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Haircut said..
We looked at 6 houses for sale this fortnight in coombabah, all empty except one, and that tennant didn't want to stay. People are leaving the area

Still moving fast here near inward ... merrimac

Yeah it seems to be doing well

Take a drive over to Coomera and Pimpama and take a look at the land developments and the number that have sold (SOLD signs)...Amazing!
Sprawling suburbs, shopping centres and schools have sprung up and now getting built up.
The M1 is a nightmare during peak times.

House prices doing very well over here. Perhaps the downturn will start soon?

I haven't followed pimpama, i assume it's a little bit like coomera. i work around coomera and it appears to have reduced a lot of traffic since the games, and hope island too. I think people are moving away from this end. I'm certainly not complaining about the traffic reduction, but our student numbers have now dropped a lot which is a little concerning.

There have been tremendous changes in terms of properties listings in Sydney. Gosford came up as a most demanding place for the properties selling. Horizon Gosford started a new plan for the Gosford city so that people find a reason to live there. You can check out the master plan of the residential facilities and what they are planning in the city Gosford for the residential at Horizon Gosford.

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ChristianBertl said..
There have been tremendous changes in terms of properties listings in Sydney. Gosford came up as a most demanding place for the properties selling. Horizon Gosford started a new plan for the Gosford city so that people find a reason to live there. You can check out the master plan of the residential facilities and what they are planning in the city Gosford for the residential at Horizon Gosford.

I have a house at Tascott, not far from Gosford. From the house Gosford can be seen across Brisbane Waters. It's not a house with a hundred steps up to it.

What do you think about the future for the lower Central Coast?

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Mobydisc said..

ChristianBertl said..
There have been tremendous changes in terms of properties listings in Sydney. Gosford came up as a most demanding place for the properties selling. Horizon Gosford started a new plan for the Gosford city so that people find a reason to live there. You can check out the master plan of the residential facilities and what they are planning in the city Gosford for the residential at Horizon Gosford.

I have a house at Tascott, not far from Gosford. From the house Gosford can be seen across Brisbane Waters. It's not a house with a hundred steps up to it.

What do you think about the future for the lower Central Coast?

That's why I have said to check the masterplan for the Gosford because it is not completed yet. In the coming time, Gosford will be one of developing city. Apart from this, Most of the people love to live nearby the seaside and coastal areas. It will be no lower Central Coast anymore. Please the infrastructure of Coming Gosford at www.horizongosford.com.au/masterplan/

Those Auction results are not looking good!

We went to one yesterday, price guide (unofficial) 630+ (for land value) - Passed in. The house is a demolition job. Several nosy neighbours and four RE agents made it look like a small gathering.

Did my sums on this one - no way one could make this work at the asking price (unless the Bank was giving away free money....)

Interesting times ahead.....

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Storm Ahead said..
Those Auction results are not looking good!

We went to one yesterday, price guide (unofficial) 630+ (for land value) - Passed in. The house is a demolition job. Several nosy neighbours and four RE agents made it look like a small gathering.

Did my sums on this one - no way one could make this work at the asking price (unless the Bank was giving away free money....)

Interesting times ahead.....

Lots of unrealistic vendors out there still.

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psychomub said..

Storm Ahead said..
Those Auction results are not looking good!

We went to one yesterday, price guide (unofficial) 630+ (for land value) - Passed in. The house is a demolition job. Several nosy neighbours and four RE agents made it look like a small gathering.

Did my sums on this one - no way one could make this work at the asking price (unless the Bank was giving away free money....)

Interesting times ahead.....

Lots of unrealistic vendors out there still.

For so long as no-one is forced to sell then the market will just stay frozen for a while until something happens to jump start it - up or down.

Another 20s for brisvegas/GC, bad even for a long weekend

Oddly, there's another local property that was listed as sold in the reported auctions (525k), but it's back on the market again a week later? Would it be the buyer selling immediately, or conditions agreed on prior to auction, that weren't met? I've seen some unusual stuff lately

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eppo said..
I'm sure plenty of widgets were being made with people going about their daily lives before the 1929 market crash that eventually then saw people starving to death on the streets.

But that's just my point....after the 1929 crash, you have people out of work and nothing being available, when the day before those same people where in jobs, making stuff, and there was food and everything else available for everyone. Then suddenly everyone is sitting at home doing nothing, and there are shortages of everything. It's kind of the tail wagging the dog isn't it?

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Harrow said..

eppo said..
I'm sure plenty of widgets were being made with people going about their daily lives before the 1929 market crash that eventually then saw people starving to death on the streets.

But that's just my point....after the 1929 crash, you have people out of work and nothing being available, when the day before those same people where in jobs, making stuff, and there was food and everything else available for everyone. Then suddenly everyone is sitting at home doing nothing, and there are shortages of everything. It's kind of the tail wagging the dog isn't it?

It is a f^cking sad state of affairs when a sector of the economy who never lay their hands to tools or manufacturing ingredients have such a huge impact on how we all live our lives.

