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eppo said..
Someone told me once (a professional forex trader) the markets are designed to take money from the highly educated to those not educated. So yes for most, the markets are indeed gambling and poor gambling at that. Don't have a lucky sorry soz, never gamble.

one thing this pro trader did tell me though which some of you have touched on, even with a 50/50 bet on a short or long (obviously certain methodologies can improve these odds) you will still get ahead of your money management is sound plus discipline to follow a well tested system to the letter, regardless.
so good gambling is essentially strict money management and self discipline than honours a back and forward tested system. But most are too stupid and/or lazy to be bothered with either.

Yep, Forex represent constant learning curve. Rules are bended, tricks applied.The most recent surprise was acknowledgment that price of OIL could fall well below zero.All one could expect , the price of OIL bought at 5c could drop to zero in worst case scenario.
But some finished to pay/ sell their holding at negative 20 dollars.
Funny how system is rigged,Because trading was halted and you could not sell tll your holding was simply liquidated by computer at max bottom.
You also can not buy at this negative price. But obviously somebody did ( bought that liquidated asset/bids)
Good money made by somebody there.


BTW Australia bough at this time significant amount off oil, but without capacity to storage it. Interesting will be to know, how much money we all ( country) lost on that deal ( or earn). we did pay for storage at US at the time there was none left. anywhere in the world.

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cwamit said..
Dabbled Trading forex a few times , first go traded the news and went from 2k to 7k over 4 months, compounding wins, best trade was on nzd aud made $1500 in less than 2 seconds ;never enjoyed the trades too stressful, of course ended closing that account at 1800 after I went big in the aud reserve bank interest and a revenge trade , left trading for a while recently had another go recently with a bot using mt4 , made 800 bucks auto trading then closed it down , lucky run , forex is more rigged than the casino. Good Money management is only a slower way to loose money.
Know one person that bought 20k of shares on a penny dreadful and turned it into 2.5 million several years later

The most common trick ( Forex platform offer to their customers) is wiping their positions, by lack of liquidity trick. At some regular intervals Forex prices picks suddenly in one direction , many hundred pips ups or down. Wiping all margin position, by margin calls, .
All saving mums and dads- popular players designed to fail , loose money.Fine , one may say because smart ass could set up order to capture this sudden picks, get money fast.Not at all! System is designed in such way that spread ( difference between BUY and SELL) usually 2 pips , suddenly rose to 200 or more.So you could not BUY or SELL on those picks, you could only loose. Like a ZERO in casino.This is a main reason 95% of players / investors on FOREX loose money.


this is how it works, how they get your money on forex.
Oil as example.
at feral time you could BUY OIL at 20 dollars, to when want to sell it was worth nothing, ZERO or even less.
To make things worst , you could not SELL SHORT at zero or below ( to buy it back later) .

Explanation to trader was computer system malfunction, but for me in seems design in built in forex system.

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knot board said..
In the 90's a few of us ratbag enginerding students would pool our money and play roulette this way:
You need to start with $1280 in a kitty

Bet $5 on black - if black comes up you win $5

If the wheel comes up red
Double up to $10 on black

If it comes up Red again
Double up again $20 on Black

If it comes up Red
Double up again $40 on Black

You get the idea.... but by the seventh consecutive Red spin you have $640 on the table plus the $635 already 'invested' in previous bets - just to win $5

You can keep doing this until the table limit of $1000 - wining $5 each time black comes up.
8 Reds in a row and you loose the lot - the odds of 8 reds in a row is 1 in 256 but it seems to happen a lot also if the table rolls a green 0 or double 0 you get wiped out instantly.

Before starting our betting we'd watch a table to find one that just finished a long red streak, in hindsight this doesn't help at all but makes you think you are clever. The longest streak we watched was 13 Reds in row and couldn't do anything about because our money was already gone.

We always drank the profits and all things considered never ever got ahead. It was just a fun thing to do at the time and none of us went on to become gamblers. Casinos always win.

If I get some time on weekend I'll write a quick script that shows you how flawed that idea is. Run it through that play 100,000 times or so.

You don't have to get 8 reds in a row to lose your kitty.

...which buildings and bridges did you "engineering students" build? Just curious.

