Seabreeze wind arrows are meaningless

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Created by

stonedpirate > 9 months ago, 10 Dec 2014

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 9:42am

Hi all

Seabreeze is my goto weather page for fishing, diving and sailing.

Lately, the arrows are just wrong most of the time.

Last night was supposed to be 25 knots in my area but i went out fishing anyway and it was practically still.

Usually if the arrows are green i dont bother going but i cant count how many green arrow nights have been perfect condition.

Could just be my area is out of whack.

How accurate do you find seabreeze predictions?

They seem to be good at predicting huge thunderstorm systems but for everything else, its just a crapshoot.

Haydn24

QLD

473 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:56am

Well since you are a stoned pirate, I can't take any weather observations from you seriously. It probably was 25knots and you were riding the waves as unicorns so you thought it was calm.

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 10:10am

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Haydn24 said..
Well since you are a stoned pirate, I can't take any weather observations from you seriously. It probably was 25knots and you were riding the waves as unicorns so you thought it was calm.

ummmm no

Bender

2236 posts

10 Dec 2014 10:16am

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stonedpirate said..
Hi all

Seabreeze is my goto weather page for fishing, diving and sailing.

Lately, the arrows are just wrong most of the time.

Last night was supposed to be 25 knots in my area but i went out fishing anyway and it was practically still.

Usually if the arrows are green i dont bother going but i cant count how many green arrow nights have been perfect condition.

Could just be my area is out of whack.

How accurate do you find seabreeze predictions?

They seem to be good at predicting huge thunderstorm systems but for everything else, its just a crapshoot.

Gee that's strange

. I did a Sup downwinder in Bunbury last night between 5pm and 6pm and it was blowing quite hard easily in the 15-22knt range straight southerly.

jn1

2683 posts

10 Dec 2014 12:46pm

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stonedpirate said..

How accurate do you find seabreeze predictions?

This is a good question. First up, I can only talk about Adelaide and surrounds (and not WA). Secondly, if you ask the Admins about their weather model, you won't get an answer (I popped the question a few years ago but got no response).

It appears that the seabreeze model's only inputs are pressure and tide. Local effects like seabreezes are not accounted for (or very poorly modelled if they are trying to model them).

This is actaully handy for me, because I am sometimes only interested in temperature, pressure, humidity, prevailing wind and any troughs hanging around.. and then make my own prediction based on these very accurately.

If you want authoritative answer, mosey on over to the BOM site. BOM has two prediction reports. One is useless the other is pretty good:

MET Eye - throw it in the bin. It's useless (well for windsports anyway).

www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

Old model: This is what I use, and it's accurately is about 80% to within 2-3 days.

www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml

Note: When I used to SUP board, I found both models harder to predict no wind, than predicting wind when I wanted to sail.

Hope that helps

mkseven

QLD

2315 posts

10 Dec 2014 12:37pm

Is stonedpirate talking about current observations? Like when every beacon was 15-25 yesterday here but it was maybe 10-12 at local spot. I've found increasingly over last year not to trust current observations as they are crap.

RPM

1549 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:02am

Seabreeze is the most accurate weather forecast known to man..

You could always lick your finger and hold it up to the wind, or even look out the window towards the trees...

If that fails and it's all too much then you should prob look at street SUP as it may be better suited to your lack of awareness of weather patterns and conditions.

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:07am

Thanks Jn, thats a very interesting and useful answer.

I was fishing and dropping crab pots in the leschanault estuary last night between 5 and 8pm and never experienced over 5 knots. 20+ knots were predicted.

Wish i had of saved the seabreeze graph for those times.

Just compare the green and yellow prediction arrows with the all red live weather arrows for the same time.

Rarely do they match.

The arrow predictions are practically useless so will work on developing my own predictions like Jn.

Cheers

JulianRoss

544 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:23am

I find the predictions are usually pretty good. I am in Perth metro, and for the rotto crossing and local surf they line up pretty well. In coastal Perth last night it was blowing pretty hard, from the predicted direction.. So for a free service I think its pretty good. BTW my old man was a meteorologist (long since retired), so I appreciate the difficulty in predicting rather than reporting weather. just my opinion.

laurie

3860 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:29am

Hi,

Seabreeze is primarily a coastal forecast.

Yesterday was exactly as predicted down the coast; a howling 25-30 knots down the coast.

I was on a christmas gig yesterday ended up on a boat in the swan river - just like you - in some places it was a mill pond, in others - 25-30 knots.

On land, you'll always experience major differences due to trees, hills, buildings, terrain etc interrupting/redirecting the wind...