Have been reading Chris Leitner's The Evil Princes of Martin Place. Like all books on economics for me it is a huge struggle and I am lucky to get three pages read in a session. In the book he states in the preface that his goal is to explain what caused the GFC which only a few critics saw coming. This paragraph pretty much sums up a lot of what I have read so far:


Have to say Eppo, that from what I have read so far Leitner and Anderson have a lot of common ground.

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Sydney 716

SCHEDULED AUCTIONS

464

RESULTS AVAILABLE

48%OF 464 CLEARED

CLEARANCE RATE*

113 sold prior to auction107 sold at auction4 sold after auction79 withdrawn161 passed in
Latest auction results




Melbourne 72

SCHEDULED AUCTIONS

46

RESULTS AVAILABLE

54%OF 46 CLEARED

CLEARANCE RATE*

6 sold prior to auction17 sold at auction2 sold after auction5 withdrawn16 passed in

Last Saturday Sydney had 716 auctions 79 withdrawn 161 passed in
A definite downturn, start saving the bargains are coming!

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boofta said..

6 sold prior to auction17 sold at auction2 sold after auction5 withdrawn16 passed in

Last Saturday Sydney had 716 auctions 79 withdrawn 161 passed in
A definite downturn, start saving the bargains are coming!

The scary thing is that the banks seem intent on winding up interest rates to compensate for the reduction in their investment loans. So, they win, no matter what.

I wonder if there ever will be 'bargains'. When I first started looking for a house years ago, when prices were cheap, it was only the less than optimal houses that were for sale. In a similar vein, I read recently where someone has said that they know we are in a bubble when the poorer stock, such as houses on main roads, are selling for a premium.

Hey FN, a rise in the overnight cash rate has gotta be a matter of when and not if. The banks just beat them to it. I wonder what their exposure to bad debt will be this time round if things really turn sour. Like Boofta reckons, the winners from a downturn are the buyers.

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boofta said..
6 sold prior to auction17 sold at auction2 sold after auction5 withdrawn16 passed in

Last Saturday Sydney had 716 auctions 79 withdrawn 161 passed in
A definite downturn, start saving the bargains are coming!

Don't count auction sales when a football final is on, the clearance rate is always low.

Hey Japie
Have been reading Chris Leitner's The Evil Princes of Martin Place. Like all books on economics for me it is a huge struggle and I am lucky to get three pages read in a session. In the book he states in the preface that his goal is to explain what caused the GFC which only a few critics saw coming.
A really good summary of the GFC is in the movie The Big Short. Worth a watch.

Yeh okay Japie will have a read of that one.

Thing is was he on public record like Anderson saying that it was going to happen and when? Or are the writings an analysis after the event ? Because any economist with half a nut can write a thesis on what happened and why after the fact. Does he go on to predict the increase in land price after 2009 ?


Banks have to raise interest rates to follow the US as they normalise rates. It always happens at this stage of the cycle ... not some times, not most of the time, always.

They don't capital will flow out of our banks offshore to get a better rate.

Cheap land after the GFC has all been gobbled up now, time for a mid cycle recession cool down as interest rates normalise and cause some havoc. But it won't be land price led so don't panic.

Companies can restructure, move offshore, be bought out, go bankrupt.

When land is involved (the cause, always)... run for the fckn hills with a shot gun and ya best botttle of rum. Can't repackage land and send it over seas lol...

the GFC was just an very obvious land price led collapse (with all the bells and whistle derivative stuff just exacerbating the root cause).

They have all been cause by exactly the same thing since, well since the fckn 1600s in England. Enclose the exonomic tent of land and it will keep on happening. Tax property gains away and give it back to the people then wealth insinuates.

Ask yourself why Singapore is predicted to be the wealthiest nation on the earth by 2050... with sweet fck all land or resources.

Read ya history lads, cause those in the know don't want you to know!!!

They want you to discuss the rubbish I've been reading on this thread while the new modern feudal lords retain and gain their wealth. Through land... always in the end through land.

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boofta said..

Sydney 716

SCHEDULED AUCTIONS

464

RESULTS AVAILABLE

48%OF 464 CLEARED

CLEARANCE RATE*

113 sold prior to auction107 sold at auction4 sold after auction79 withdrawn161 passed in
Latest auction results




Melbourne 72

SCHEDULED AUCTIONS

46

RESULTS AVAILABLE

54%OF 46 CLEARED

CLEARANCE RATE*

6 sold prior to auction17 sold at auction2 sold after auction5 withdrawn16 passed in

Last Saturday Sydney had 716 auctions 79 withdrawn 161 passed in
A definite downturn, start saving the bargains are coming!

That's a 66% clearance rate. 2 out of every 3 sold to the satisfaction of both the seller and the buyer. Doesn't sound particularly dire.

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eppo said..
Yeh okay Japie will have a read of that one.

Thing is was he on public record like Anderson saying that it was going to happen and when? Or are the writings an analysis after the event ? Because any economist with half a nut can write a thesis on what happened and why after the fact. Does he go on to predict the increase in land price after 2009 ?