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Marvin said..
The au share market has returned around 11% nominal on average (about 7% in real terms given average inflation) since 1876 (in accumulation terms ie. with dividends reinvested). It's not like the nags or the casino - it is hard to lose money if you play long not short.

Just before the GFC in late 2007 the ASX was at 6,700. It's currently at 6,100 and lets' face it probably going to drop over the next 3 years or so.

You'd have been better off putting your money under a pillow than into the ASX the last 13 years, or more, and probably the same going forward another 10.

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evlPanda said..

knot board said..
In the 90's a few of us ratbag enginerding students would pool our money and play roulette this way:
You need to start with $1280 in a kitty

Bet $5 on black - if black comes up you win $5

If the wheel comes up red
Double up to $10 on black

If it comes up Red again
Double up again $20 on Black

If it comes up Red
Double up again $40 on Black

You get the idea.... but by the seventh consecutive Red spin you have $640 on the table plus the $635 already 'invested' in previous bets - just to win $5

You can keep doing this until the table limit of $1000 - wining $5 each time black comes up.
8 Reds in a row and you loose the lot - the odds of 8 reds in a row is 1 in 256 but it seems to happen a lot also if the table rolls a green 0 or double 0 you get wiped out instantly.

Before starting our betting we'd watch a table to find one that just finished a long red streak, in hindsight this doesn't help at all but makes you think you are clever. The longest streak we watched was 13 Reds in row and couldn't do anything about because our money was already gone.

We always drank the profits and all things considered never ever got ahead. It was just a fun thing to do at the time and none of us went on to become gamblers. Casinos always win.

If I get some time on weekend I'll write a quick script that shows you how flawed that idea is. Run it through that play 100,000 times or so.

You don't have to get 8 reds in a row to lose your kitty.

...which buildings and bridges did you "engineering students" build? Just curious.

Funny how quickly similar scripts becomes obsolete on Forex. Systems and algorithms designed on historical date, just a year old
proven to produce gain, do fail applied to current recent data.Which means that stock market are played now by Artificial Intelligence computer , constantly modifying strategy.No human can beat machine in such game .Now after chess and GO smart programmer may have earn some money on the side.
I bet that is what teams at supercomputer centers are doing after hours.

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evlPanda said..
You don't have to get 8 reds in a row to lose your kitty....which buildings and bridges did you "engineering students" build? Just curious.

I'm sure his bridges are fine.... as long as you don't get 8 trucks coming onto them in a row.

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evlPanda said..

Marvin said..
The au share market has returned around 11% nominal on average (about 7% in real terms given average inflation) since 1876 (in accumulation terms ie. with dividends reinvested). It's not like the nags or the casino - it is hard to lose money if you play long not short.

Just before the GFC in late 2007 the ASX was at 6,700. It's currently at 6,100 and lets' face it probably going to drop over the next 3 years or so.

You'd have been better off putting your money under a pillow than into the ASX the last 13 years, or more, and probably the same going forward another 10.

You cant be serious. Who buys peaks and sells troughs? I $ cost averaged into the market in March, sold in June. Just sitting now. Yes, more heavy weather ahead for the ASX.

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Macroscien said..
No human can beat machine in such game

Any human can beat them at roulette, though.

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psychojoe said..

Marvin said..
The au share market has returned around 11% nominal on average (about 7% in real terms given average inflation) since 1876 (in accumulation terms ie. with dividends reinvested). It's not like the nags or the casino - it is hard to lose money if you play long not short.

I'm about seven years into my long game and I'm down 85%. Thought I'd play it safe by going with a reputable broker.
If I'd ignored every single word he ever said I'd have been up $400,000 in the first month and who knows where after that.

Ahh, the broke-ya. Yep. A waste of your resources.

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evlPanda said..

Macroscien said..
No human can beat machine in such game

Any human can beat them at roulette, though.

If we only allow machine to spin roulette ,
the motor can last forever,
After few years of waiting, you give up,
machine wins again.But we should allow machines to earn money on their own , but them tax them twice as much as humans.

