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Perth wind prediction?

Created by

ste > 9 months ago, 6 Oct 2018

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ste

WA

524 posts

6 Oct 2018 4:11pm

how do you think the season will be in Perth this year? Any predictions?

Gazuki

WA

1363 posts

6 Oct 2018 7:11pm

Average,.. were mid October and haven't started getting solid Seabreeze's yet.
Been very humid too,. I'm no exsexpbut tought.

ste

WA

524 posts

6 Oct 2018 8:09pm

No thats what I was thinking. Already getting lots of troughs developing.I suppose a bad season here is still pretty good.

cauncy

WA

8407 posts

6 Oct 2018 10:23pm

Not as good as the midwest

DJMWA

WA

345 posts

8 Oct 2018 1:52pm

Looks like BOM are forecasting an El Ni?o this summer. Cooler water for WA which means stronger sea breezes yeeeeeew.

eppo

WA

9762 posts

8 Oct 2018 7:51pm

Water is cold... even the water in Exmouth felt colder than previous years at the same time.

Getting some east / south pattens starting to happen. Won't be long.

Dave Whettingsteel

WA

1397 posts

8 Oct 2018 9:19pm

Indian Ocean Dipole is a lot higher than this time last year and was super high a couple of months ago. Might explain the slow start to the season, at least in the MidWest anyway. Looks similar to the 15/16 season dipole trend. I don't really recall how good / bad that year was. Last year was a ripper and the dipole trend looked quite different to this year so far.

I dont know exactly what influence the dipole has on the seabreeze, but all this cloudy humid crap definitely doesn't help.

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=iod

Gazuki

WA

1363 posts

9 Oct 2018 6:36am

2015/2016 was an epic season!! I kited almost everyday.

That was the season my son was born, I was on the water four hours before he was born. Misses wasn't happy sitting in the car, in labour whilst I kited,.

Dave Whettingsteel

WA

1397 posts

9 Oct 2018 10:18am

Select to expand quote

Gazuki said..
2015/2016 was an epic season!! I kited almost everyday.

That was the season my son was born, I was on the water four hours before he was born. Misses wasn't happy sitting in the car, in labour whilst I kited,.

I bet she wasn't!!!
Maybe the Dipole doesn't have much bearing on the seabreeze season then. Its supposed to have a big bearing on rainfall, heat etc. I wonder if it affects the start of the season, but its impact is minimal once we get in to it. Could use a BoM forecaster on seabreeze!

DJMWA

WA

345 posts

9 Oct 2018 10:29am

My understanding is they use the IOD strength/polarity to predict whether we will experience a el-nino/la-Nina (and the strength).

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/images/IOD-in-Australia.pdf

cauncy

WA

8407 posts

9 Oct 2018 11:17am

Select to expand quote

DJMWA said..
My understanding is they use the IOD strength/polarity to predict whether we will experience a el-nino/la-Nina (and the strength).

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/images/IOD-in-Australia.pdf

My understanding
if it's windy enough you go kiting

Dave Whettingsteel

WA

1397 posts

10 Oct 2018 1:47pm

Select to expand quote

cauncy said..

DJMWA said..
My understanding is they use the IOD strength/polarity to predict whether we will experience a el-nino/la-Nina (and the strength).

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/images/IOD-in-Australia.pdf

My understanding
if it's windy enough you go kiting

Meteorology / Climatology not an interest of yours Micko?

cauncy

WA

8407 posts

10 Oct 2018 3:29pm

Select to expand quote

Dave Whettingsteel said..

cauncy said..

DJMWA said..
My understanding is they use the IOD strength/polarity to predict whether we will experience a el-nino/la-Nina (and the strength).

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/images/IOD-in-Australia.pdf

My understanding
if it's windy enough you go kiting

Meteorology / Climatology not an interest of yours Micko?

More a wet Willy in the wind kind of guy

eppo

WA

9762 posts

13 Oct 2018 4:33pm

Pfff you don't guys in the Midwest don't need to worry yourself with such meteorological physics.

Its just gonna blow its ass off regardless of El "Ni?o. Nano. Nini, Nono, ...El fckn whatever

Weta

WA

893 posts

13 Oct 2018 6:21pm

Yeah and thanks to Mick daily forecasts will be posted in the General Kitesurfing Forum

Dave Whettingsteel

WA

1397 posts

13 Oct 2018 7:06pm

Select to expand quote

cauncy said..

Dave Whettingsteel said..

cauncy said..

DJMWA said..
My understanding is they use the IOD strength/polarity to predict whether we will experience a el-nino/la-Nina (and the strength).

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/images/IOD-in-Australia.pdf

My understanding
if it's windy enough you go kiting

Meteorology / Climatology not an interest of yours Micko?

More a wet Willy in the wind kind of guy

Haha despite Micks willy waving its been very ordinary here for quite a while. Am hoping it settles into a regular summer pattern soon.

Richoa

NSW

478 posts

15 Oct 2018 9:41am

I spoke to god, and requested Friday morning as a sleep in day.

Sorry to hear things are grim over there!

cauncy

WA

8407 posts

15 Oct 2018 7:12am

Select to expand quote

Richoa said..
I spoke to god, and requested Friday morning as a sleep in day.

Sorry to hear things are grim over there!

I'll give you that
Nsw 1
Wa 0

Gazuki

WA

1363 posts

18 Oct 2018 1:08pm

It's here,. I'm calling it. Started the 21st

There is a consistent swing every arvo according to windguru,...Yeeeewwwww!!!!!

www.windguru.cz/100636

ReefWalker

WA

117 posts

18 Oct 2018 1:59pm

Select to expand quote

Gazuki said..
It's here,. I'm calling it. Started the 21st

There is a consistent swing every arvo according to windguru,...Yeeeewwwww!!!!!

www.windguru.cz/100636

I hope you are right, but it doesn't look like a summer weather pattern to me :(

danno

WA

129 posts

18 Oct 2018 2:14pm

From what I understand, BOM predicting less cyclones this season, which generally means less troughs, less humid weather and therefore more sea-breezes.

www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/

gruezi

WA

3464 posts

18 Oct 2018 5:55pm

Lots of it.

Gazuki

WA

1363 posts

19 Oct 2018 7:16am

Seabreeze is now confirming windguru. Official start of the season, Sunday 21st October!!

bene313

WA

1347 posts

22 Oct 2018 10:58am

On the menu for this summer: Clear blue skies, low rainfall and honking SW'ers...

Positive IOD and El Nino Alert
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

CAUTION

WA

1097 posts

22 Oct 2018 11:55am

yes but when???
sheesh i remember the days of kiting regularly in september/october...
seems later and later.
sheesh i sound like an old bstrad

bene313

WA

1347 posts

23 Oct 2018 6:14am

^ tomorrow and every day thereafter?

Gazuki

WA

1363 posts

26 Oct 2018 6:52am

Yip, it's like someone flicked a switch,. Fully just turned on. Yeeeewwwww!

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