4:05 AM Tue 22 Dec 2009 GMT
Rolex Sydney Hobart 2009 - Wind against tide, 30 knots and six metre seas and backless waves or a super fast down hill side with a 38 hour race record?
Yesterday the mostly likely long range weather model suggested there could be boat breaking seas in the 2009 Rolex Sydney Hobart race, with strong southerlies pushing against the fast flowing east Australian current.
Today Barry Hanstrum from the Bureau of Meteorology believes a different weather model might be closer to what will actually happen and that predicts there could be strong northerlies and should that come to pass, routing data suggests a new race record.
Hanstrum said this morning 'On Christmas Day we're expecting a southerly wind in Sydney but it will be a fairly weak change. Its likely to be in Sydney on Boxing Day morning. If we're on the southern side of the trough we'll be in a north easterly flow; if it's on the other side of the trough the flow will be more south easterly.'
'At the moment we're leaning towards a north easterly flow for the start of the race and then that north easterly building during Boxing Day (Saturday) afternoon and continuing to spread south and strengthen during Sunday.
'By Sunday afternoon down on the NSW south coast it's likely to be a 20 to 30 knot north easterly wind behind the fleet, so that would make for fast sailing conditions.
'The predictability of the forecast depends on where the remnants of ex tropical cyclone Lawrence will be.
'It's been a factor which has made this year's race less predictable longer range than in previous years. The remnants of that system are likely to be slow moving over NSW late in the week and that will mean a favourable north easterly flow for at least the first couple of days of the race...Saturday at this stage is still quite unpredictable.
'The reason why the forecasting guidance has been changing is that it's been difficult to model exactly where the remnants of the ex tropical cyclone will be and that's had a big influence on the predictability of the situation.
So the reality is its too early to tell what is going to happen as the divergence in the models show.
An interesting comment from CYCA Commodore Matt Allen today
'We put the GFS model (with maximum northerly flow) and Wild Oats XI polars together this morning.
'On the routing we're coming out with one day and 14 hours for Wild Oats XI so that well and truly beats the race record of one day, 18 hours and 40 minutes.
'The models will move around a little bit and that time will move in or out a bit but I think that's the exciting thing to watch over the next couple of days. The race record is pretty fast and Wild Oats XI is a faster boat than she was in 2005.'
In 2005 Bob Oatley's Wild Oats XI broke the race record crossing the finish line at 7:40:10.
If today's GFS forecast holds good with strong northerlies for the start and well into the night, she'd arrive much earlier, two hours before dawn on Monday 28th.
However if the EC model holds sway the trough will be off the NSW coast and deliver strong southerlies right into Bass Strait and that would allow the good citizens of Hobart time to finish their bacon and eggs before heading dockside to welcome the supermaxis.
You and the 100 boat fleet will have to wait to find out... which will it be?
by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team
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