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cwamit said..
Dabbled Trading forex a few times , first go traded the news and went from 2k to 7k over 4 months, compounding wins, best trade was on nzd aud made $1500 in less than 2 seconds ;never enjoyed the trades too stressful, of course ended closing that account at 1800 after I went big in the aud reserve bank interest and a revenge trade , left trading for a while recently had another go recently with a bot using mt4 , made 800 bucks auto trading then closed it down , lucky run , forex is more rigged than the casino. Good Money management is only a slower way to loose money.
Know one person that bought 20k of shares on a penny dreadful and turned it into 2.5 million several years later

You made 1500 in 2 seconds then 800 on a bot trade calling it a lucky run. That's not trading that's gambling. Then you say good money management is a slower way to lose your money...

You have no idea what you are talking... about so I'd suggest you do stay out of it and take your lucky wins because you are gambling for sure...
and above. Yep forex is rigged for sure. Big banks run that casino. ... just gotta know when to stay the hell out and then follow the big boys. Get educated.

bloke I know didn't make one Real trade for 5 years. Tested (back and forward testing) and refined a trading plan for that long, day after day after day. He now makes a good living from it trading with prop firms. The rest are just lazy then write off the markets saying it's all rigged and money can't be made.
Or go for silly profits like above and lose it all. Warren buffet only returns 20 percent max a year on average. If you are trying to take more than that you are saying you are smarter than him. And you are not, period.

... you are either just too dumb or too lazy or both. Markets are designed to take money from the uneducated and give it to the educated. Simple as that. Anyhow that's his take and I think he's right. Because he makes money year after year in a so called rigged market. (Well it is rigged but his system allows for that). No free lunch, just bloody hard work - like everything.

he also said it takes so many years to say get a medical or engineering degree and it's no different. You are betting against some of the brightest minds on the planet so you bette have your ducks in a row.
or just make excuses (and comments like above).

Put a decent percentage of my salary into super every week for the last 35 years. Have a small fortune now. Yep, got rich overnight.

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psychojoe said.. I'm about seven years into my long game and I'm down 85%. Thought I'd play it safe by going with a reputable broker. If I'd ignored every single word he ever said I'd have been up $400,000 in the first month and who knows where after that.

I agree. Most of you heard my whinge already but I reckon the advice of the financial types is often farked.
I did the sensible thing as they say to "just buy anything to get into the market" with real estate. So as young married couple we bought a block in an area that was going up and up. Everyone doubled their money in 3yrs. I bought one - but that was the peak so I almost immediately lost money. Took years to sell it at a loss, so I lost $200K (plus) in 10yrs, then I just finished paying the personal loan for the shortfall on selling the block last week. All up a 15 years process of losing money. Now as a middle aged bloke I am back to square one. Rough mental maths - if I never bought a block and just saved the repayments money, I'd have $150K in the bank now.

Financial people telling you to buy a small house or a block early to "get into the market" are basing on what most often works, is not a dead set cert.

Same with shares over time, I've seen all the tears in the GFC and now COVID. Not the rich people - the normal middle class losing tons in shares or super being halved just before they retire. The smug back patting from the rich about doign the right thing and making money is crap, much was luck.

Now I'm glad I have nothing to lose. Live for now, buy toys and hit the water lots.

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Harrow said..
My grandmother was given a big bunch of Scratchie's for her birthday once. She was scratching them while her sister was over visiting. There were quite a lot of them, so she handed a few of them to her sister and said, "Here, you can scratch these ones if you like". Her sister scratched a $25K winner and exclaimed, "Oh, I've won 25 thousand dollars!", keeping the ticket. My grandmother was a very polite person and did not make a fuss of it. Her sister said, "I'll have to take you out to lunch as a thank you". My grandfather, who was not quite so polite, replied sarcastically, "Fish and chips will do". They got fish and chips.

Pretty poor form considering my grandmother was a pensioner, and her sister was quite well off.

Sounds like you have had a few experinces there mate. I might have to try my luck one time.

The only time i have won off gambling was a few years back when i put $10 on the Sharks to beat the Storm in the NRL Grand final. I ended up with just short of $40.
Other than that i have probably lost about $150 in the last Ten years.

My best flip? When i bought a Ride-on lawn mower for $300 and stopped at my brothers house on the way home to show him my new toy. His neighbour asked what i want for it, as a joke i said $3000. He said $2500 and that was that.

