medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Read this article and share it.

Spot on. A well researched and mathematically correct analysis.

As he says, delaying action by one day will increase cases by 40%. Acting early and decisively enough to prevent the health system from overloading, you can reduce fatalities by a factor of 10.

If you don't read the article, here is the executive summary.

"When you're done reading the article, this is what you'll take away:

The coronavirus is coming to you.
It's coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It's a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.
As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this. You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won't it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?But in 2-4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won't criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision."

7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/speed-trumps-perfection-boss-of-world-health-organisation-issues-blunt-coronavirus-warning-c-747300
The whole world was warned!

Its good analysis, but the problem is that the government need to enforce the isolation... but we already know this. Joe Public will find a reason to visit his mates thinking its not his problem, which is possibly true most of the time, except when it isn't and then spreads again.

Go Sco Mo, we want isolation, and when do we want it? Now!

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FormulaNova said..Go Sco Mo, we want isolation, and when do we want it? Now!

How long?
What do you do at the end?

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hilly said..

FormulaNova said..Go Sco Mo, we want isolation, and when do we want it? Now!

How long?
What do you do at the end?

For a start, 3 weeks. You then know that those people are not infected, or otherwise.

You keep them in isolation, and by that time you would have found the people that are infected, and you physically isolate them somewhere other than their homes.

You then do it again, and check on how many infected people you come up with this time. If it is increasing, you know you are doing something wrong.

You then do it again.

Then again.

You keep doing this until there is a vaccine.

I can't see any other option as there is always the potential for someone infected to come from somewhere else. So you can never be sure there are no more cases until the vaccine.

What I would like to see is one of those tracking apps to be deployed as it means that if you do find someone that has been infected, you should find it easier to the traceback and find people that are likely to have had contact, and then you test them and hope that it hasn't spread more...

Can anyone else see a solution? Without isolation there is always the risk of infection.

Might go sailing for a while.

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tarquin1 said..
7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/speed-trumps-perfection-boss-of-world-health-organisation-issues-blunt-coronavirus-warning-c-747300
The whole world was warned!

The WHO can jam it up their arses.
They played the whole thing down from the start, at the behest of their financial masters in China.
That 'warning' was so late it was a joke.

He says they have been ringing the alarm bells and no one listened. Now we have a pandemic.
South Korea started producing test kits back in December. They listened. Look where they are now.

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tarquin1 said..
He says they have been ringing the alarm bells and no one listened. Now we have a pandemic.
South Korea started producing test kits back in December. They listened. Look where they are now.

BS.
The WHO played it all down and encouraged travel to China, even back from when Wuhan was first locked down and only changed their tune once the horse had bolted.March was well late for them to finally pipe up like they actually gave a crap.

Also, the follow up article:

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

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kiterboy said..

tarquin1 said..
He says they have been ringing the alarm bells and no one listened. Now we have a pandemic.
South Korea started producing test kits back in December. They listened. Look where they are now.

BS.
The WHO played it all down and encouraged travel to China, even back from when Wuhan was first locked down and only changed their tune once the horse had bolted.March was well late for them to finally pipe up like they actually gave a crap.

But the WHO didn't wait till March. They declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern at the end of January. That followed inspections in Wuhan. They had called for action in mid January, a day or two after the first case was found outside China.

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Chris249 said..

kiterboy said..

tarquin1 said..
He says they have been ringing the alarm bells and no one listened. Now we have a pandemic.
South Korea started producing test kits back in December. They listened. Look where they are now.

BS.
The WHO played it all down and encouraged travel to China, even back from when Wuhan was first locked down and only changed their tune once the horse had bolted.March was well late for them to finally pipe up like they actually gave a crap.

But the WHO didn't wait till March. They declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern at the end of January. That followed inspections in Wuhan. They had called for action in mid January, a day or two after the first case was found outside China.

And still endorsed travelling to China.

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Pacey said..
Also, the follow up article:

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Great article, that chart on Hubei is so good. I have not seen one before that charts both onset and diagnosis. It highlights the expected lag from strong measures to actual effect. It was 12 days there, but I suspect it's probably 8 to 10 days here now with inproved response and testing. Be interesting too see how the curve is going in a week or so. Hopefully doing something similar.

miro.medium.com/max/1600/0*-BJlxK_X6Qhhrt11

EDIT: link not working. you have to highlight it all and right click - goto...

My wife is a teacher here in France. A 20 year old called this morning. He has just tested positive. They sent him home because he's not that bad. Think BAD flu. They are only accepting really bad,like dying people. And it's not that bad in our area.

You might be better of dead soon . Humanity has turned to sh1te

We've just had a summer where many people have volunteered to help others, and we're in an epidemic in which many steps are being taken to try to control and ease the effects - that's not "turning to shyte".

Go back 102 years and think of what they went through - just after a massive world war, an enormous epidemic that killed many young people and in some tiny villages, 90% of the inhabitants. And yet they got through it with vastly inferior medical care, far less money, and far less help than we get - and give.