www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2016-06-08/bom-set-to-launch-fortnightly-weather-outlook-service/7493004

So seems a good as time as any to raise how I've been disappointed by the BOM recently. My belief (happy to be corrected) is that no matter where you consume your forecast from, it's sourced from the BOM.

I've been sailing for decades now - and up until last summer I could confidently pick a weekend sailing day off the Wednesday afternoon forecast. This summer past, I've found it very frustrating; it looks like Sunday all week, only to see the forecast radically change on the Friday night.

My awesome other half is extremely accommodating; she knows how important sailing is to me, so when weekend social events come up she'll consult with me and I'll consult with the BOM. Up until this summer, I could nail it with confidence and really rated the BOM. But that no longer seems to be the case.

Anyone else getting a similar experience? Note: this is not an invite to launch into a political tirade about climate change, just asking if anyone else has seen a decline in the reliability of short term BOM forecasting.

I thought the BOM forecasting was spot on for the northern beaches (this is from their old forecaster, not METEYE).

but last summer was far less windy than previous, and had a big hole on my B&J gear. So I was using my Boggy gear a lot which was not that fun.

There's more than one set of computer modelling for forecasting. The modelling more or less get's their raw data from the same weather stations but its the interpretation and software applied that will throw up different results. There's a few weather forums out there that may answer your question better but for a peek on the complexity try here www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/numerical-weather-prediction

At the end of the day it's only a forecast, the further out you get the more it becomes a fluid guess. Have a look at the language they're using in that article you linked. It's all about weather 'outlooks' and not weather forecasts, there's a big difference between the two.

Fortnightly forecasts or outlooks would be great - except it just leaves all of us more exposed to the inevitable disappointment that comes....it's hard enough dealing with one week of excitement to be let down when those "forecasts" turn to custard...now we'll have two weeks worth. Sheesh....

I want a forecasting / forecast modelling gig at the BOM.

One of the few places that you get your job wrong and that's (apparently) ok...

The BOM are really good at forecasting !!!

the jokes about that not being the case are old and outdated .

3-4 days out they are almost excellent in detail , 7 days more chance of details being out .

the two week thing may be of use for farmers to prepare or be on the alert for a window of opportunity .

Yep, three day forecast is the only one to use. Not a problem if you organise your life around windsurfing properly. Weekends and holidays are permanently booked out for sailing. Other things happen only if there is no wind.

Select to expand quote

Chris6791 said...
There's more than one set of computer modelling for forecasting. The modelling more or less get's their raw data from the same weather stations but its the interpretation and software applied that will throw up different results. There's a few weather forums out there that may answer your question better but for a peek on the complexity try here www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/numerical-weather-prediction

At the end of the day it's only a forecast, the further out you get the more it becomes a fluid guess. Have a look at the language they're using in that article you linked. It's all about weather 'outlooks' and not weather forecasts, there's a big difference between the two.

I like the noaa sites. I think they use American navy data/forecasts. And we all know they have more money than anyone.

Select to expand quote

Shifu said..
Yep, three day forecast is the only one to use. Not a problem if you organise your life around windsurfing properly. Weekends and holidays are permanently booked out for sailing. Other things happen only if there is no wind.

+1

why not useing noaa and sea clear??