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Harrow said..
My grandmother was given a big bunch of Scratchie's for her birthday once. She was scratching them while her sister was over visiting. There were quite a lot of them, so she handed a few of them to her sister and said, "Here, you can scratch these ones if you like". Her sister scratched a $25K winner and exclaimed, "Oh, I've won 25 thousand dollars!", keeping the ticket. My grandmother was a very polite person and did not make a fuss of it. Her sister said, "I'll have to take you out to lunch as a thank you". My grandfather, who was not quite so polite, replied sarcastically, "Fish and chips will do". They got fish and chips.

Pretty poor form considering my grandmother was a pensioner, and her sister was quite well off.

Heck no! That would have caused a war with me. That person would not have left the house with that scratchie.

What sort of person thinks that's the right thing to do?? That's just nuts! Things have to be fair. You buy a scratchie, or get given one, no matter who scratches it, its yours. What on earth could make your grandmother's sister actually think she was entitled to that?

That said, I had a friend at school and his interpretation of ethics seemed to be a bit similar to that. I guess its the way you are brought up but it still surprises me that people can think that way.

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Mark _australia said..
Financial people telling you to buy a small house or a block early to "get into the market" are basing on what most often works, is not a dead set cert.

Same with shares over time, I've seen all the tears in the GFC and now COVID. Not the rich people - the normal middle class losing tons in shares or super being halved just before they retire. The smug back patting from the rich about doign the right thing and making money is crap, much was luck.

Now I'm glad I have nothing to lose. Live for now, buy toys and hit the water lots.

Financial sector is full of con men (and women), many with little idea what they are talking about and often only interested in maximising their commissions and trailers.

I once took up the offer from my bank to have a 'free consultation' with one of their financial planners, curious to hear what they would recommend. It ended up being some young upstart, still smearing his face with Clearasil, that gave me the sagely advice to borrow $250K against my house, (increasing my debt to the bank), and invest it in a managed fund all at once, (paying a commission and trailer to the bank). I suggested to him that might be a little foolish, since the market could drop suddenly, and it might be more prudent to regularly invest smaller amounts over a long period of time. (I felt like saying he should borrow $2.50 against his tricycle and do the same.) He showed me a graph of the last decade of the stock market booming and told me I couldn't lose and that I was missing a golden opportunity, (or was he just missing out on commission?). Two months later the GFC came along. Glad to say I ignored both his advice and all the follow-up phone calls.

When I had originally arranged the home loan, the loan officer tried to sell me home insurance as part of the package. When I said I wasn't interested in the insurance, she said that she might need to think about reviewing the application again. I suggested she finish processing the application, or alternatively we could go to her manager's office and call up the ACCC to have a little conversation about '3rd line forcing'. Never seen someone's face flush white and go into a fluster of panic so quickly.

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evlPanda said..
Just before the GFC in late 2007 the ASX was at 6,700. It's currently at 6,100 and lets' face it probably going to drop over the next 3 years or so.

You'd have been better off putting your money under a pillow than into the ASX the last 13 years, or more, and probably the same going forward another 10.

You're ignoring 13 years of dividends that would certainly put you in front. What if you'd put in a regular amount each month for the last 13 years, so you were buying in the lows, not just the pre-GFC peak. It's not sexy, and yes, you can even be behind for a few years, but averaging into the market over an entire working life is not a bad investment.

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eppo said..

cwamit said..
Dabbled Trading forex a few times , first go traded the news and went from 2k to 7k over 4 months, compounding wins, best trade was on nzd aud made $1500 in less than 2 seconds ;never enjoyed the trades too stressful, of course ended closing that account at 1800 after I went big in the aud reserve bank interest and a revenge trade , left trading for a while recently had another go recently with a bot using mt4 , made 800 bucks auto trading then closed it down , lucky run , forex is more rigged than the casino. Good Money management is only a slower way to loose money.
Know one person that bought 20k of shares on a penny dreadful and turned it into 2.5 million several years later

You made 1500 in 2 seconds then 800 on a bot trade calling it a lucky run. That's not trading that's gambling. Then you say good money management is a slower way to lose your money...

