

On the turn at last. Seen 4 auctions cancelled on the day over the last 2 weeks.

Select to expand quote

Harrow said..
On the turn at last. Seen 4 auctions cancelled on the day over the last 2 weeks.

Due to pre-sale or lack of interest?

Only one genuine bidder. People starting to hold back, prices dropping about 5% from what I've seen over the last 1 or 2 months.

Select to expand quote

Harrow said..
Only one genuine bidder. People starting to hold back, prices dropping about 5% from what I've seen over the last 1 or 2 months.

Dam, hope i haven't missed the boat, just about to list my unit in Sydney.

www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/issuing-new-loans-against-unrealised-capital-gains-has-created-an-australian-house-of-cards/news-story/853e540ce0a8ed95d5881a730b6ed2c9

Select to expand quote

The report, "The Big Rort", by LF Economics founder Lindsay David, argues Australian banks' use of "combined loan to value ratio" - less common in other countries - makes it easy for investors to accumulate "multiple properties in a relatively short period of time despite high house prices relative to income".

This is on the ABC News.

www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-11/500b-dollars-of-liar-loans-in-australia-ubs/8892030

It is not really surprising that people are desperate to get into the thick of it for the fear of missing out. Perhaps a recurrence of "low doc loans" ?

I've been in Sydney over a year now and the property market is insane, I'm looking at moving to Brisbane but the problem is there's not a lot of work there. I cannot bring myself to buy in Sydney though and I've had enough of paying someone else's mortgage off.

Buying a shoe box in inner Sydney for a million is nuts. But that's what cash up baby boomers are spending.

The $64,000 question. Is it a permanent repricing of a permanent, non-replicable asset (and maybe a "catch-up" bringing the price up more into line with international city norms) or is it a bubble?

Bubbles are impossible to prove until they've burst.

Select to expand quote

SydneyDan said..
I've been in Sydney over a year now and the property market is insane, I'm looking at moving to Brisbane but the problem is there's not a lot of work there. I cannot bring myself to buy in Sydney though and I've had enough of paying someone else's mortgage off.

rent in sydney
buy in brisbane ( and rent it out)

Sydney will never go down in price .
The best that could be hoped for if your trying to buy is the increase slows down .
2 bedroom apartment not built yet at rouse hill 550 000 but it has a parking space .
So you can only use 1 bedroom the other has to store windsurfing gear &maybe at the size thats the master bedroom.
But your a long way from the water
Except Penrith lakes which was to be expanded &if you look at council website they promote windsurfing there pity it never happened.
Supposed to be surf lifesaving club beaches foreshore etc but all there is a couple of holes from mining.
It would cost you from rouse hill into botany
M7
m2
Lane cove tunnel
:harbour tunnel
cross city tunnel in tolls to go to
I actually think.i missed a toll to go to botany lucky parking is free sorry whats that parking is going to be charged soon so to go for a sail &return will cost over $100
&take at least 4 hrs of traveling for a jt a guess 80 km round trip .
That is total insanity .
So in reality you want to get a new second hand board or new sail but it costs you that just to go for a year once a month .

Select to expand quote

actiomax said..
Sydney will never go down in price .

Famous last words?

This is the kind of psychology that always precedes every crash and correction.

There appears to be a sense of invulnerability in the property market that's highly irrational. Prices are "insane" because people behave as though they are insane. It's not the prices. It's the people.

I really don't know what makes people think history will not repeat. Enjoy the trip, it won't last.

Select to expand quote

Adriano said..

actiomax said..
Sydney will never go down in price .

Famous last words?

Definitely worth storing that nugget. Time will tell.

When have they ever fallen in sydeny realistically .?
Because if they had it wouldn't be so expensive now.

Select to expand quote

actiomax said..
When have they ever fallen in sydeny realistically .?
Because if they had it wouldn't be so expensive now.

That's the point, endless growth is impossible, what goes up has got to come down, but who knows when?
I'm always asking who can afford these crazy prices? are they all just bought from the growth in equity on other properties? I'm earning a decent wage in Sydney and really couldn't imagine dumping close to 1milliion for a unit.

Can anyone provide some examples of a bubble that didn't burst?

Select to expand quote

AUS1111 said..
Can anyone provide some examples of a bubble that didn't burst?

Haha. Oxymoron.

Select to expand quote

actiomax said..
Sydney will never go down in price .

bahahahaahahahahahahahah.....

Select to expand quote

AUS1111 said..
Can anyone provide some examples of a bubble that didn't burst?

That assumes its a bubble !

start comparing the price per $m2 to other "world" cities and its about right....