Melville Water is famous for it's 45 degree wind shifts & gustiness, which, if you're a sailor, is what can make that kind of sailing so interesting (not so, if a kiter!)

Select to expand quote

JulianRoss said...
BTW my old man was a meteorologist (long since retired), so I appreciate the difficulty in predicting rather than reporting weather. just my opinion.

Indeed .. interesting article here:

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

Hope that helps!

laurie

3860 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:32am

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stonedpirate said..
Thanks Jn, thats a very interesting and useful answer.

I was fishing and dropping crab pots in the leschanault estuary last night between 5 and 8pm and never experienced over 5 knots. 20+ knots were predicted.

Wish i had of saved the seabreeze graph for those times.

Just compare the green and yellow prediction arrows with the all red live weather arrows for the same time.

Rarely do they match.

The arrow predictions are practically useless so will work on developing my own predictions like Jn.

Cheers

You can click "Yesterday" down the left hand side of menus to view yesterday's graphs:

www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/wa_yesterday.asp

Are you sure you're looking at the WA Graphs & Live winds?

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:33am

Thanks guys

I guess i just seen green arrows predicted for the whole week and have been waiting for the wind to get here. Three days in and not enough wind to worry about. As for the howling wind, going by the live readings on the busselton jetty and bunbury graphs, it doesnt show up. Maybe more accurate for metro areas but remote regional areas seem to be just a random guess extrapolated from more accurate metro data :P

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:36am

"You can click "Yesterday" down the right hand side of menus to view yesterday's graphs:"

Cool, thanks Laurie, thats handy.

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:38am

laurie

3860 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:38am

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stonedpirate said..
Thanks guys

... As for the howling wind, going by the live readings on the busselton jetty and bunbury graphs, it doesnt show up. ...

That's odd? Busso graph (below) was peaking at 27 knots ?

www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/wa2_yesterday.asp

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:46am

Yeah, well busso always seems a bit stronger than bunbury. I fish bunbury and the bunbury chart is what i go by.

Its usually spot on with thunderstoms or out by around 12 hours but other than that, most nights i have glass like conditions and look at the green arrows on seabreeze and shake my head.

Waited all week once for red arrows to go to 4 mile reef off the coast. Set out and was met with howling winds and chop on a red arrow day.

The arrows alone for offshore boating in a 4.3m tinny just arent reliable enough is all i'm saying. :P

Need me a bigger boat

Bender

2236 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:50am

I did my SUP downwinder in the leschenault inlet yesterday. It was windy.

See the BOM Obs for Koombana Bay here

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60701/IDW60701.94604.shtml

mkseven

QLD

2315 posts

10 Dec 2014 1:51pm

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RPM said..
Seabreeze is the most accurate weather forecast known to man..

You could always lick your finger and hold it up to the wind, or even look out the window towards the trees...

If that fails and it's all too much then you should prob look at street SUP as it may be better suited to your lack of awareness of weather patterns and conditions.

Bull**

Yes that'd be more accurate.

Damn guess that money was wasted studying meteorology at uni, though that's evident that i'm sitting here copping crap from seabreeze fanboi's.

Locally, sorry to say our current modelling is not correct & BOM has been more accurate, it doesn't change through the day for the same day as seabreeze does. Maybe our localised effects such as water temperature are becoming more pronounced. A quick look at Brisbane will see that current obs are not lining up with predicted, predicted chart will change this afternoon to reflect actual. I'm not sticking up for BOM either as their current method of forecasting events as they happen is also crap.

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 11:55am

I watched the sunset on the estuary sipping on an emu export on glass water on a tinny that wasnt rocking with big blue mannas clicking in the bucket behind me looking at green arrows on my iphone.

Bender

2236 posts

10 Dec 2014 12:06pm

Having windsurfed at Australind for the last 20yrs I can say.

Southerlies like we had yesterday rip straight down the middle of the inlet. The wind runs in a band in the deeper water (hence why I don't sail there when its a southerly).
From either shore there is a near glassy section that runs for the first 300 -400mts out before hitting the wind line. I'm guessing you weren't crabbing in the middle. I did see a boat up the northern end on the western side quite close to shore in the lee of a point. So there would have been stuff all wind where you were (if that was you)

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 12:15pm

Yeah, thats fair enough.

Going by one night on a sheltered waterway though is not what i'm basing it on.

I mainly fish from binningup reef to the huts on the coast and occasionaly head out to 4mile or the artificial reef when its calm. For the past few years, what i experience on the water rarely coincides with the graph.