You have no idea what you are talking... about so I'd suggest you do stay out of it and take your lucky wins because you are gambling for sure...
and above. Yep forex is rigged for sure. Big banks run that casino. ... just gotta know when to stay the hell out and then follow the big boys. Get educated.

bloke I know didn't make one Real trade for 5 years. Tested (back and forward testing) and refined a trading plan for that long, day after day after day. He now makes a good living from it trading with prop firms. The rest are just lazy then write off the markets saying it's all rigged and money can't be made.
Or go for silly profits like above and lose it all. Warren buffet only returns 20 percent max a year on average. If you are trying to take more than that you are saying you are smarter than him. And you are not, period.

... you are either just too dumb or too lazy or both. Markets are designed to take money from the uneducated and give it to the educated. Simple as that. Anyhow that's his take and I think he's right. Because he makes money year after year in a so called rigged market. (Well it is rigged but his system allows for that). No free lunch, just bloody hard work - like everything.

he also said it takes so many years to say get a medical or engineering degree and it's no different. You are betting against some of the brightest minds on the planet so you bette have your ducks in a row.
or just make excuses (and comments like above).

Don't want to remove your podium from under you but the title was about gambling trades. Hence my contribution.

As for money management, your aware the forex trading industry says 90 % loose 90% capital within 90% days. With good money management 90% can loose 90% in 290 days. Forex is a zero sum game, your taking money from a looser to be a winner. So not everyone can be winners and the small guy whom can't see traders positions like the banks and market makers have a huge advantage, It's why ASIC Is reviewing as many countries already have done are tightening up forex cfd requirements such as leverage Sure there's a rare few whom can make money on the forex markets with a solid trading plan , only two I know that do - have blown several accounts and marriages to get to that stage. I told my accountant when I said I was dabbling in forex that if I made money I'd class it as gambling wins. Which we did.

Warren buffers an astute investor not a trader , if topic was about investing I'd share my successful stocks iv held for several years , Here's a few past stocks iv held prior to takeovers or selling out of them Almost all have grown well above An annual 20% all had an element of gambling to their success as It's called risk which Everyone has different levels of comfort with which is primarily the issue of emotions SXG ; EXT , JiN , GOR ; BOW

Going back to forex As far as I'm concerned many can backtest forward demo test for as long as they like : without money in the game most are as green as someone jumping straight in as majority of its controlling emotions and demo testing won't give the critical education of whom they are in regards to risk ; greed and fear, yes demo will provide a level of certainty to a method but that's not the same as putting hard cash on the line. The market is always changing otherwise proven past methods would work still.

If I was wanting to trade forex as a commitment to a living income , I'd use three main datums - shipping data what's coming in and out of our ports - commodities Price data like oil, gold , coal and exchange rates data , the reason being Currency exchanges are primarily by commercial transactions not forex trading And that's a supply demand market decision. So I'd trade short or long on a weekly and monthly basis, as I'm not the time for that kind of commitment I'll keep my gains and stick with investing stocks.

Hmm .. I do not lead an active lifestyle, so you can immediately exclude skiing, parachute, bungee jumping and other joys of life. It takes me a lot of time to work, which makes me very tired. Usually I have a day off on Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday I completely withdraw from the outside world and relax, but on Sunday I usually play in the casino. I do this via the Internet, as I am too lazy to go out. I recently found out about an update version of a site that I have been using for a long time and decided to try it again. So far, I have a maximum win of $ 4000. Yes, this is not very much, but I am constantly developing new strategies and I think that by the end of the month I will be able to reach about $ 6,000 ...

Gee Felicity McG you seem to include a link in each post you make. How very thoughtful of you. Cynical people would think that you are just advertising things, but not me!

As for gambling, everyone gambles for the 'emotions' and not the money. Everyone. If they were gambling for the money they would be done quickly after losing or one of those professional syndicates that the casinos kick out. Apparently the rush of winning, even a small amount, makes you forget all the losses you are stocking up on.

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FelicityMcG92 said..
moreover, I play for the emotions, not for money. It just makes me feel much better.

Me too, although solitaire on my phone seems to do the job nicely.

