Does anyone do much long term analysis of swell and conditions for their area or just kind of have a brief understanding and turn up?
I realise most have an idea what months are likely to be good, but I remember a mate used to have a full notebook on conditions. How deep do you get into monitoring conditions?

Way back when, used to use the US navy long term forecast, don't think it exists anymore, but there are a number of similar ones out there.

Used to plan my time in lieu with them for mid week surf down south, scored some monster days

Use to keep a diary for 5 years on swell each day,
didnt prove much more than what was already known..... lots of swell cyclone season etc.
Weather/swell is hard to predicted to any certainty, on the east coast of nsw anyways.
And especially now with out of control weather patterns and record conditions