I have missed many good nights due to green arrows and now dont let the arrows dictate when i go out. Time and time again i have great nights on green arrow days and ****ty nights on red.

Seacht

376 posts

10 Dec 2014 12:32pm

The ability to make your own customised spots could be handy here.
Windguru have that and I found it very useful.

laurie

3860 posts

10 Dec 2014 1:27pm

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Bender said..
Having windsurfed at Australind for the last 20yrs I can say.

Southerlies like we had yesterday rip straight down the middle of the inlet. The wind runs in a band in the deeper water (hence why I don't sail there when its a southerly).
From either shore there is a near glassy section that runs for the first 300 -400mts out before hitting the wind line. I'm guessing you weren't crabbing in the middle. I did see a boat up the northern end on the western side quite close to shore in the lee of a point. So there would have been stuff all wind where you were (if that was you)

Hit the nail on the head there Bender...

Two people literally within 1km of each other with completely different impressions of the forecast "accuracy".

Southerlies, are notoriously fickle in WA.

When kiting on the coast, it can be frustrating having horrid wind pockets of glass (caused by terrain), and yet 200m out to sea it's whitecapping!

Seriously, do read this, just to get an idea on how complex it is and how far as a civilisation we've come....

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

...

"Imagine a rotating sphere that is 12,800 kilometers in diameter, has a bumpy surface, is surrounded by a 40-kilometer-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and is heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 150 million kilometers away.

Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution and other locations are heated during another part of the revolution.

And imagine that this mixture of gases continually receives inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections.

Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster."

stonedpirate

248 posts

10 Dec 2014 2:04pm

I dont doubt that it is difficult. I just think it is probably too difficult for our feeble human minds.

I mean no disrespect to meteorologists and all the work they do.

But the results of all this work are either useful or they're not.

As far as local winds go, i'd say they are close to useless beyond avoiding major storms.

lidsy1

145 posts

10 Dec 2014 2:37pm

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stonedpirate said..
I dont doubt that it is difficult. I just think it is probably too difficult for our feeble human minds.

I mean no disrespect to meteorologists and all the work they do.

But the results of all this work are either useful or they're not.

As far as local winds go, i'd say they are close to useless beyond avoiding major storms.

I wouldn't say useless

Graphs, seabreeze, mixed with local knowledge, an understanding of how certain local meters record
e.g. meters at Norah head read over for everything without West, mega under for west

If you truly love sailing, then part of the commitment is creating your own data with experience, mixed with graphs, forecast to create the best sessions for yourself

Over the yrs, I've cursed seabreeze, but mixed with experience, its pretty reliable

As for truly predicating wind, doable, but must be done on a much smaller scale as to take into account certain locations intricacies

Which as Laurie stated, it can be different with in 10km from two points

Vince68

675 posts

10 Dec 2014 2:54pm

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laurie said..
Hi,Seabreeze is primarily a coastal forecast.
Yesterday was exactly as predicted down the coast; a howling 25-30 knots down the coast.

I was on a christmas gig yesterday ended up on a boat in the swan river - just like you - in some places it was a mill pond, in others - 25-30 knots.
On land, you'll always experience major differences due to trees, hills, buildings, terrain etc interrupting/redirecting the wind...
Melville Water is famous for it's 45 degree wind shifts & gustiness, which, if you're a sailor, is what can make that kind of sailing so interesting (not so, if a kiter!)

JulianRoss said...
BTW my old man was a meteorologist (long since retired), so I appreciate the difficulty in predicting rather than reporting weather. just my opinion.

Indeed .. interesting article here:www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx
Hope that helps!

Yep it was howling. I stopped in at Woodman Point and I got caned. Smallest sail 4.8m too big. smallest board 87L too big. body weight 76kg...not enough ballast, could have done with and extra 15-20kg. I'd say seabreeze might have under estimated. I am a rusty sailor but yesterday’s conditions made me look corroded. I did enjoy myself though...i got wet

SandS

VIC

5904 posts

10 Dec 2014 8:24pm

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jn1 said..

stonedpirate said..

How accurate do you find seabreeze predictions?

plus one for the

www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml . site . This is where all accurate weather forecasting originates , even the seabreeze forecast would be generated from the Bureau Of Meteorology's collected and analysed information.

Chris6791

3271 posts

10 Dec 2014 10:15pm

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lidsy1 said..

10km? I've noticed on a number of occasions both in Geraldton and Lancelin the difference between a 20 knot seabreeze/25 degrees and a 15 knot stinking easterly/40 degrees is as little as moving 500 metres. On one occassion moving as little as 200 metres away from the beach killed off a 25 knot smashing seabreeze.

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