Hey guys who are the regular sailor's at primbee and will anyone else be joining me on the lake this weekend? The forecast looks good for high winds turning westerly. Hope this is right

Its a bit early to get an accurate wind forecast for the weekend. A useful exercise is to take a record of the Seabreeze graphs and see how they change over time.

Thanks for the reply. I have seen big forecasts disappear in the past but I remain ever the optimist and hope that this one comes to fruition. Hope you can make it if it does.

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Mobydisc said..

Its a bit early to get an accurate wind forecast for the weekend. A useful exercise is to take a record of the Seabreeze graphs and see how they change over time.

Moby it doesn't work that way at primbee, the first time I sailed there was a howling westerly mid December, it looks like a good n/easter at sanctuary point Saturday and a trip north on Sunday
I hate to say it but Monday could be the day

Does anyone sail from tallawarra power station anymore. It was very popular in the eighties but I haven't seen anyone there recently? .

if the forecast holds ill prob be there as botany sucks in west / nw

Anyone know what the weed / water depth is like atm?

The weed at primbee is more or less only the bottom dwelling slimy type. The water level changes more than ever before now that the entrance is open to the tidal influence so you might have to walk away out to get enough depth at low tide.1 foot of water here makes a huge difference. With 3 feet of water in a westerly the surface is still quite flat and free of weed.

Lake level was super low on Sunday. About 10m of mud to walk across before you even hit water at Primbee. Very flat though so probably only represents 10-15 cm of actual depth. Couldn't see any obstacles in the water which is comforting!!

Sailed Kanahooka today and pleasing to say the jellyfish seem to have disappeared.

Putting 2 and 2 together, the jellyfish have swum out to sea in such huge quantities that they have caused the lake level to drop due to their missing volume!!

Can't argue with that logic Eckas!
Looks like Monday to me.......

Looks like nothing now - doh

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keef said..

Mobydisc said..

Its a bit early to get an accurate wind forecast for the weekend. A useful exercise is to take a record of the Seabreeze graphs and see how they change over time.

Moby it doesn't work that way at primbee, the first time I sailed there was a howling westerly mid December, it looks like a good n/easter at sanctuary point Saturday and a trip north on Sunday
I hate to say it but Monday could be the day

Keith,

My point is a Seabreeze forecast a week out is unlikely to come through, especially for winds like westerlies and southerlies. Unless the wind is being predicted a week out somewhere with reliable wind, like Macquarie Island, then its foolhardy to make plans for the weekend based on a forecast from the Monday or Tuesday before on Seabreeze.

I've taken screenshots of how the forecast on Seabreeze has changed during the week. At least Saturday is still looking reasonably good. To me the forecast for Sunday means the wind will be coming from all over the place. Monday now looks like a reasonable day to go to work.




Tuesday forecast




Wednesday morning forecast






Wednesday forecast




Thursday morning forecast




Today's forecast.

Murphy's Law says:

"As soon as you talk about it happening, it won't".

Nah....it's going to be sh!t, NOBODY GO!

....There that should have fixed it .....Now shush.

Well it's 10.30 on Saturday and not a breath of wind at Dapto. I guess nothing has changed in forecasting over the past 20 years that's a shame. I thought with all the technology these days things would be better. although we're going to be forced to use the NBN now and that's a step backward cos it's twice as slow as the copper network and uses twice as much power. If you're looking forward to getting it connected don't.

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waterpistol said..

Well it's 10.30 on Saturday and not a breath of wind at Dapto. .

it's 11.45 and not a breath of wind in nowra , my guess is there will be a good n/e at sanctuary pt by 2.30pm

Where do you sail from at sanctuary point? I haven't been there for 24 year's and probably won't recognize the place now.

basically hasn't changed in that time , we sail from the boatramp that looks over to wrights beach the n/east is usually 5knts stronger than you guys get in Wollongong , if you want some flat-water speed sailing bring a weed fin