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FormulaNova said..
Apparently the rush of winning, even a small amount, makes you forget all the losses you are stocking up on.

Agree.
The worst part in knowing when to take your money and go home or just take a profit and stop for a while.
Every time after successful run, one may think that system works, luck will last forever.
So you usually increase stack and risk.Then tide change and could wipe your profit plus initial investments.Then game starts again.
Usually most of the investments are cyclical with periods of rise and gains , then drops.The most interesting gamble in this national will be finding the tipping point for real estate investors.
As some stage those they did managed to cash investment in right time will stuck will fortunes since others with mountain of debts , secured on negative value of property.

I remember my grandfather taking my family out to dinner when he won a $50 jackpot on the bowling club pokies. I was only 8 years old at the time, but even then I felt like saying, "But Pop, how much money do you put into the pokies each week?"

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Harrow said..
I remember my grandfather taking my family out to dinner when he won a $50 jackpot on the bowling club pokies. I was only 8 years old at the time, but even then I felt like saying, "But Pop, how much money do you put into the pokies each week?"

Yeah, my fathr has mentioned in the past how much he won, but never mentioned what he spent. I now view all gamblers the same when they tell me about their great wins.

For my entertainment, I have always chosen very complex online games, because only in this way the interest and desire to complete the game with a victorious finale increases, and besides, it develops, and thereby increases the personal intellectual level, which by the way is very important for the self-development of the individual. In addition, abrupt and unexpected changes that can occur in the process itself have a positive effect on the speed of thinking, which also appeals to me. Developing such mental qualities in oneself contributes to intense mental activity that helps me to win at online casino slots jennycasino.com , which brings incredible pleasure and joy of victory.

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Onlinepromo said..
For my entertainment, I have always chosen very complex online games, because only in this way the interest and desire to complete the game with a victorious finale increases, and besides, it develops, and thereby increases the personal intellectual level, which by the way is very important for the self-development of the individual. In addition, abrupt and unexpected changes that can occur in the process itself have a positive effect on the speed of thinking, which also appeals to me. Developing such mental qualities in oneself contributes to intense mental activity that helps me to win at online casino slots jennycasino.com , which brings incredible pleasure and joy of victory.

So, you are a coiner then?

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FormulaNova said..

Onlinepromo said..
For my entertainment, I have always chosen very complex online games, because only in this way the interest and desire to complete the game with a victorious finale increases, and besides, it develops, and thereby increases the personal intellectual level, which by the way is very important for the self-development of the individual. In addition, abrupt and unexpected changes that can occur in the process itself have a positive effect on the speed of thinking, which also appeals to me. Developing such mental qualities in oneself contributes to intense mental activity that helps me to win at online casino slots jennycasino.com , which brings incredible pleasure and joy of victory.

So, you are a coiner then?

Nah. Bot named Online promo

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FormulaNova said..

Onlinepromo said..
For my entertainment, I have always chosen very complex online games, because only in this way the interest and desire to complete the game with a victorious finale increases, and besides, it develops, and thereby increases the personal intellectual level, which by the way is very important for the self-development of the individual. In addition, abrupt and unexpected changes that can occur in the process itself have a positive effect on the speed of thinking, which also appeals to me. Developing such mental qualities in oneself contributes to intense mental activity that helps me to win at online casino slots jennycasino.com , which brings incredible pleasure and joy of victory.

So, you are a coiner then?

Nah. Bot named Online promo

I used to receive regular cheques for minor wins in lotto of between $12 and $23 and wondered why they had stopped coming.
Apparently lotto stopped giving winnings like that and I had accrued $2500

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Rails said..
Nah. Bot named Online promo

I think Onlinepromo may have a point.

For my entertainment, I have always chosen very complex online games, because only in this way the interest and desire to complete the game with a victorious finale increases, and besides, it develops, and thereby increases the personal intellectual level, which by the way is very important for the self-development of the individual. In addition, abrupt and unexpected changes that can occur in the process itself have a positive effect on the speed of thinking, which also appeals to me. Developing such mental qualities in oneself contributes to intense mental activity that helps me to win at online casino slots jennycasino.com Seabreeze.com.au forums, which brings incredible pleasure and joy of victory.