Cannot answer that as yet Eppo. There are 645 pages in the book. I bought it back in 2012 but had a huge issue trying to read it because the Kindle download was up to sh1t. Did have a quick squiz at his company performance,

www.leithner.com.au/information_for_intending_shareholders_dec17.pdf

You are most likely a lot more competent than I to say whether or no he predicted the collapse. There are a few charts in that link which should answer the question for you.

The AFR is reporting that 6700 Apartment projects across Australia have been blacklisted by a major bank. Buyer loans are either being declined or offered less funding as per (LVR).

ABC is reporting that off the plan buyer are getting hit by a double whammy of falling house prices and tougher rules.

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Storm Ahead said..
The AFR is reporting that 6700 Apartment projects across Australia have been blacklisted by a major bank. Buyer loans are either being declined or offered less funding as per (LVR).

ABC is reporting that off the plan buyer are getting hit by a double whammy of falling house prices and tougher rules.

This first bit effectively means that the developer is going to have a hard time selling and will need to drop prices, or if they are already bought, the owners will have to drop their prices to meet the market. This has been the case for at least a year or two where the banks will not lend for particular areas that it considers over priced or too much supply. This was even before the investor loans were harder to get.

Buying off the plan is always going to be a risk, its just that lately people have assumed they will always go up in price.

I wonder how this will pan out long term. There are still quite a few smaller projects with people building duplexes, so they must think there is still some profit in it, or they need to continue projects no matter what as they have already gone too far.

I was a bit pessimistic about this before, but now, as long as the economy is otherwise okay, things will just continue on.

If you think you're sailing into a storm FN, you batten down the hatches. The institutions will be going into lockdown now to minimise their exposure to bad debt, they already no doubt realise that they are up to their eyeballs in it already

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Paddles B'mere said..
If you think you're sailing into a storm FN, you batten down the hatches. The institutions will be going into lockdown now to minimise their exposure to bad debt, they already no doubt realise that they are up to their eyeballs in it already

Sure. They were doing that at least two years ago though, so its nothing new. If nothing they were a bit tardy and should have been a bit more prudent, but I am sure like any business that they chance to make more money over-rides a lot of care.

If they were worried about bad debt, would they increase the rates? I find that an interesting question even if no one else does. If they really care about bad debt then they would hold their rates low and risk poor shareholder returns. People defaulting is going to be a bigger problem if they raise them high enough.

If the banks judge it correctly then everything keeps going along fine as inflation catches house prices up.

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FormulaNova said..

boofta said..

6 sold prior to auction17 sold at auction2 sold after auction5 withdrawn16 passed in

Last Saturday Sydney had 716 auctions 79 withdrawn 161 passed in
A definite downturn, start saving the bargains are coming!

The scary thing is that the banks seem intent on winding up interest rates to compensate for the reduction in their investment loans. So, they win, no matter what.

I wonder if there ever will be 'bargains'. When I first started looking for a house years ago, when prices were cheap, it was only the less than optimal houses that were for sale. In a similar vein, I read recently where someone has said that they know we are in a bubble when the poorer stock, such as houses on main roads, are selling for a premium.

A pity you can't get higher interest rates without stuffing up home buyers and the economy .
It's pretty hard to live on 3% returns on bank deposits..Everyone always talk about the poor home buyers.. what about those at the other end trying to survive on crappy interest rates? If only they were 18% like when bought my first house..

I have a 57 year old friend who lives in a 3 bedroom unit in Carlisle.

He lost his job of 20 odd years two years ago and is still unemployed. He is looking to downsize to a property of less than 300k. I told him to sell asap and rent but did not get past go.

His property at its peak was worth around 530K. He has put it up for sale and he told me last week he will not accept less than 490K - he could be waiting forever

This time,it does look like its not going back up.

Actually,I am predicting his property will be worth less than 400k soon - and possibly a lot,lot less.

At present, investors are holding steady.......but if and when things start looking shaky and they start selling to minimise losses, that's when the panic will set in. Once investors start taking losses, it's all over rover.

does anyone know anything about the goldcoasts jewel highrise development holdups?

my 3rd hand info is there are two funding it, one was hongkong based which sold to chinese, and now the chinese are having troubles funding it and its more than multiplex and yuhu agreement issues?

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petermac33 said..
I have a 57 year old friend who lives in a 3 bedroom unit in Carlisle.

He lost his job of 20 odd years two years ago and is still unemployed. He is looking to downsize to a property of less than 300k. I told him to sell asap and rent but did not get past go.

His property at its peak was worth around 530K. He has put it up for sale and he told me last week he will not accept less than 490K - he could be waiting forever

This time,it does look like its not going back up.

Actually,I am predicting his property will be worth less than 400k soon - and possibly a lot,lot less.

Strangely, PM33's predictions aren't entirely swaying me.

To quote Nassim Taleb... "Talk is cheap.". Pretty much my reaction to every commentator - amateur or professional. Only pay attention to those with skin in the game... And only to what they do, not to what they say.